Cockburn writes: "President Vladimir Putin sought to portray the airstrikes
as a pre-emptive attack against the Islamic militants who have taken over
large parts of Syria and Iraq. Here's what we know about why Russia would
want to target Isis groups."
Russian president Vladimir Putin. (photo: Reuters)
Why Russia Has Started Bombing Syria Now - And What It Hopes to Achieve
By Patrick Cockburn, The Independent
02 October 15
Airstrikes were launched early on Wednesday morning, just hours after the
decision had been approved by the Russian Parliament
Russian military jets have carried out air strikes in Syria for the first
time, targeting what Moscow said were Isis positions.
The strikes were launched hours after the Russian parliament gave their seal
of approval on Wednesday morning.
However, a US official has cast doubt on the claim that the Kremlin is
tragetting Isis, saying the Russians appeared to be attacking opposition
groups fighting Syrian government forces.
And on the ground, video footage has emerged of Russian planes flying over
anti-Assad rebel groups in Hama.
President Vladimir Putin sought to portray the airstrikes as a pre-emptive
attack against the Islamic militants who have taken over large parts of
Syria and Iraq.
Here's what we know about why Russia would want to target Isis groups:
1. Why has Russia moved now?
Isis holds more than 50 per cent of Syria according to the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights and has been advancing towards a strategically
important road linking Damascus to the north. Its forces are now only 22
miles from this highway and President Assad's army is on the retreat after
four years of war and heavy casualties.
Russia's key aim, therefore, is to prevent collapse - unlikely - or the
significant weakening of the Assad regime. The US is not bombing Isis in
Syria in areas the jihadist group is fighting the Syrian army.
Russia has also decided to move now following the failure of Mr Putin to
reach any agreement with the US at the UN General Assembly meeting in New
York where the threat of Isis has been high on the agenda.
2. What is Russia's plan - to defeat Isis or save Assad?
Their priority is to defeat Isis and then save the Assad regime in Damascus.
Despite all the controversy over whether Assad should stay or go, the war
would carry on in either case. This is very much a civil war with committed
supporters on either side. In the short term Russia wants to stop Isis, and
if possible defeat it - though this not likely to happen.
3. Is this a proxy war between Russia and the US?
No - they are both on same side against Isis and al-Qaeda clones. They are
wholly divided, however, on how power should be shared in a post-Isis Syria,
so there is a rivalry there.
4. How might Obama respond?
It is difficult for Obama to have any influence since he has a complete
vacuum of policy in Syria. In theory he wishes to contain and defeat the
so-called "Islamic State" (Isis) but has failed to do either. The Russians
have now filled that vacuum but with uncertain long-term results.
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Russian president Vladimir Putin. (photo: Reuters)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/russia-air-strikes-in-syria-why-puti
n-has-started-bombing-isis-now-and-what-it-hopes-to-achieve-a6674041.htmlhtt
p://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/russia-air-strikes-in-syria-why-putin-h
as-started-bombing-isis-now-and-what-it-hopes-to-achieve-a6674041.html
Why Russia Has Started Bombing Syria Now - And What It Hopes to Achieve
By Patrick Cockburn, The Independent
02 October 15
Airstrikes were launched early on Wednesday morning, just hours after the
decision had been approved by the Russian Parliament
ussian military jets have carried out air strikes in Syria for the first
time, targeting what Moscow said were Isis positions.
The strikes were launched hours after the Russian parliament gave their seal
of approval on Wednesday morning.
However, a US official has cast doubt on the claim that the Kremlin is
tragetting Isis, saying the Russians appeared to be attacking opposition
groups fighting Syrian government forces.
And on the ground, video footage has emerged of Russian planes flying over
anti-Assad rebel groups in Hama.
President Vladimir Putin sought to portray the airstrikes as a pre-emptive
attack against the Islamic militants who have taken over large parts of
Syria and Iraq.
Here's what we know about why Russia would want to target Isis groups:
1. Why has Russia moved now?
Isis holds more than 50 per cent of Syria according to the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights and has been advancing towards a strategically
important road linking Damascus to the north. Its forces are now only 22
miles from this highway and President Assad's army is on the retreat after
four years of war and heavy casualties.
Russia's key aim, therefore, is to prevent collapse - unlikely - or the
significant weakening of the Assad regime. The US is not bombing Isis in
Syria in areas the jihadist group is fighting the Syrian army.
Russia has also decided to move now following the failure of Mr Putin to
reach any agreement with the US at the UN General Assembly meeting in New
York where the threat of Isis has been high on the agenda.
2. What is Russia's plan - to defeat Isis or save Assad?
Their priority is to defeat Isis and then save the Assad regime in Damascus.
Despite all the controversy over whether Assad should stay or go, the war
would carry on in either case. This is very much a civil war with committed
supporters on either side. In the short term Russia wants to stop Isis, and
if possible defeat it - though this not likely to happen.
3. Is this a proxy war between Russia and the US?
No - they are both on same side against Isis and al-Qaeda clones. They are
wholly divided, however, on how power should be shared in a post-Isis Syria,
so there is a rivalry there.
4. How might Obama respond?
It is difficult for Obama to have any influence since he has a complete
vacuum of policy in Syria. In theory he wishes to contain and defeat the
so-called "Islamic State" (Isis) but has failed to do either. The Russians
have now filled that vacuum but with uncertain long-term results.
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