Sudan's Progressive, Secular Revolutionary Government faces Food Riots and
Ethnic Violence
THE CONVERSATION
03/15/2021
By Andrew E. Yaw Tchie | -
Sudan's political transition is in a precarious phase. Prime Minister
Abdalla Hamdok's government is facing a wide variety of challenges,
including protests over the price of goods and commodities, and a resurgence
of violence in the country's Darfur region. If the situation continues to
unravel, the country could fall into crisis leaving parts of the old regime
to retake control. Andrew E. Yaw Tchie assesses the transition's status and
explains what the new government must do to place the country back on track.
How do you rate the transitional government's performance against its
mandate and promises made?
There have been many twists along the way, including an attempted mutiny and
the attempted assassination of Prime Minister Abdulla Hamdok.
And the transitional government is yet to fulfil significant provisions of
the 2019 agreement that was signed between the Transitional Military Council
and the Forces of Freedom and Change alliance.
The agreement formed the basis of an experimental transition process also
witnessed in South Sudan and Mali. It was intended to return Sudan to a
democratic state after the ouster of former president Omar al-Bashir. The
expectation was that Sudan would create a new executive, legislature,
judiciary, and other state institutions. But, much still remains to be done.
For example, the Sudanese government has criminalised female genital
mutilation. However, it has not ensured that the practice has stopped on the
ground.
Additionally, al-Bashir was ousted from power and then imprisoned. But,
proceedings for his local trial have been repeatedly delayed. Moreover,
significant crimes like extrajudicial killings and assaults committed by his
security forces are not included on the list of charges against him.
Of much concern is the fact that inflation in Sudan has risen to above 200%
as the transitional government strives to salvage the ravaged economy. Also,
the government has failed to get a grip on the violence between communities
in Darfur. This comes at a time when the African Union-United Nations Hybrid
Operation in Darfur is drawing down it's peacekeeping mission in the region.
In addition, tensions over the Ethiopia-Sudan border have re-emerged. Both
countries lay claim to a disputed area known as al-Fashaga, where the
north-west of Ethiopia's Amhara region meets Sudan's Gedaref state. And
there is also the fall out over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
This comes against the backdrop of Hamdok's appointment as chairperson of
the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, where his leadership is yet
to be felt.
The country is also trying to recover from the health and economic effects
of the COVID-19 pandemic and a recurring locust problem.
What are the government's main achievements so far?
The government has made some progress. It has passed a law in an attempt to
dismantle the framework of the former regime, ordered the arrest of former
foreign minister Ali Karti for his role in the 1989 coup which brought
al-Bashir to power, and indicted al-Bashir for the crimes he committed in
office.
Prime Minister Hamdok has also successfully negotiated Sudan's removal from
the US state sponsored terror list. And his government did well to bring
many of Sudan's armed groups to the table within the Juba peace agreement,
signed in October 2020. Hamdok has also named a new cabinet in keeping with
the agreement.
Critically, Sudan ratified the International Convention for the Protection
of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance of 2006 and the Convention
against Torture and Cruel Punishment of 1984. This is a good step towards
entrenching human rights in the country.
What are the main challenges the government now faces with recent food
riots?
Critically, the government must act urgently to reform the economy. Prices
of goods and services are high. And protests over fuel, bread and other
essential goods have continued since al-Bashir's ousting.
The recent steps by the government to set the value of the Sudanese pound
based on supply and demand relative to other currencies is welcome. This
will help to re-balance the pound in the long-term and to secure
international loans and grants. But reforming the economy will not be enough
unless Khartoum fundamentally reforms its state institutions and security
sectors.
The vision for a better Sudan must be delivered through a national project
that establishes new avenues of political control, and reverses and
restructures how state power has been used and exploited by former regime
members and elites since independence in 1956.
The transitional government also needs to address the links between the
security sector and private business interests. It must also manage the
risks associated with the October 2020 Juba Peace agreement, which
integrates rebels into the military.
An expanded security sector could cost Sudan's fragile economy billions.
This will sideline the governments reform agenda, but also restricts it
ability to create institutional civilian oversight and parliamentary control
over the defence and security forces.
What next for the political transition?
Throughout Sudan's modern history, wealth has served the interests of a
small group of well-connected people who have gone to great lengths to
extract economic benefits from the country's vast resources at the expense
of everyday Sudanese. Hamdok must tackle the historical misappropriation of
wealth head-on.
The resurgence of violence in Darfur shows a failure by the Darfur state and
the central government to protect civilians. It indicates
that Hamdok's government must institute measures to diffuse violence, while
considering contributing factors like the impact of climate change on
farming, flooding, land issues and access to resources.
Ultimately, for peace to be achieved, the new Sudan must embrace civilian
leadership and dismantle the old military system.
Hamdok and his government need to implement a stabilisation framework that
includes all armed groups, is agile in its response to violence, and
supports institutional reform and national security.
Sudan needs real transitional justice. The government's symbolic political
gestures will not pacify the people for long.
Finally, discussions on elections must begin before the transitional
government's term ends in 2022. Sudan needs an institutional framework to
support free and fair elections urgently.