[opendtv] Analysis: DTV Shipments to Quadruple by 2008
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 6 Dec 2004 08:21:05 -0500
DTV Shipments to Quadruple by 2008
December 6, 2004 12:00am
Source: Reed Business Information. All Rights Reserved.
Electronic News: Looming government deadlines and=20
the rise of new display technologies are driving=20
the market for digital television (DTV) sets into=20
high gear, to be evidenced by a period of rapid=20
growth when shipments are expected to grow by=20
more than fourfold from 2004 to 2008, according=20
to iSuppli Corp.
DTV shipments are predicted to rise at a CAGR of=20
44.5 percent to 86.6 million units in 2008 from=20
19.9 million units in 2004, the El Segundo,=20
Calif.-based market research firm said. This year=20
is expected to be particularly good for DTV, with=20
unit shipments growing by 114 percent from 9.3=20
million units in 2003.
Worldwide DTV shipment revenue will double by=20
2008, to $62.8 billion in 2008, up from $31.4=20
billion this year, the firm said.
Integrated vs. Digital-Ready
Included in the DTV category are integrated DTV=20
sets and digital-ready TV sets. Integrated DTV=20
sets have digital set-top box functionality with=20
decoding built into the TV set; they may or may=20
not have high-definition functionality; and they=20
do have the capability to receive direct input=20
from cable and terrestrial broadcasts.
Digital-ready TV sets cannot accept direct=20
signals from satellite, cable or terrestrial; may=20
contain a tuner for receiving analog broadcasts;=20
contain ICs to up-convert to progressive scan or=20
digital resolution of at least 480 progressive=20
and may be capable of up-converting to full=20
high-definition resolution of 720 progressive or=20
1080 interlaced.
DTV-ready sets currently comprise the majority of=20
shipments, with 60 percent of DTV sets made this=20
year to be of this type.
With integrated sets gaining momentum and=20
shipments rising at a CAGR 66 percent from 2004=20
and 2008, compared to 15 percent for the=20
DTV-ready products, iSuppli predicts that by 2008=20
integrated sets will account for 75 percent of=20
all DTV shipments.
Deadlines Approaching, Global Acceptance Coming
After many years of slow growth due to the set=20
makers and broadcasters unwillingness to take the=20
first steps, with government mandates and rulings=20
in place, all parties are making moves toward=20
meeting the deadlines to make the DTV market a=20
reality.
In the U.S., for instance, all TV stations must=20
transmit digitally by 2007, according to the=20
government mandate with worldwide deadlines for=20
the commencement of DTV transmission falling=20
between 2007 and 2015.
DTV transition also is being fueled by acceptance=20
and availability of newer television display=20
technologies like LCD, plasma, liquid crystal on=20
silicon (LCOS) and Texas Instruments' digital=20
light processing (DLP). With intrinsic support=20
for display of resolutions of 480p and higher,=20
these display technologies are inherently suited=20
for DTV applications.
LCDs are expected to account for 43 percent of=20
all DTV-set shipments this year, to hold steady=20
over the next four years. CRT (cathode ray tube)=20
TV-display and plasma DTV sets will gain share=20
between 2004 and 2008, while rear-projection=20
televisions will see their portion of the market=20
decline, iSuppli believes.
CRT DTVs are expected to gain acceptance in most=20
parts of the world, especially North America and=20
China, where consumers are extremely price=20
conscious and because CRT TVs allow consumers to=20
obtain DTVs at affordable prices, as the ASPs of=20
similar-sized CRT and LCD TVs still are higher by=20
a factor of two, iSuppli noted.
CRT TVs are seen as the emerging dominant=20
technology in China in 2008. In Europe and Japan,=20
where consumers are more concerned about=20
aesthetics and room size than they are about=20
price, CRT TVs will account for a much smaller=20
portion of the DTV market.
On a regional basis, North America is to lead the=20
worldwide adoption of DTVs, followed by Europe=20
and Japan, the firm reported. The rest of the=20
world will experience the slowest growth because=20
most of its countries have few regulations in=20
place and most of those countries are in the=20
emerging or third-world market category, where=20
consumers lack sufficient disposable income to=20
purchase a high-priced consumer item, the firm=20
added.
Regional differences in adoption of DTV also are=20
due to variances in government mandates for=20
conversion from analog broadcast to digital=20
broadcasting. North America will account for an=20
estimated 43 percent of all DTV shipments this=20
year. As the market grows and other regions adopt=20
DTVs, the shares will start to stabilize, with=20
North America leading the market, followed by=20
Europe, Japan and China.
=46inally, the market for DTV semiconductors will=20
reach $1.3 billion this year, growing nearly=20
fourfold to $4.9 billion by 2008, with the=20
largest DTV chip segment being decoders and=20
demodulators for the front-end, followed by video=20
system ICs such as image processors, controllers=20
and SOCs.
<<Electronic News -- 11/22/04>>
<< Copyright =A92004 Reed Business Information. All Rights Reserved. >>
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