A COUP IN THE MAKING?
With Anti-IMF Candidate Surging in Polls, Ecuadors Moreno Flies To DC Amid
Talk of Suspending Election
Adding to worries that a Bolivia-style coup might be imminent in Ecuador,
Lenín Moreno will spend his final days in office in Washington, DC, where
hes been meeting with members of the Biden administration.
by Alan Macleod
Mint Press News
February 01st, 2021
By Alan Macleod
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Polls show socialist, anti-imperialist candidate Andrés Arauz to be the
clear frontrunner in Ecuadors presidential elections slated to take place
this Sunday, February, 7. Some even suggest the 35-year-old might receive
double the votes of his nearest competitor in the first round of voting. Yet
it now appears that the greatest danger to Arauz is not his rival
candidates, but the threat of authorities canceling the election to prevent
his victory.
International groups are flying in to monitor the contest, scheduled for
February 7, with some calling for increased involvement of regional bodies
like the Organization of American States (OAS). However, given its role in
the far-right military coup in Bolivia in 2019, it is far from clear whether
they would improve or hinder the process. Formed in 1948 and headquartered
in Washington, D.C., the body has consistently allied itself with U.S.
foreign policy directives, permanently suspending Cuba from its members in
1962. Since then, it has often been used to legitimate American intervention
in the region.
Only adding to the worries that a Bolivia-style coup might be imminent in
Ecuador is current president Lenín Morenos decision to spend his final few
days in office not in his homeland, but in Washington, D.C., where he has
been meeting with senior members of the new Biden administration, the
managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and OAS chief
Luis Almagro, who is currently under investigation for his part in Bolivias
coup.
Rafael Correa, president of the country between 2007 and 2017, raised the
alarm on social media, warning that the National Electoral Council of
Ecuador is meeting to discuss suspending the elections because of Arauzs
imminent victory, while Morenos trip to Washington is an attempt to get
official approval for the plan.
The OAS and Ecuadors neoliberal president are looking to suspend elections
so as to cling on to power and stop the coming victory of the Correa left.
In Bolivia, a similar plan failed after the August general strike proved
that the coup regime could not withstand an uprising, wrote MintPress
Ollie Vargas from Bolivia.
With Likely Victory of Andrés Arauz, Ecuador Will Join Latin America's
Anti-Imperialist Surge
Ecuador is on the verge of becoming the latest Latin American nation to move
away from the IMF elect a progressive, anti-imperialist gov't.
MintPress News | Alan Macleod | Jan 25
Arauz: anti-poverty, anti-imperialism, anti-IMF
The youthful Arauz is a disciple of Correa. Indeed, he said he would have
chosen him as his running mate had Moreno not banned him from politics and
forced him to flee to Belgium. If Correa returns to Ecuador under the
current administration, he will be immediately imprisoned on corruption
charges. Unlike Moreno, who received billions of dollars from the
organization, Arauz has promised to rid Ecuador of the IMF, an organization
he sees as predatory and a tool of the United States. He is also proposing
to greatly increase public spending, raise taxes on the wealthy and increase
capital controls on money leaving the country. He aims to continue Correas
anti-poverty and anti-imperialism drives, suggesting he will reconnect with
other leftist governments like Bolivia and Venezuela and seek a more
amicable relationship with China. Thus, it is clear why both the IMF and
U.S. government would wish to see his victory stalled or prevented.
Ecuador IMF Protest Photo of the day
A man holds an anti-IMF sign depicting Lenin Moreno as a vulture at a
protest in Quito, July 16, 2020. Dolores Ochoa | AP
Arauz will win unless they steal it from him, said Professor Steve Ellner,
managing editor of the journal Latin American Perspectives. After all,
Correa had a 60% favorable rating when he left office. Moreno is completely
discredited, and [conservative candidate Guillermo] Lasso has been around
too long to be considered a new face for business in politics and in
addition is associated with global capital.
Ecuadors tug of war
Serving for ten years, Correa was the first president in modern history to
be re-elected in Ecuador and presided over a period of remarkable
tranquility for the often politically chaotic nation. In his time in office,
he managed to reduce poverty by 38% and extreme poverty by 47% while also
doubling social spending. Economic and political independence were key
themes of his rule, too. He renegotiated the governments share of the
nations substantial oil revenues from 13% to 87%, hitting foreign energy
corporations bottom lines hard. He also ejected all American troops from
the country and forged regional ties with other like-minded neighboring
nations. Ecuador also offered asylum to a number of Western dissidents,
among them Wikileaks cofounder Julian Assange.
Correas vice-president, Moreno was elected on the express promise to carry
on his legacy. However, almost immediately, he reversed most of his
predecessors economic and political stances, inviting the IMF back in the
country and moving closer to the U.S. Poverty and unemployment grew again.
He also presided over one of the most inept COVID responses seen worldwide.
On orders from the IMF, he had previously slashed public health budgets by
36% and expelled hundreds of Cuban doctors in an effort to please the Trump
administration. As a result, the country was overwhelmed by COVID-19, with
images of bodies being left in the streets for days going viral worldwide.
The situation in Ecuador is very fucked up. I dont even have the means to
[explain in] English all of whats happening. The new Minister of Health is
an incredible idiot. Coronavirus or not this country is in big trouble with
this wildly incompetent government, said MintPress contributor and Quito
resident Camila Escalante.
Bodies in the Streets: IMF Imposed Measures Have Left Ecuador Unable to Cope
with Coronavirus
Ecuador is near collapse under the strain of coronavirus after the gov't
stripped state services nearly bare at the behest of the IMF.
MintPress News | Alan Macleod | Apr 13, 2020
Economic issues are the primary concern for voters in this election, with
32% identifying poverty and 25% unemployment as their key worries. The
countrys poverty rate jumped from 25.7% in December 2019 to 58.2% in June
2020, with extreme poverty quadrupling over the same period. A second issue
is the ongoing COVID crisis, the latest chapter of which revolves around
vaccines meant for public hospitals being diverted to private clinics in
affluent areas, a scandal that has already been dubbed vaccines for the
elites, cardboard coffins for the rest.
Arauzs two closest rivals for the presidency are Guillermo Lasso, a
65-year-old banker and former Coca-Cola executive who has a strong following
among the countrys upper-middle class and 51-year-old indigenous leader
Yaku Pérez. Pérez came to national attention after leading protests against
Morenos austerity measures in 2019. However, he has distanced himself from
the left. When asked to comment on Arauzs plan to give $1,000 to one
million Ecuadorian mothers who are heads of their households, he replied
that he opposed the idea because they would probably spend it all on beer
that same day. Both trail Arauz in the polls, meaning that he could achieve
outright victory in one round of voting, a rare achievement in a multi-party
democracy. However, given the plots brewing, Arauz may have more to fear
from the U.S. and his own election authorities than from his political
rivals.