https://socialistaction.org/2017/12/07/venezuela-crisis-intensifies-with-default/
Venezuela crisis intensifies with default
/ 15 hours ago
DEC. 2017 BOLIVARSBy WAYNE DELUCA
Credit agency Standard & Poor has ruled Venezuela in default after the
country missed $237 million in scheduled bond payments. This comes
amidst an economic crisis with official inflation around 4000% and price
increases well over 1000%. President Nicolás Maduro’s attempt to
restructure is hindered by sanctions that stop U.S. banks from buying
any of the resulting debt.
Maduro has undertaken a dramatic restructuring at state-owned oil firm
PDVSA. General Manuel Quevado now heads the firm, and more than 100
officials have been arrested on charges of corruption. Six executives at
PDVSA’s U.S.-based refinery corporation CITGO have been detained, among
them several U.S. citizens.
Maduro called for a “new oil revolution” as PDVSA’s output has declined
from 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.9 million bpd in the last
year. Oil industry watchers have expressed fears that military control
will lead to further drops in production. Oil is Venezuela’s main export
and source of hard currency for imports and debt payments.
There are constant shortages of basic goods. This has hit medicine
particularly hard, as even antibiotics like penicillin are scarce. Birth
control had previously been available for free as part of Venezuela’s
social programs; now it is only found on the black market at outrageous
markups.
Maduro and his supporters blame their woes on economic warfare against
Venezuela. While there is a measure of hoarding, most of the shortages
come from the combination of price controls and currency controls.
Imports have stopped because the combination would require goods to be
sold for less than they originally cost. Corn production has dropped 50%
since 2008, with farmers unable to obtain seed or sell their product at
a profit.
Criminality is endemic in today’s Venezuela. The country’s murder rate
is 91.8 homicides per 100,000 population—compared to five in the United
States. The situation is so desperate that the armed forces can no
longer drive at night because soldiers are frequently attacked for their
weapons and money.
Maduro’s popularity is extremely low, around 23% in recent polls, but
over 61% of Venezuelans oppose sanctions. Luckily for the ruling PSUV
(United Socialist Party), the political opposition has fractured. The
MUD (Democratic Unity Roundtable) coalition was split over participation
in October’s regional elections, and PSUV won an unexpected 54% of votes.
Former governor Antonio Ledezma escaped house arrest and went to Spain
by way of Colombia. Freddy Guevara of the Popular Will party asked the
Chilean embassy for asylum. Democratic Action (AD), the largest party in
MUD, acted independently of its partners and accepted several posts from
the controversial National Constituent Assembly (ANC). Dialogue between
the government and opposition is expected to continue later in December.
Maduro has been relying more heavily on the armed forces to maintain
control. Handing PDVSA over to the military is the “jewel in the crown”
of the alliance between the president and his generals. A new law
prohibits social media postings that “promote fascism, intolerance or
hate.” In recent days, Human Rights Watch has reported systemic torture
of anti-government protesters. Maduro’s increasing authoritarianism
follows the trend of populism in decline and raises frightening
prospects for Venezuela’s future.
The Venezuelan revolution had high hopes under Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s
predecessor, but it never went beyond using oil profits for social
benefits. The economy remained capitalist, and Chávez leaned on the
“Boliburguesía,” millionaires around the oil industry who were
sympathetic to his project. He also continued to faithfully make
payments on Venezuela’s foreign debt, a policy Maduro followed even as
it depleted the country’s cash reserves.
Chávez tried to have a revolution without following the example of the
Russian and Cuban revolutions, nationalizing industry and land. This
left capital in power over the Venezuelan economy. Oil profits were
spent or sent abroad rather than invested in durable state industry and
agriculture. This worked with high oil prices but led to economic crisis
once they dropped. Organs of local democracy grew in good times, but the
crisis has led to a dangerous turn to the military and repression.
A mass revolutionary socialist party committed to completing the
Venezuelan revolution is the first step out of the crisis. It must
organize the struggle against the economic crisis and replace the
capitalist government with a workers state. Such a revolution could not
be confined to Venezuela but would spread throughout Latin America and
the world.
If Maduro’s regime falls to the pro-capitalist opposition, it will be a
disaster for the Venezuelan people. PDVSA would be privatized and
revenge exacted on workers and the poor. But there is danger that if
workers do not take control of the country, Maduro’s regime, supported
only by the military, will move further down the road of repression and
authoritarianism.
Photo: Carlos García Rawlins / Reuters
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December 7, 2017 in Caribbean, Latin America. Tags: Venezuela
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