From: Ryan Grim <badnews@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 3:13 PM
To: miriamvieni@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: And you say there are no heroes left
The Senate is looking increasingly in play for Democrats, as Trump’s
horrifying inability to respond with a modicum of seriousness to the
pandemic continues to drain support from the Republican Party, and, not
incidentally, to kill people at a rate of thousands per day. Trump’s push to
reopen the country appears driven by a simple political calculus: Opening
the country will lead to a surge of deaths, but, from a political
perspective, it’s better for Trump if those deaths occur now rather than
closer to the election, giving the economy time to improve. I know that
sounds sociopathic, but there is simply no other plausible logic to it.
And you say there are no heroes left
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVUMtuwyAQ_JpwtIBCbB849NLfsDBMElQMCNap3K8
vbnrpag-r0Wjn4SzhnuthSm7E9oa6BG-ueuZ8Zt4oLyY9sdCWWwU2G6KhuoOVfY3BWQo5nXwxCsE
eZuTipuSN420UapKjneG5VnIcYd0Kx06Rxe4-IDkYPFGPnMCieRCVdnl7v8iPvqv1CV9taPvayLr
PweWtwwW5RPRDToLzKwtGcsm5FlLMQmo1iCHe12_0idleFN_u8t8PVs0WarDbsxsInZAL5RRDwpB
AZ6ils7Y9BToWJLtG-FdeevXz65-OAnP6iyBCfYG9BKXlrCXrgj73ppL5i_EDqLJ6Jg> Ryan
Grim
May 12
The Senate is looking increasingly in play for Democrats, as Trump’s
horrifying inability to respond with a modicum of seriousness to the
pandemic continues to drain support from the Republican Party, and, not
incidentally, to kill people at a rate of thousands per day. Trump’s push to
reopen the country appears driven by a simple political calculus: Opening
the country will lead to a surge of deaths, but, from a political
perspective, it’s better for Trump if those deaths occur now rather than
closer to the election, giving the economy time to improve. I know that
sounds sociopathic, but there is simply no other plausible logic to it.
Recent polls have found close races or non-trivial Democratic leads in
Maine, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, and Montana. Democrats would
need to win four of these, assuming they lose Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama
and hold Gary Peters in Michigan.
That brings us to Georgia, where Democrats have not one but two shots at a
seat. One GOP primary pits scandal-plagued Kelly Loeffler against the
far-right Doug Collins. Both are beatable for different reasons. The other
seat is held by Republican David Perdue, the former CEO of Dollar General
who was elected in the ebola year of 2014. Perdue, like Loeffler, is under
fire for his stock trading, and today
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkEGOwyAMRU9TdomACW2yYNHNXCMi4LRWCURgOsq
cfpyphYxkfev7P-8IHrkcds-VRKtQZgz2aiYpJxHsENRoRoF1XgvA5jBaKg3E3paI3hHmdOrVTSn
xtKNer94PRq0r-CGMRjlp9OTkut6uwQdxmsyuBYTkwcIbypETiGifRHu9fN0v-psfPQETQfGwU-_
zxiMtteRPGm5KcwvujaHbWwkNugqJc3TelRAPQl-7Stm_WCbQnqvSKK0mpc3Qqz4-ll_gitldBrk
9dF_bUsn512kmit2woNvefCWyIO-UU8QEfQI6k8-s2lpCOmb2XSKEDxT6QPwPSccONsFPjUCc5DN
kUgPzMFqwYciMM9nFhVP2B0R2hy8> I published an investigation into his
relationship with an Atlanta-based startup that changed the terms of his
compensation package after he was elected to the Senate in a way that ended
up benefitting him to the tune of millions.
The
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkEGOwyAMRU9TdomACW2yYNHNXCMi4LRWCURgOsq
cfpyphYxkfev7P-8IHrkcds-VRKtQZgz2aiYpJxHsENRoRoF1XgvA5jBaKg3E3paI3hHmdOrVTSn
xtKNer94PRq0r-CGMRjlp9OTkut6uwQdxmsyuBYTkwcIbypETiGifRHu9fN0v-psfPQETQfGwU-_
zxiMtteRPGm5KcwvujaHbWwkNugqJc3TelRAPQl-7Stm_WCbQnqvSKK0mpc3Qqz4-ll_gitldBrk
9dF_bUsn512kmit2woNvefCWyIO-UU8QEfQI6k8-s2lpCOmb2XSKEDxT6QPwPSccONsFPjUCc5DN
kUgPzMFqwYciMM9nFhVP2B0R2hy8> story is here, and here’s my appearance
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkMFuxCAMRL8mHCMgYTccOFSq9h96iiCYLCqBFMx
G6deXdC2fRs8azywaYU35VHsqSGqBPHurbkJSKolVo2WTmIgvs8sAm_ZBYa5A9mqCXzT6FC-e3Rk
jTyWFHJyzxt1HkA7u_CYnOvDJiWFh0razZjLraj3EBRS8IJ8pAgnqibiXbvjo-KPtcRz9mSpWA_2
StkvRuDy74fHqhs-1_GzBGtzdV8dvDjTWDE3_v-gNEK845ZQKxplkXIw968NqfqFNSLob6bbyvlR
TUC_flwHJavPZ6-3VHvMNSDumGHyEPgJeYedGbTV6PGeI2gSw7x7w3dt_Ljx3UBGOEgAR8lts5Yy
CS8FJM7SpNRiV0fbC_gBvsoPO> on Rising this morning to talk about it.
The question of why precisely the U.S. hit a shortage of N95 masks for
healthcare workers, which has resulted in countless needless deaths, comes
down to a deliberate choice by HHS superiors to ignore pleas to get ahead of
the situation. In January and February, the masks were available, but the
Trump administration did everything they could to make sure we didn’t
produce or acquire them.
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkEGOwyAMRU9TdomAQJMsWMxmrhGR4DbWEEBgWmV
OP2RqISNZz_r-f7MEz5hPk2IhVgvkBZ2565nzmTmjnJj0xLAsjwxwWPSGcgWW6upxs4QxXLwYhWC
7medpHFbuhB70w6mHHvUk72pySqm7EIpdIoutDiFsYOAF-YwBmDc7USq34esmv9ujHTAQ5A0S9Vs
82khyydvH9dXG1raYY7AvzLV07x0LeVh9fEPu9r10YdZdStA4huba5VpIMQupVS96_1x_oZWP9qb
48ZR9qWshu_1caiybAzPa49XOxAbERDF4DNAHoMv60qijBqRzgWBXD-6TCn1S_HdJZwIT4F08ULP
yGbaolJazlqwJutjyDGa17sL-AOAWhck> This horrifying story was first reported
by Sharon Lerner, and has to be read to be believed.
I also have a recent piece, with Akela Lacy, about a fun race going on in
North Jersey,
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkMtuxCAMRb9m2CUCEjKTBYtu-hsRD0_ilkcEzlT
p15d0LGQk69q-Ps4QrLmces-V2FGhLOj1pGbOZ-b16MVDPRjW5VkAosGgqRzA9sMGdIYwp0sv7kK
wTUurxvs8Wj_yiVs72UEJZefHMD1n9Rie7FqymMMjJAcaXlDOnIAFvRHt9TZ83ORne7QBJoLiYKf
e5dhKkkvePq6uNLWU4Kf7glLh7DzE7Eoz47q9YDTl7EywmLuKBWq3gaNculxhPaCY1stQX_O4ElL
MQqqxF31Y7S-0CNncRh5X2dfDVjLu-3LAio5Y0MRXs45NkHfKKWCCPgFdOJamikdCOhdIxgbwb1L
0Jvt_OZ076Ga8BqB23rvY8I1KzkqyttDnxjhpa_wl-wPHsI40> where an obscure machine
politician is being challenged for a congressional seat he’s quietly held
for 14 years. It’s kind of a crash-course in the insanity of New Jersey
politics. (And thanks to several readers who live in the district for
helping me with the context of the race.)
House Democrats
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkNGOrCAMhp9muMMAyqoXXOzNeQ2DUGeaRSBQx3i
efnGnadqk-dP-_ZwleKZymZwqsaNCWdCbLz0LMTNvBi8nPTGsy1YAdovBUDmA5WMN6CxhirdejlK
yl7GjdZPdVi1hGqAfegly1Ku2q5_FvHl2H1ns4RGiAwNvKFeKwIJ5EeX66L8f6l_L8zy7nAISutS
5tLdRhLO2poQSrQndilStvFLzzD3syRVLlWcIqSJvct5zKhhCs8hdKinaN5aj8gIBYeM52MiVloM
YGZp7r9BSyVkqPXSyC8_1P7QIyT4GsT9VV4-1knU_tyFWzI4F7f5un2ATpEwpBozQRaCbztJU-xG
RrgWiXQP4Dzj6gP4DQVcGcz8WgAjKZ9hoDlrNWrF20KeGPJrV-lv2C_o7k6c> are out with
their opening offer toward a new round of coronavirus relief, and they’re
calling it the Heroes Act. It’s being called a $3 trillion package, and
progressives are frustrated that
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkMtuxCAMRb8mLCMg7wWLStX8RgTBSVF5RGBmmn5
9nY7lhW0d-dp30whHypc6U0FWC-TVWTUOC-cLs6q3Yh5m5sq6Z4CgnVeYK7CzGu82jS7FmxeTEOx
LGbHDwEe9j2DmTQg-L7sde9EJM22LHtgtsupqHcQNFDwhXykC8-oL8SxN99HIByW-HCLkdkuBuqB
_DOQDMtUFNdZChZCDkBOfpBxlN0-TkF3TPWjFp-TMKckl50SIhcC-Fa0_zC9Q-KSbnodDtqUa2rZ
93yosq-Cy0-FJlzkC0okpehehjYD3tytRoUaH1wpRGw_2bQS-jft_DK8TVIRX8XCf_x6SO_0gl0E
yErSJLIzKaHtjfx6fgCM> some of their key priorities, such as Pramila
Jayapal’s Paycheck Guarantee proposal, were left out. In a testy caucus
conference call, Jayapal challenged Pelosi, and leadership aides later said
that one problem with Jayapal’s idea was
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMtuxCAM_JrlGAEJZDlw6KW_EfFwNqgEIjC7Sr-
-pLF88GM0Y48zCK9cTn3kiqRVKEvwWgpFqSJeT549xZOEuqwFYDchaiwNyNFsDM5gyOnCs5kxsun
Ve7NOBiwoOY-jdLO0ozLcO_FcJ8rJJbKY5gMkBxreUM6cgES9IR71MX49-HdP_AREKIPLe-82MLh
BqS4f0NuKBlvtBeNCqZkyKWYp-UzVLEnQnHJKBeNM9f00sCG-7C_0iNk8Jrq_-FCb7STu5-InRe-
hBLO_-02hA_KBOcWQYEiA159LR-0tBTwXSMZG8LcFeFv2_xKeB-gEnxrhOvwedl8mwZXgpAv63M1
L2hp_wf4Anqt_1w> that it didn’t have legislative language yet. (Ways and
Means Chairman Richard Neal,
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkE1uxCAMhU8z7BIBE6bJgsVseo2IHzexSgARZ6r
09HU6CGHL-qzHe8ERLKWdtpadxLFDmzHah5mknES0Q1SjGQXu81cD2BwmS-0AUQ-fMDjCki9efSg
lViujGZwapTGRt8bBj8ZM7nHXKj58DLzGIrM7IkIOYOEF7SwZRLIrUd1v9-dNf_KlFTATtACV-lA
2HmmpJi5KXv2dn9iOpasNA-al85hSx_3qWuwyuMSAQKulltIorSalzdCrPi3-F_ik4m6D3Bbd74f
fyYXvS0Y0u2FDt734f8hAqVRywgx9Bro8z0xtR0Y6Z8jOJ4jvOOgd3789OivYDD97AmIP7yFnNBg
9GS1YMBYOMlvv4oX9AamOg5I> who faces a primary challenge from Alex Morse,
kept Jayapal’s legislation out, he said, because it was too expensive.) Yet
House leaders have been explicit that this is a messaging bill, not intended
to go immediately into law, so the precision of the language shouldn’t
matter.
But also, the Office of Legislative Council, which produces legislative
language, is bottlenecked and only leadership priorities are being handled.
That’s a neat Catch-22: Leadership will only put your idea into the major
package if legislative language is already written, but you can only get the
language written if leadership approves of the idea. The centralizing of
power in the “people’s House” is getting quite extreme. At least the House
is doing something, finally.
Still, our entire political and economic system remains in denial.
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkMluwzAMRL8musmwvCU-6NBLf8PQMk7UaDEkOoH
79ZUbgidyMEM-owj3lA-5pUJsL8iLs3Ia57admZWDFbfxxlxZ1gwE5bykvINtu_bOKHIpnnpxFYI
95CB0P_aTgV7XwUwz9FX3gDLjdDX9NLEzZFG7dYgGEi_kI0UwLx9E26X_unTftd_vd2OxIlqLkEx
W5mi2jFLOHXgELFc8K1sv8P7g1q0rMiLxkCw8p8RJmacHpwe4SS9nuZi5ya64wvXBf1RA4U9-V15
n5ehRjZmTXdu17Sg6MYtuHBrR-Lv-RS2f1GVow71ryq7L6d2YFFiWwWWnwqu-46ogbZSidxFNBJ2
IlqoKe3R0LIhKe9gPPfrQ_qdBxwYZ8S4eRMifYUU6jN08dqwG2lS5R6mVPWV_xzGYZQ> A
piece by James Galbraith puts it in stark and simple language:
Even if the pandemic is now contained the economy will not revert to
“normal.” The United States is a premier producer of energy, aerospace,
advanced information technologies and financial services. It assembles many
million automobiles, appliances and other consumer durable goods every year.
The oil sector has suffered a price collapse and borders now on mass
bankruptcy; when fracking wells are capped they will sand up and become very
costly to reopen, so the US energy-based economic expansion is over.
Airplanes are lined up in parking spaces; no new civilian passenger
airliners will be needed indefinitely. Households who are either unemployed
or working from home (and therefore not commuting) or that face deferred
rent and mortgages will not soon be in the market for new cars; in any event
the old ones will last longer as they are being driven much less. As office
buildings remain empty, new ones will not be built. Similarly for retail
stores, already driven to the wall by on-line ordering and deliveries. The
banking sector is on the hook for energy loans gone bad, and for household
debts, and for corporate loans that will be at risk once the bailout money
runs low. The debts built up during the pandemic will be defaulted in many
cases, ruining credit for the households affected. All of which foretells a
long depression even under the best foreseeable public health conditions. A
cycle of infections and lock-downs will make all of this that much worse.
There is an illusion about, that the recent prosperity can be revived by
“reopening.” But many industries – aircraft, airlines, hotels, automobiles,
appliances, commercial construction, energy – will definitely shrink,
whatever happens now and no matter how much money they receive. The bailouts
were a measure predicated on the idea that these industries were facing just
a temporary interruption. But it is difficult to see how bankruptcies and
liquidations can be avoided if there is no revival in the demand for
product. And large-scale production relies on interlinked supply-chains, so
that if a single major producer (for example one of the majors in the
automotive sector) fails, there is a risk of cascading liquidations (for
example in auto parts), making operations difficult – perhaps impossible –
for the survivors. In these industries the supply chains and subcontractors
are much larger in the aggregate than the assembly operations of the final
production firm.
Higher education, a large sector in America, faces a crisis of high costs,
collapsing enrollments and the actual alternative of cheap on-line
instruction in many fields. This was already in the works for demographic
reasons, and is now being accelerated by the loss of household wealth.
Health care, ten times larger, also faces financial difficulties as millions
are losing their insurance and – for the moment anyway – as accidents, other
infectious diseases and such are down, depriving doctors and hospitals of
reimbursements. Service industries from restaurants to retailers cannot
function profitably at one-quarter of capacity; bars, nightclubs, and most
sporting venues cannot reopen at all.
You’re on the free list for
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxVULtuxCAQ_BpTWoDhbBcUae43LB5rHwoGC5aLnK8
PjtNktdVoRvOwGmFL-VRHKkhqgbx4px5ypnQmTgnHJjkRX5Y1A-zaB4W5AjmqCd5q9ClefDYyRl5
KsMHBINzKB2f4Y7KzBjnycWVaCLtKcpksujoP0YKCN-QzRSBBvRCP0g0fHX-2N9pF-Cp9qaagtp-
9TXuDiVecckol42xmXIqe9WEz39AuJN0Jum_8n4hktfvs9f5ujr4R0oEpBh-hj4BXi6Wx9ho9ngt
EbQK4uyDeg_wGxvMAdQUKgAj5BltrIfksOWmGLrVpovrL_QOCHHYH> Bad News. For the
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1701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW/Washington, DC 20016
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxNkEluxCAURE9jlhaDxwWLSFFfw8Lw3UFhsODTkXP
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kpBaaWLWD3JVpsR_xoYru>
<http://email.mg2.substack.com/o/eJwlj0tuxSAMRVdThhGQ0JABa4n4OK9W-URgXpWuvqT
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dI-u_J18SqyZhRZve4xMOoJxUcsQ>