[opendtv] Another Canard: Competing with "Cable"
- From: "John Willkie" <jmwillkie@xxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 21:50:38 -0700
Periodically, I see quite evident legacy thinking on this list. In
specific, I hear about "if broadcasters can band together and provide 30
cable-equivalent channels" they can compete with cable.
What? You mean that broadcasters can in the future provide services that
will compete with cable circa 1987?
Cable is not just TV, and cable isn't profitable with what they offer today.
Oftimes, they don't have positive cash-flow. To try to really make money,
cable has invested in digital two-way infrastructures, and are "desperately"
finding ways to compete with everybody BUT broadcasters.
The latest wrinkle is VOIP telephony. Previously, it was circuit-switched
telephony (like that used by Cox Cable in San Diego). HDTV. DTV. And,
high-speed internet. And, business telephone services, and commercial
communications services.
Broadcasters -- content providers, mainly, but not all stations actually
generate content on their own -- can't compete with a distribution system.
It's like asking "Shrek 2" to compete with a pipeline company.
The reality of cable is that their overall subscriber numbers are declining,
because their legacy business is being done better by satellite operators.
What cable is doing is offering a variety of services to existing customers,
and marketing those services to (largely) existing customers.
They tend to not advertise (at least in San Diego, where there are three
large cable systems serving the county) on broadcast tv, but take advantage
of the large number of unsold ads in their inventory to sell to the existing
"victims."
They find much competition in this area, but are making some short-term
gains. Unfortunately, to make this happen in the long-term, cable companies
will have to buy out wireless telephone providers, since the number of
residential landlines has been in decline for years. Many young people,
with cell phones in hand from age 16, don't even know why people would have
land lines.
The future, for pipeline companies, is becoming nameless utilities. Sure,
they'll trumpet their "brands" to their victims, but that ain't great
marketing.
One of the latest (and most ludicrous) of Bob Miller's posts was that his
(putative; so Bob understands my point, that means something less than
alleged) "solution" will compete with cable. This is sheer engineering
hubris, and I guess Bob is not enough of an engineer to know when smoke is
being introduced into his body.
His entity will not have access to any content. It will not be a cable
system or a satellite system, so it won't have must carry/retrans or may
carry to take advantage of. It won't be wired, so will be subject to RF
interference. It won't have much in the way of telephone, and is "unlikely"
to ever offer wireless directly. It will have tremendous system costs.
Then, unnoticed on this list, there was the announcement by AT&T, Intel &
IBM that came within a day or so of the FCC's WISP on TV frequencies NPRM.
Cometco, announced by those three companies as a joint venture to provide
hot spots several years ago, will cease operations. The principals decided
there was no future for a WISP in Wi-Fi bands. Too much competition, too
expensive to manage and deploy, and too little money since there's plenty of
free spots available.
Of course, Bob Miller and cohorts have the engineering solution that will
overcome any and all obstacles like that. It's just that the idiots at
AT&T, IBM and Intel knew less than Miller & Company. Or did they?
John Willkie
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:
- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at
FreeLists.org
- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word
unsubscribe in the subject line.
Other related posts: