[opendtv] Re: Cord Cutting: Nielsen Casts Doubt on Trend | Variety
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 28 Apr 2015 09:00:19 -0400
On Apr 27, 2015, at 5:32 PM, Daniel Grimes <dan.grimes@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
Purely anecdotal, but I'm not so sure that cord cutting won't grow in the
near future.
I am currently teaching an effects class and before each class I show a clip
with the use of effects from various TV shows, often ones from MVPD networks.
The students rarely recognize the shows, even ones as popular as "Top Gear".
Yet when I showed them "vines" from Zach King, a.k.a. FinalCutKing, everyone
had seen his "vines" or even had subscribed to his "vine".
Personally, I think media distribution is going to shift dramatically in the
next generation.
You are not alone...
Tim Cook said this yesterday during the Apple earnings conference call:
And so I think HBO in particular has some incredibly great content. And so
we’re marrying their great content, our great product and ecosystem, and it’s
clear from looking at the early returns - you know, we’ve only been at this
for a couple of weeks or so - that there’s a lot of traction in there.
And so where could it go? I don’t want to speculate, but you can speculate
probably as good as I can about where that can go. I think we’re on the early
stages of just major, major changes in media that are going to be really
great for consumers, and I think Apple could be a part of that.
Obviously Apple is part of what you do teaching a class about creating special
effects. And this may make your observation a bit more than anecdotal. I
believe it is a reflection of your "audience," which has more than passing
interest in creative media.
But it is also a reflection on the way technology is changing our consumption
and perception of media. Zack's Vines are an ideal format for mobile devices
and a generation that seems to have been raised with a limited attention span.
I think the real question/issue, is how much time this younger generation is
willing to spend vegging in front of a TV?
There are many more options available today. This is a generation raised on
video games and perhaps the first to be able to access almost anything they
want on demand. But it is a generation that still places huge value on
celebrity, even as the technology allows more individuals to dabble with both
creativity and celebrity.
It is also important to note that the 12-25 demographic make up a large portion
of the movie theater demographics and movie rental market.
It is hard to imagine the Zack King phenomenon 2-3 decades ago when we were
just beginning to democratize the tools for creating and distributing content.
When I helped lead the GVG Model 100 project in the early '80s, the equipment
needed to do what Zack does today cost more than $1 million, just for NTSC
quality. With the Model 100, the cost of an edit system dropped close to
$100,000.
But this was still strictly for professionals, not to mention highly limited,
compared to what became possible when we started manipulating video as digital
"objects" in After Effects, with help from an Avid Media Composer, Media 100,
or Final Cut Pro.
Today it is possible to capture high quality stills and HD video on our cell
phones, and edit content on the phone, a tablet, or FCP running on a MacBook.
This has led to a new level of media literacy, and to a certain extent to the
death of traditional norms of creativity.
I trace my loss of interest in modern entertainment media, in part to the rise
of special effects. In too many cases good stories have been replaced with good
special effects. But this seems to play well with the Millennials, many of whom
grew up with complex video games. It seems they either have no attention span
or they go into binge mode; the patience to follow episodic appointment TV no
longer exists. They expect it to be available when they want it.
One of the biggest changes in front of us is how content will be discovered as
we move away from the linear streaming networks and their massive cross
promotion, to a more diverse media landscape funded directly via subscriptions,
small payments, or personalized pre-roll or post-roll ads, rather than constant
commercial interruptions.
Obviously social media will play a major role.
But kids grow up, get jobs, have families and buy houses. And when they do life
changes, and the TV (and second screens) become a more important part of their
lives.
Most everyone agrees with Tim Cook that we are about to see major changes in
the media landscape. I strongly suspect it will be driven primarily by how we
pay for media, with less cost shifting (i.e. paying for stuff we don't watch),
and less dependence on UN-targeted commercials.
Regards
Craig
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