On Sep 18, 2014, at 9:45 PM, "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote: > > Craig Birkmaier wrote: > >> Look at how long broadcasters have held on in the face of a massive >> decline in their audience Bert. > > That's potentially a point. But I can't tell if you're talking about > broadcasters or about the congloms. Broadcasters are an MVPD competitor that get their content from the content conglomerates. The audience that watches the broadcast networks has declined steadily since cable systems started offering competition in the '80s. But they still serve a purpose. Especially now that the stations and networks are generating billions in retrans consent fees. The content conglomerates diversified in the '90s, creating second tier cable networks, news channels, and buying up any cable network willing to sell. They still own the vast majority of the programming we watch - the audience is just spread out among MANY options (streaming channels and new VOD services). > > The congloms are creating most of the TV content that people care about, > whether or not it is transmitted OTA. So no problem there. > > The OTA broadcasters, whose basic distribution function has been taken over > largely by MVPDs, have gone to big station groups (cutting overhead costs), > and have gotten that strange deal from the FCC, retrains consent. That's what > has kept them going. In principle, I think that *if* the OTA broadcasters got > MVPD carriage *and* all of the ad revenue from their ads, they could still > have survived. Even without retrains consent. You just made my point. The second revenue stream from "the bundle" has propped up OTA broadcasters. In fact it is almost comical that we still call them OTA broadcasters, as such a small portion of the audience uses an antenna. Broadcasters have a strong incentive to promote subscribing to the bundle. > > So until now, those two effects have kept them afloat. In the Internet era, I > think they will need to show how they add value to Internet distribution, > because I think the retrains consent formula, which only works with MVPD > bundles, ain't going to last forever. Time will tell. I think many broadcasters will survive the next consolidation, while the ones on the margins will take the spectrum auction money and run. Local news is still their most important franchise, and it is likely that at least one TV news organization will survive in every market, just a one newspaper had survived in each market. If Newspaper/TV cross ownership is allowed ( and I think this may be inevitable) we may see only one "news organization" in many markets. The largest problem local broadcasters face is finding or creating original content people will actually watch. They know little about the production of dramas and sitcoms. Live local sports may be an option, like high school football. Regards Craig ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.