Seen on ArXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.04718
The random walk of cars and their collision probabilities with planets
Hanno Rein, Daniel Tamayo, David Vokrouhlicky
On February 6th, 2018 SpaceX launched a Tesla Roadster on a Mars
crossing orbit. We perform N-body simulations to determine the fate of
the object over the next several million years, under the relevant
perturbations acting on the orbit. The orbital evolution is initially
dominated by close encounters with the Earth. The first close
encounter with the Earth will occur in 2091. The repeated encounters
lead to a random walk that eventually causes close encounters with
other terrestrial planets and the Sun. Long-term integrations become
highly sensitive to the initial conditions after several such close
encounters. By running a large ensemble of simulations with slightly
perturbed initial conditions, we estimate the probability of a
collision with Earth and Venus over the next one million years to be
6% and 2.5%, respectively. We estimate the dynamical lifetime of the
Tesla to be a few tens of millions of years.
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Perry E. Metzger perry@xxxxxxxxxxxx