[AR] Re: Nels Anderson data request
- From: David Weinshenker <daze39@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 1 Dec 2015 18:31:52 -0800
On 12/01/2015 05:50 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
On average, there are two failures in the first 14 launches,
worldwide.
[...]
Rockets designed and built in the 1990's by smart guys with no previous
experience are not statistically different from rockets designed in the
1960's by smart guys with no previous experience.
For that matter, Falcon 1 shows that the same applies in the 2000's....
So what you're saying is that any newly-instituted rocket program
(i.e., one without an extant heritage of "most-of-the-same-people"
doing "similar" vehicles) is likely going to involve some debugging
at the beginning (i.e., over the course of the first few flight
firings) - independent of the exact design of the bird in question.
(Is this thought to be "new news" in some quarters? It seems (to me)
to be an instance of the "learning curve" that one might expect in
any complex technical effort!)
-dave w
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