The Politics of War: What is Israel’s Endgame in Lebanon and Syria?
Israel’s strategic interests in the Syria conflict go beyond Netanyahu’s need
for a cheap victory. The outcome of the Syria war has the potential of yielding
a nightmare scenario for Israel.
by Ramzy Baroud
August 12th, 2020
By Ramzy Baroud
On August 4, hours before a massive explosion rocked the Lebanese capital,
Beirut, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, issued an ominous warning
to Lebanon.
“We hit a cell and now we hit the dispatchers. I suggest to all of them,
including Hezbollah, to consider this,” Netanyahu said during an official tour
of a military facility in central Israel.
Netanyahu’s warning did not bode well for Israel when, hours later, a
Hiroshima-like blast devastated entire sectors of Beirut. Those who suspected
Israeli involvement in the deadly explosion had one more reason to point
fingers at Tel Aviv.
In politics and in war, truth is the first casualty. We may never know
precisely what transpired in the moments preceding the Beirut blast. Somehow,
it may not matter at all, because the narrative regarding Lebanon’s many
tragedies is as splintered as the country’s political landscape.
Judging by statements and positions adopted by the country’s various parties
and factions, many seem to be more concerned with exploiting the tragedy for
trivial political gain than in the tragedy itself. Even if the explosion was
the unfortunate outcome of an accident resulting from bureaucratic negligence,
sadly, it is still inconsequential. In Lebanon, as in much of the Middle East,
everything is political.
What is almost certain about the future, however, is that the political
discourse will eventually lead back to Israel versus Hezbollah. The former is
keen at undermining the group’s influence in Lebanon, while the latter is
insistent on thwarting Israel’s plans.
US, Israeli Media Scramble to Blame Hezbollah for Deadly Beirut Explosion
Pundits in the US and Israel are sounding the trumpets of war and trying to
blame Hezbollah for the massive explosion in the port of Beirut.
MintPress News | Raul Diego | Aug 11
But what is Israel’s plan anyway? After decades of trying to destroy the
Lebanese group, the Israeli government is keenly aware that eradicating
Hezbollah militarily is no longer feasible, certainly not in the foreseeable
future. The Lebanese group has proven its prowess on the battlefield when it
played a major role in ending the Israeli occupation of Lebanon in May 2000.
Subsequent Israeli attempts at reasserting its dominance on Lebanon’s southern
border have, thus far, proven futile. The failed war of 2006 and the more
recent conflagration of September 2019 are also two cases in point.
Hezbollah is uninterested in inviting another Israeli war on Lebanon, either.
The country is on the verge of economic collapse, if it has not already
collapsed.
While Lebanon has always been in the throes of political division and
factionalism, the divisiveness of the current political mood in the country is
more destructive than it has ever been. Losing hope in all political actors,
the Lebanese people have taken to the street demanding basic rights and
services, an end to the endemic corruption and a whole new social and political
contract – unsuccessfully.
While stalemates in politics are somewhat ordinary occurrences, political
deadlocks can be calamitous in a country on the brink of starvation. The
Hiroshima-like cloud of explosives that shocked the world was a perfect
metaphor for Lebanon’s seemingly endless woes.
Former Israeli Knesset member, Moshe Feiglin, was among many jubilant Israelis
who celebrated the near-demise of the Arab city. Feiglin described the
horrendous explosion as a ‘day of joy’, giving a ‘huge thank you to God. “If it
was us,” meaning Israel being involved in the deadly explosion, “then we should
be proud of it, and with that we will create a balance of terror.”
Regardless of whether Feiglin is speaking from a position of knowledge or not,
his reference to ‘balance of terror’ remains the basic premise in all of
Israel’s dealings with Lebanon, and Hezbollah, in particular.
The convoluted war in Syria has expanded Israel’s war of attrition, but has
also given Israel the opportunity to target Hezbollah’s interests without
registering yet another aggression on Lebanese territories. It is much easier
to target war-torn Syria and escape unscathed rather than to target Lebanon and
pay a price.
For years, Israel has bombed many targets in Syria. Initially, it was
unforthcoming about its role. Only in the last year or so, it has begun to
openly brag about its military conquests, but for a reason. The embattled
Netanyahu is desperate to gain political credits, as he is dogged by multiple
corruption charges, which have tarnished his image. By bombing Iranian and
Hezbollah targets in Syria, the Israeli leader hopes to garner the approval of
the military elite, a critical constituency in Israeli politics.
Shadowy US Firm Run by Former Diplomat Cinches Syria Oil Deal with Kurds
Delta Crescent Energy, run by the CEO of a private mercenary firm, has inked a
deal with Kurdish rebels to "steal" oil in Syria.
MintPress News | Raul Diego | Aug 5
Netanyahu’s comments before the Beirut explosion were in reference to a series
of incidents that began on July 21, when Israel bombed an area adjacent to the
Damascus International Airport, killing, among others, a senior Hezbollah
member, Ali Kamel Mohsen.
This incident placed Israel’s northern borders on alert. The state of emergency
was coupled with massive political and media hype, which helped Netanyahu by
distracting ordinary Israelis from his ongoing corruption trial.
But Israel’s strategic interests in the Syria conflict go beyond Netanyahu’s
need for a cheap victory. The outcome of the Syria war has the potential of
yielding a nightmare scenario for Israel.
For decades, Israel has argued that an ‘axis of terror’ – Iran, Syria and
Hezbollah – had to be dismantled, for it represented Israel’s greatest security
threat. That was long before pro-Iran forces and militias began operating
overtly in Syria, as a result of the ongoing war.
While Israel argues that its recurring bombardment of Syria is aimed largely at
Hezbollah targets – the group’s military cache and Iranian missiles on their
way to Lebanon via Syrian territories – Israel’s war in Syria is largely
political. As per Israeli logic, the more bombs Israel drops over Syria, the
more relevant a player it will become when the conflicting parties engage in
future negotiations to sort out the fate of that country.
However, by doing so, Israel also risks igniting a costly military conflict
with Lebanon, one that neither Tel Aviv nor Hezbollah can afford at the moment.
Israeli policymakers and military planners must be busy trying to analyze the
situation in Lebanon, to understand the best way to exploit Lebanon’s tragedy
in order to advance Israel’s strategic interests.
The future of Lebanon is, once more, in the hands of war generals.
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OPINION & ANALYSIS
The Politics of War: What is Israel’s Endgame in Lebanon and Syria?
Israel’s strategic interests in the Syria conflict go beyond Netanyahu’s need
for a cheap victory. The outcome of the Syria war has the potential of yielding
a nightmare scenario for Israel.
by Ramzy Baroud
August 12th, 2020
By Ramzy Baroud
0 Comments
On August 4, hours before a massive explosion rocked the Lebanese capital,
Beirut, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, issued an ominous warning
to Lebanon.
“We hit a cell and now we hit the dispatchers. I suggest to all of them,
including Hezbollah, to consider this,” Netanyahu said during an official tour
of a military facility in central Israel.
Netanyahu’s warning did not bode well for Israel when, hours later, a
Hiroshima-like blast devastated entire sectors of Beirut. Those who suspected
Israeli involvement in the deadly explosion had one more reason to point
fingers at Tel Aviv.
In politics and in war, truth is the first casualty. We may never know
precisely what transpired in the moments preceding the Beirut blast. Somehow,
it may not matter at all, because the narrative regarding Lebanon’s many
tragedies is as splintered as the country’s political landscape.
Judging by statements and positions adopted by the country’s various parties
and factions, many seem to be more concerned with exploiting the tragedy for
trivial political gain than in the tragedy itself. Even if the explosion was
the unfortunate outcome of an accident resulting from bureaucratic negligence,
sadly, it is still inconsequential. In Lebanon, as in much of the Middle East,
everything is political.
What is almost certain about the future, however, is that the political
discourse will eventually lead back to Israel versus Hezbollah. The former is
keen at undermining the group’s influence in Lebanon, while the latter is
insistent on thwarting Israel’s plans.
US, Israeli Media Scramble to Blame Hezbollah for Deadly Beirut Explosion
Pundits in the US and Israel are sounding the trumpets of war and trying to
blame Hezbollah for the massive explosion in the port of Beirut.
MintPress News | Raul Diego | Aug 11
But what is Israel’s plan anyway? After decades of trying to destroy the
Lebanese group, the Israeli government is keenly aware that eradicating
Hezbollah militarily is no longer feasible, certainly not in the foreseeable
future. The Lebanese group has proven its prowess on the battlefield when it
played a major role in ending the Israeli occupation of Lebanon in May 2000.
Subsequent Israeli attempts at reasserting its dominance on Lebanon’s southern
border have, thus far, proven futile. The failed war of 2006 and the more
recent conflagration of September 2019 are also two cases in point.
Hezbollah is uninterested in inviting another Israeli war on Lebanon, either.
The country is on the verge of economic collapse, if it has not already
collapsed.
While Lebanon has always been in the throes of political division and
factionalism, the divisiveness of the current political mood in the country is
more destructive than it has ever been. Losing hope in all political actors,
the Lebanese people have taken to the street demanding basic rights and
services, an end to the endemic corruption and a whole new social and political
contract – unsuccessfully.
While stalemates in politics are somewhat ordinary occurrences, political
deadlocks can be calamitous in a country on the brink of starvation. The
Hiroshima-like cloud of explosives that shocked the world was a perfect
metaphor for Lebanon’s seemingly endless woes.
Former Israeli Knesset member, Moshe Feiglin, was among many jubilant Israelis
who celebrated the near-demise of the Arab city. Feiglin described the
horrendous explosion as a ‘day of joy’, giving a ‘huge thank you to God. “If it
was us,” meaning Israel being involved in the deadly explosion, “then we should
be proud of it, and with that we will create a balance of terror.”
Regardless of whether Feiglin is speaking from a position of knowledge or not,
his reference to ‘balance of terror’ remains the basic premise in all of
Israel’s dealings with Lebanon, and Hezbollah, in particular.
The convoluted war in Syria has expanded Israel’s war of attrition, but has
also given Israel the opportunity to target Hezbollah’s interests without
registering yet another aggression on Lebanese territories. It is much easier
to target war-torn Syria and escape unscathed rather than to target Lebanon and
pay a price.
For years, Israel has bombed many targets in Syria. Initially, it was
unforthcoming about its role. Only in the last year or so, it has begun to
openly brag about its military conquests, but for a reason. The embattled
Netanyahu is desperate to gain political credits, as he is dogged by multiple
corruption charges, which have tarnished his image. By bombing Iranian and
Hezbollah targets in Syria, the Israeli leader hopes to garner the approval of
the military elite, a critical constituency in Israeli politics.
Shadowy US Firm Run by Former Diplomat Cinches Syria Oil Deal with Kurds
Delta Crescent Energy, run by the CEO of a private mercenary firm, has inked a
deal with Kurdish rebels to "steal" oil in Syria.
MintPress News | Raul Diego | Aug 5
Netanyahu’s comments before the Beirut explosion were in reference to a series
of incidents that began on July 21, when Israel bombed an area adjacent to the
Damascus International Airport, killing, among others, a senior Hezbollah
member, Ali Kamel Mohsen.
This incident placed Israel’s northern borders on alert. The state of emergency
was coupled with massive political and media hype, which helped Netanyahu by
distracting ordinary Israelis from his ongoing corruption trial.
But Israel’s strategic interests in the Syria conflict go beyond Netanyahu’s
need for a cheap victory. The outcome of the Syria war has the potential of
yielding a nightmare scenario for Israel.
For decades, Israel has argued that an ‘axis of terror’ – Iran, Syria and
Hezbollah – had to be dismantled, for it represented Israel’s greatest security
threat. That was long before pro-Iran forces and militias began operating
overtly in Syria, as a result of the ongoing war.
While Israel argues that its recurring bombardment of Syria is aimed largely at
Hezbollah targets – the group’s military cache and Iranian missiles on their
way to Lebanon via Syrian territories – Israel’s war in Syria is largely
political. As per Israeli logic, the more bombs Israel drops over Syria, the
more relevant a player it will become when the conflicting parties engage in
future negotiations to sort out the fate of that country.
However, by doing so, Israel also risks igniting a costly military conflict
with Lebanon, one that neither Tel Aviv nor Hezbollah can afford at the moment.
Israeli policymakers and military planners must be busy trying to analyze the
situation in Lebanon, to understand the best way to exploit Lebanon’s tragedy
in order to advance Israel’s strategic interests.
The future of Lebanon is, once more, in the hands of war generals.