Truthdig
Intelligence Experts to Trump: Rethink Syria Escalation
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/message_intelligence_experts_to_trump_re
think_syria_escalation_20170411/
Posted on Apr 11, 2017
By Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity / Consortiumnews
(https://consortiumnews.com/2017/04/11/trump-should-rethink-syria-escalation
/)
A map of Syria. (United Nations / Wikimedia
(https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Un-syria.png) )
MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)*
SUBJECT: Syria: Was It Really A Chemical Weapons Attack?
1 We write to give you an unambiguous warning of the threat of armed
hostilities with Russia with the risk of escalation to nuclear war. The
threat has grown after the cruise missile attack on Syria in retaliation for
what you claimed was a chemical weapons attack on April 4 on Syrian
civilians in southern Idlib Province.
2 Our U.S. Army contacts in the area have told us this is not what
happened. There was no Syrian chemical weapons attack. Instead, a Syrian
aircraft bombed an al-Qaeda-in-Syria ammunition depot that turned out to be
full of noxious chemicals and a strong wind blew the chemical-laden cloud
over a nearby village where many consequently died.
READ: The Pandoras Box of War
(http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_pandoras_box_of_war_20170407)
3 This is what the Russians and Syrians have been saying andmore
importantwhat they appear to believe happened.
4 Do we conclude that the White House has been giving our generals
dictation; that they are mouthing what they have been told to say?
5 After [Vladimir] Putin persuaded [Bashar] Assad in 2013 to give up his
chemical weapons, the U.S. Army destroyed 600 metric tons of Syrias CW
[chemical weapons] stockpile in just six weeks. The mandate of the U.N.s
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW-UN) was to ensure
that all were destroyedlike the mandate for the U.N. inspectors for Iraq
regarding WMD [weapons of mass destruction]. The U.N. inspectors findings
on WMD were the truth. [Donald] Rumsfeld and his generals lied, and this
seems to be happening again. The stakes are even higher now; the importance
of a relationship of trust with Russias leaders cannot be overstated.
READ: Trumps Decision to Attack Syria Increases the Risk of World War III
(http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/russia-baiting_pushes_trump_syria_attac
k_risk_of_world_war_iii_20170410)
6 In September 2013, after Putin persuaded Assad to relinquish his
chemical weapons (giving [Barack] Obama a way out of a tough dilemma), the
Russian President wrote an op-ed
(http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russi
a-on-syria.html) for the New York Times in which he said: My working and
personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I
appreciate this.
Détente Nipped in the Bud
7 Three-plus years later, on April 4, 2017, Russian Prime Minister
[Dmitry] Medvedev spoke of absolute mistrust, which he characterized as
sad for our now completely ruined relations [but] good news for
terrorists. Not only sad, in our view, but totally unnecessaryworse still,
dangerous.
8 With Moscows cancellation of the agreement to de-conflict flight
activity over Syria, the clock has been turned back six months to the
situation last September/October when 11 months of tough negotiation brought
a ceasefire agreement. U.S. Air Force attacks on fixed Syrian army positions
on Sept. 17, 2016, killing about 70 and wounding another 100, scuttled the
fledgling ceasefire agreement approved by Obama and Putin a week before.
Trust evaporated.
9 On Sept. 26, 2016, Foreign Minister [Sergey] Lavrov lamented: My good
friend John Kerry
is under fierce criticism from the U.S. military
machine, [which] apparently does not really listen to the Commander in
Chief. Lavrov criticized JCS Chairman Joseph Dunford for telling Congress
that he opposed sharing intelligence with Russia on Syria, after the
[ceasefire] agreement, concluded on direct orders of Russian President
Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama, had stipulated that the two
sides would share intelligence.
It is difficult to work with such
partners.
10 On Oct. 1, 2016, Russias Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
warned, If the U.S. launches a direct aggression against Damascus and the
Syrian Army, it would cause a terrible, tectonic shift not only in the
country, but in the entire region.
11 On Oct 6, 2016, Russian defense spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov
cautioned that Russia was prepared to shoot down unidentified
aircraftincluding any stealth aircraftover Syria. Konashenkov made a point
of adding that Russian air defenses will not have time to identify the
origin of the aircraft.
WATCH: U.S. Made Syrians Airstrike Another Tonkin Gulf, Retired Col.
Lawrence Wilkerson Says
(http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/col_wilkerson_domestic_politics_drive_
trumps_attack_on_syria_20170410)
12 On Oct. 27, 2016, Putin publicly lamented, My personal agreements with
the President of the United States have not produced results, and
complained about people in Washington ready to do everything possible to
prevent these agreements from being implemented in practice. Referring to
Syria, Putin decried the lack of a common front against terrorism after
such lengthy negotiations, enormous effort, and difficult compromises.
13 Thus, the unnecessarily precarious state into which U.S.-Russian
relations have now sunk from growing trust to absolute mistrust. To be
sure, many welcome the high tension, whichadmittedlyis super for the arms
business.
READ: Donald Trumps Wag the Dog Moment
(http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/trumps_wag_the_dog_moment_20170409)
14 We believe it of transcendent importance to prevent relations with
Russia from falling into a state of complete disrepair. Secretary [Rex]
Tillersons visit to Moscow this week offers an opportunity to stanch the
damage, but there is also a danger that it could increase the
acrimonyparticularly if Secretary Tillerson is not familiar with the brief
history set down above.
15 Surely it is time to deal with Russia on the basis of facts, not
allegations based largely on dubious evidencefrom social media, for
example. While many would view this time of high tension as ruling out a
summit, we suggest the opposite may be true. You might consider instructing
Secretary Tillerson to begin arrangements for an early summit with President
Putin.
* Background on Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), a list
of whose issuances can be found at https://consortiumnews.com/vips-memos/
(https://consortiumnews.com/vips-memos/) .
A handful of CIA veterans established VIPS in January 2003 after concluding
that Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld had ordered our former colleagues to
manufacture intelligence to justify an unnecessary war with Iraq. At the
time we chose to assume that President George W. Bush was not fully aware of
this.
We issued our first Memorandum for the President on the afternoon of Feb. 5,
2003, after Colin Powells ill-begotten speech at the United Nations.
Addressing President Bush, we closed with these words:
No one has a corner on the truth; nor do we harbor illusions that our
analysis is irrefutable or undeniable [adjectives Powell applied to his
charges against Saddam Hussein]. But after watching Secretary Powell today,
we are convinced that you would be well served if you widened the discussion
beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see
no compelling reason and from which we believe the unintended consequences
are likely to be catastrophic.
Respectfully, we offer the same advice to you, President Trump.
* * *
For the Steering Group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
Eugene D. Betit, Intelligence Analyst, DIA, Soviet FAO, (US Army, ret.)
William Binney, Technical Director, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation
Research Center (ret.)
Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer and former Office Director in
the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research, (ret.)
Thomas Drake, Senior Executive Service, NSA (former)
Robert Furukawa, Capt, CEC, USN-R, (ret.)
Philip Giraldi, CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)
Mike Gravel, former Adjutant, top secret control officer, Communications
Intelligence Service; special agent of the Counter Intelligence Corps and
former United States Senator
Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer,
Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
Larry C. Johnson, CIA & State Department (ret.)
Michael S. Kearns, Captain, USAF (Ret.); ex-Master SERE Instructor for
Strategic Reconnaissance Operations (NSA/DIA) and Special Mission Units
(JSOC)
John Brady Kiesling, Foreign Service Officer (ret.)
John Kiriakou, former CIA analyst and counterterrorism officer, and former
senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Linda Lewis, WMD preparedness policy analyst, USDA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst
(ret.)
Elizabeth Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Near East, CIA
and National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Torin Nelson, former Intelligence Officer/Interrogator, Department of the
Army
Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, U.S. Army Judge Advocate (Ret.)
Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal
Counsel (ret.)
Scott Ritter, former MAJ., USMC, and former U.N. Weapon Inspector, Iraq
Peter Van Buren, U.S. Department of State, Foreign Service Officer (ret.)
(associate VIPS)
Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
Robert Wing, former Foreign Service Officer (associate VIPS)
Ann Wright, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel (ret) and former U.S. Diplomat
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