Is this the end of Arab Jerusalem? From Libya to Yemen, Regional Powers have
their own Reasons for Recognizing Israel
MIDDLE EAST MONITOR
08/18/2020
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By Muhammad Hussein |
While the US Deal of the Century ran out of traction earlier this year
before it even took off, Israels own version took effect last week when it
reached a historic peace deal with the United Arab Emirates. In return for
delaying its annexation plans in the West Bank, which was contested and
unlikely to take place anyway, it secured diplomatic relations with one of
the most influential Arab states.
Not since Egypts signing of its peace treaty with Israel in 1979 has the
region witnessed such a moment of disappointment at an Arab states
abandonment of the Palestinian cause, with the Palestinians, Turkey, and
Iran condemning the move. Barely hours went by following the deal before
social media abounded in Emirati figures, some of whom even called for the
monitoring and exile of any national who speaks against the deal.
In retrospect, the move is hardly surprising and was even expected by many
analysts of the region who did not fail to notice the secret meetings
between the two states over the years, which were revealed to go back
decades to the 1990s. Then, more recently, the countrys Etihad airlines
began making flights to Israel to deliver aid for the coronavirus, followed
by further revelations late last month that the Emirates were persuading its
regional allies to recognise Israel.
This move, therefore, is more the achievement of US President Donald Trumps
administration finally getting the Arab world and one of its most
influential states on board with making ties with Israel official, after
decades of attempts and backdoor talks.
Up until now, the Arab and particularly Gulf states have maintained a façade
of public enmity towards Israel, its occupation of Palestinian territory,
and its quest for dominance by making annual condemnations of its actions
and the spouting of the rhetoric of seeking to work for a Palestinian state.
That view may well still be held by the majority of those countrys people,
but the governments who rule over them have a more pragmatic view of the
situation.
It is a bitter truth that the Arab governments do indeed have much to
benefit from formalising ties with Israel, with the countrys innovative
tech and agricultural industries being just a few notable examples of its
potential exports to the Arab world. The UAE and its neighbours have already
had a glimpse into that through their purchase and use of Israeli spyware
over the years.
With official ties being formed and with no diplomatic obstacle, the
cooperation between Israeli and Emirati business would certainly benefit the
Emirati economy in a myriad of ways, despite not having a significant impact
due to the already existing ties between them. In return, Israel would gain
greater access to the region and the Arab states in the form of investment,
trade, aviation routes, bilateral relations, and even tourism.
The only condition for all of that predicated on the utopian idea that
Israel is a force for good rather than an occupying entity is to simply
abandon the Palestinian cause and accept the inevitable sovereignty of the
Israeli state over the entirety of Palestine.
It is not only old neighbours who are considering opening relations with
Israel, though, but also new regional actors and Emirati-backed proxies such
as Yemens Southern Transitional Council (STC), the Libyan National Army
(LNA) under Khalifa Haftar, and the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG).
With both the STC and Haftar having expressed interest in building ties with
Israel over the past few months and the YPG having sought its support last
year against Turkey, it would not be far-fetched to consider Tel Aviv as a
potential new backer of such elements in the region. Aside from the economic
benefit of opening up to Israel, there may be a military benefit the likes
of which can be seen in Israels arming of the Indian military in Kashmir.
It would also come as no surprise if Israel joined the UAE and the Gulf
states in their opposition to all foreign policy initiatives undertaken by
Turkey, as it has already begun to do with its stake in the EastMed pipeline
deal of which Turkey is already fiercely countering. This would be
particularly likely seeing as Ankara has threatened to suspend ties with Abu
Dhabi following the peace deal.
In contrast, Bahrain has been touted to also formalise ties with Israel in
the coming days and Oman seems closer to doing so after backing the UAEs
move. As for Saudi Arabia, there has so far been silence, but many speculate
that the Emirati deal has put pressure on it to follow suit with publicising
its secret ties with Israel.
Despite the Gulf states turning their back on the Palestinian cause and
allowing it to be stripped down to future economic deals rather than
sovereign statehood, that cannot be accurately blamed on a sincere alliance
or affinity to Zionism as an ideology but is almost certainly based on a
pragmatic approach, economic potential, and a disillusionment of the decades
of public boycotts and secret relations. That is not to mention, critically,
the common threat that the Gulf states and Israel have long seen in Iran.
The Arab world seems to be tiring of its two-faced relationship with Israel,
and Arab governments seem to have given up any efforts to formulate a peace
plan based on their own terms, making the biggest victors in this historic
deal Israel and the Trump administration.
The long-held dream of a Palestine liberated from Israeli occupation by the
hands of the Arab world is rapidly fading.
Muhammad Hussein is an International Politics graduate and political analyst
on Middle Eastern affairs, primarily focusing on the regions of the Gulf,
Iran, Syria and Turkey, as well as their relation to Western foreign policy.