Robert:
I had some very good folk look at BB XII back in '97. In those ancient
times it's potential payload to LEO had no economic value; acceleration was
also a very big deal: it is not obvious that the upper stage can take those
loads.
Twenty years of shrinking electronics present us today work a different
view. The problem--in my view--is that the costs are both very fuzzy and
subject to politically arbitrary outcomes: the only truly fixed costs in
this particular system are the last average contract cost of the Black
Brant stage and whatever the real costs are of assembling the hardware.
Everything else is a negotiation with the government that might could
result in very low prices...or not. And that last is strategicly important
because the government is a very unreliable partner; meaning that even if
you negotiate a highly favorable deal initially, your competitors will
politically force a less--likely much less--favorable deal after a few
years.
Better to build a vehicle that is inherently lower cost than anyone else
can match.
Bill
On Monday, December 14, 2015, <qbert@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Use a Black Brant XII with a revised flight profile and 1/8 the payload
just may get ya there for 600K in 2005-2006 dollars.
This was briefly visited but IIRC was thumbed down because of the G forces
involved.
Robert
At 05:15 PM 12/14/2015, you wrote:
I did a presentation at the last SEDS conference showing that $1000 per
pound (direct cost only) might be possible w/ an expendable solid....
Bill
On Monday, December 14, 2015, Anthony Cesaroni <acesaroni@xxxxxxxxxxx
<javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','acesaroni@xxxxxxxxxxx');>> wrote:
Sorry, that was meant for Bill off list.
Â
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
Â
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx');> [
mailto:arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx');>] On Behalf
Of William Claybaugh
Sent: Monday, December 14, 2015 6:06 PM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx');>
Subject: [AR] Future Skylon and F9 costs
Â
https://theconversation.com/spaceplanes-vs-reusable-rockets-which-will-win-51938
No idea where the cost chart comes from and do note that the F9 numbers
make an assumption about refurbishment that seems--to me--aggressive.
Bill