[AR] Re: Aviation person?
- From: "Michael S. Kelly" <mskellyrlv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2019 07:04:38 -0600
The gigantic step forward would be the 3D printer that can replicate itself, in
its entirety. Tragedy would ensue if the first one didn’t include an “Off”
button.
Sent from Mail for Windows 10
From: Henry Spencer
Sent: Monday, December 30, 2019 1:56 PM
To: arocket
Subject: [AR] Re: Aviation person?
On Mon, 30 Dec 2019, David Summers wrote:
With respect, I submit that this smacks of "640K is more memory than
anyone will ever need". Metal 3d printing is in its infancy - things
would be expected to be getting dramatically more efficient every year,
so any analysis that depends on mere linear improvements of print times
should be carefully looked at.
Beware of assuming that every new technology will improve at the galloping
pace of semiconductors! That is *NOT* how things work, historically --
semiconductors are a huge anomaly, grossly abnormal. Vaguely-linear
improvement (broken by occasional step functions when breakthroughs
happen) is far more typical.
(And by the way, metal 3D printing is decades old, although for sure it's
gotten much more attention and investment recently. The downside of that
recent attention has been a vast outpouring of hype about it. No, for a
lot of problems it's probably not the best answer...)
Henry
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