[AR] Re: OT economy booster

  • From: William Claybaugh <wclaybaugh2@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Dec 2015 14:43:54 -0500

Ed:

Please see below:

On Wednesday, December 30, 2015, Edward Wright <edward.v.wright@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:


All borrowed money spent stimulates the economy in the short run.

That is a common fallacy which economists discredited long ago.

You overlook the fact that money has to come from somewhere. If you borrow
it, someone else can't. That may stimulate you, but at a cost to someone
else. There's no net stimulus unless you are more productive than that
someone else.

Read Von Mises.

Apollo can be considered as a war on the moon- it stimulated the
economy; there were spin-offs as well, but the main direct outcome from
that was a bunch of mostly useless junk lying underwater.

Building useless junk and sinking it underwater does not make you richer.
You can prove that experimentally, on a personal level. Just wreck your
car, then drive it into the river. Does that stimulate your household
economy?

Building useless junk makes you poorer because you waste resources that
could have been used for building something useful.

Any time anyone is borrowing money to do something, that stimulates the
economy, the money goes into wages, and that goes into spending on goods,
and that ripples out through the economy and the economy increases;

That is called the "Keynesian multiplier effect." Economists discredited
decades ago. Again, read Von Mises.


While much of this post is exactly correct, this comment is not.


If the same dollar bill passes through the hands of 7 people, that is $7
worth of "economic activity" according to Keynes. That's where the "every
dollar spent on NASA returns $7" bit comes from. But that is not a real
economic return, it's just a bookkeeping trick. If you and I trade the same
dollar back and forth 7 times, but never produce anything of value, we've
generated $7 worth of acitivity according to Keynes. But, in fact, we've
produced nothing.


Sorry, the $7 number comes from actual measurements of the Keynesian
multiplier; not from Keynes himself, who merely--and correctly--observed
that a newly printed dollar (or pound sterling, in his case) must create
more than $1 of overall economic activity because the first person to
receive it spends it and the merchant who receives it uses it again, to buy
goods which he then sells, and so on.

Studies over the past 3/4 century have confirmed that the basic effect is
about a factor of seven. USG spending--in multiple studies--has been shown
to have a multiplier of about 5, excepting military spending, which runs
closer to 3.

You are, however, correct that the NASA spinoffs storytelling is bullshit.

This subject is completely off-topic for this forum and I have only here
participated because we have an international following, some of whom may
not have studied under Nobel Prize winning economists and so might
mistakingly think the assertion that the Kensyian Multiple Effect has been
debunked is accurate. It is not; that effect is measureable and is
regularly measured.

I will not further participate in this wildly off-topic subject.

Bill



What you're arguing for is the economic equivalent of a perpetual-motion
machine.

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