[opendtv] Convergence: This Time We Mean It
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 2 Jan 2006 08:53:09 -0500
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/02/technology/02electronics.html?th&emc=th
Data, Music, Video: Raising a Curtain on Future Gadgetry
By DAMON DARLIN
Published: January 2, 2006
The flat-panel televisions will be getting bigger, the MP3 players
and cellphones will be getting smaller. And almost everything will be
getting cheaper.
But the biggest trend expected at the International Consumer
Electronics Show, which begins this week in Las Vegas, is that these
machines will be communicating with one another. The theme of this
year's show might best be described as Convergence: This Time We Mean
It.
For more than a decade, manufacturers of consumer electronics like
televisions and audio gear have talked about blending their products
with personal computers, so that consumers can enjoy a seamless
stream of data, video and music anywhere. It has not happened,
because the two industries do not have compatible technology
standards and the requisite high-speed Internet connections have not
been widespread enough.
This year all that changes, say executives who will be introducing
new products at the show. They say that consumers will finally be
able to sling images and sound wirelessly around a room or an entire
house. The major electronics makers will be showing TV's with
computer capabilities and phones that will play video and music, as
well as the next generation of digital recording and storage devices.
While technological convergence may now be possible, some fear the
industries have not yet made connecting all those devices simple
enough for the average user.
"There is still a lot of confusion around the connected home," said
Van L. Baker, a market analyst with Gartner, a technology research
and consulting firm. "Reducing it will be the challenge to keeping
the momentum going."
Getting consumers past the confusion of how to link, say, a PC to a
TV will be the next big hurdle.
The show comes after a very good year for consumer electronics.
Plasma and liquid-crystal display televisions, MP3 players and
digital cameras with five or more megapixels of resolution have been
big sellers.
"We don't see any reason that this will slow down anytime soon," Mr.
Baker said. "The transition of entertainment from analog to digital,
of time-shifting and place-shifting, is just getting under way."
Attendees of the electronics show, the biggest trade show in the
country, will be scrambling to get a first glimpse at some of the
products that will fuel the growth of the industry, which represents
$126 billion in annual sales. The annual exhibition is off limits to
the general public, but it is expected to attract 130,000 executives,
dealers, journalists and investors.
More than 2,500 exhibitors, a record, spread across 1.6 million
square feet, another record, will try to grab their attention. This
year, 6 percent of the exhibitors will be from China, illustrating
that nation's significance as a major player in the industry. Among
foreign attendees, China will rank third, behind Canada and Taiwan.
The show is more than just a display of new technological toys. It is
also a forum for industry executives to forge alliances and present
new business strategies.
Bill Gates, the chairman of Microsoft, will give his vision of the
future in a speech Wednesday evening. Sir Howard Stringer, the
chairman and chief executive of Sony, will take his turn Thursday
morning. On Friday morning Terry Semel, the chairman and chief
executive of Yahoo, will speak, followed later that day by Larry
Page, a co-founder of Google.
Intel plans a major announcement about its new Viiv (rhymes with
drive) multimedia platform, which will power PC's built to deliver
digital entertainment. Intel hopes that Viiv will transform the home
computer in the same way that its Centrino platform transformed the
laptop into a mobile communications device. Paul S. Otellini, the
chief executive of Intel, will give a speech Thursday evening
outlining Intel's road map.
Manufacturers are expecting another record year in 2006, but with
continuing declines in prices. Across a broad swath of categories
like cameras and audio and DVD players, consumers will pay less and
get more features. Even in the flat-panel TV industry, prices dropped
as much as 40 percent in 2005. This trend will translate into slower
revenue growth in 2006.
As for new areas of growth, analysts are predicting big sales of game
consoles in 2006 as Sony introduces its PlayStation 3 and Nintendo
brings out its Revolution console. Both devices, like the new
Microsoft Xbox 360, can be used as the central node for a wirelessly
networked home.
Electronics companies will also be introducing new home media servers
and TV's that can receive digital content wirelessly from a PC or via
an HDMI cable (for high-definition multimedia interface). Another hot
topic at the show will be IPTV, or Internet protocol television,
which sends programming over the Internet through a broadband
connection.
Then there are the companies, like Elan Home Systems, that want to
get right in the middle and sell devices to control all the networked
appliances. Elan will be at the show introducing a control pad for
everything in your house, from electronic devices to the drapes.
While major players in the electronics industry continue to squabble
over the format of the next generation of DVD's - Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD
- both factions will be showing products that consumers can buy this
year. The new players will be expensive, some costing more than
$1,000. Still, the industry expects to sell about a half-million of
the new players in 2006, mostly as components in PC's rather than as
stand-alone devices.
In the audio sector, companies are seeking ways to take advantage of
the popularity and dominance of the Apple iPod. Several manufacturers
are planning to announce products that will work with the iPod to
move music to devices around the house.
Another big trend, said Steve Tirado, chief executive of Silicon
Image, a semiconductor maker, is bigger storage devices. "People want
a place to consolidate their digital media."
Ross Rubin, the director for industry analysis at NPD, a market
research firm, said that apart from home networking systems, some new
technologies would make their way to consumer markets this year.
Canon and Toshiba will both present televisions with
surface-conduction electron-emitter displays. The technology produces
crisper pictures than can be offered by existing flat-panel
televisions, the manufacturers say. The sets will go on sale later
this year.
Other Asian TV manufacturers will also demonstrate sets built with
new organic light-emitting diodes that use less energy and could one
day be cheaper to produce than liquid-crystal display panels.
Another notable product development to be seen at the show is the
miniaturization of cathode-ray tube technology to fit into flat-panel
televisions, allowing what could be the best-quality picture yet.
"They will be very high end, very expensive," said Mr. Rubin. But
like that of so many products at the show, the price will eventually
go down.
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