[opendtv] Re: Apple May Rethink Web TV Service, Says Pac Crest - Investors.com
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 17 Nov 2015 23:43:26 -0500
On Nov 17, 2015, at 10:09 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
From the article:
"We expect most direct-to-consumer efforts will fail to generate meaningful
scale," wrote the analyst. "The bar for gaining and sustaining viewership is
extraordinarily high. We do not believe most networks have the combination of
quality and breadth necessary to retain a meaningful number of paying
consumers."
-------------------
And Bert 's analysis:
Not the way this is going to evolve.
As people demand more and more broadband service, the MVPDs themselves will
have to make a choice. Either do a lot of digging in neighborhoods, or
dedicate that walled-in MPEG-2 TS/analog broadcast spectrum to broadband, and
switch the TV business to Internet TV, and do so using for the most part
existing HFC plants. Or existing FTTH for Verizon.
They are meeting the demand, and plan to offer gigabit service within two
years. Internet bandwidth is not the problem.
The paragraph you highlighted above says NOTHING about bandwidth Bert. It is
talking about business models. Essentially, every network going direct versus
selling bundles delivered via the Internet. When they say "networks" they are
talking about CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox, not Google fiber or Verizon FIOS.
And then, once the MVPD has migrated to IP delivery of their TV streams,
nothing will prevent this MVPD from doing what Sling TV did: offer its
service to anyone with broadband. In doing so, they will have a strong
incentive to differentiate their offerings from those of other IP MVPDs, and
this is how we migrate to unwalled TV sources.
This is where you have no clue. Yes all delivery will migrate to IP; that is
inevitable. And yes, nothing will prevent more competition among MVPD services.
But the MVPDs are not calling the shots - the content owners are, and they will
protect the bundles even as they migrate to the Internet. As the article said
-and I agree- they do not have the breadth and quality to go it alone.
It will happen gradually, more than likely. The legacy broadcast streams
dwindling in number, as spectrum is increasingly assigned to broadband.
As I've been saying for many months. There is NO REASON to keep offering
hundreds of rerun channels when almost all library content will be available on
demand. The bundles will shrink to the "breadth" that is realistic for the
limited quantity of quality first run and live content.
Regards
Craig
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