[opendtv] Re: EE Times: Smartphone Shipments Down for First Time
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 02 May 2016 06:35:35 -0400
On May 1, 2016, at 11:06 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
Ever hear about Microsoft a Surface?
So here again, Craig. Since you saw that I specifically addressed the
Microsoft Surface, why didn't you go back and delete your knee-jerk comment?
Because your statement was so absurd it deserved it. The fact that you later
contradicted yourself is no excuse.
Already tablets have taken over all kinds of tasks that formerly required
a PC.
They aren't tablets, they are more accurately called PCs, or the now-common
term "two-in-one." Laptop PCs with detachable touch display. The Surface is
now exclusively an x86 architecture device. The previous ARM-based Surface is
history, Craig. The new Surface tablets, like the original Surface Pro model,
run the same Windows OS and the same apps as any PC. But the lesser tablets,
I guess they call them "slates," are in steep decline.
All true but irrelevant, my statement was about the use of tablets, not
detachable PCs. And as I illustrated, they are not in steep decline.
No Bert, they are not in decline.
Did you bother looking at the graph you posted? It shows negative growth for
tablets, Craig. Numbers well below PC sales. Did you bother reading the
article in the link I provided?
Yes, for the past year there has been negative growth, but not at the rate that
PCs have declined. And. I explained why.
The reality is that people have, finally, gotten past the giddy enthusiasm
for the original tablet formula. That's what the article explains. Phablets
are far more convenient, and PCs (including laptops and Surface type devices)
are infinitely more useful. That leaves tablets with only small, niche roles.
No. That is your reality Bert.
The market grew VERY quickly, and there has not been much reason for most
users to upgrade. And yes, in some developing markets phablets are selling well
to people who either cannot afford a phone and a tablet, and to people who find
a phablet sufficient.
As for useful, that is in the eye of the beholder, and relative to what they
want to do with the device. The fact that detachables are selling at all,
suggests that there are many applications for which people prefer the tablet
form factor and functionality. They are essentially laptop replacements.
I always thought the term coined by the trade press, "post-PC era," was
absurd. But now that the smartphones are showing declining sales, I'm waiting
for that same trade press to coin an equally nonsensical term,
"post-smartphone era."
The current decline says more about the global economy than any particular
device. It is having an impact on all markets...
Like most everyone in the analyst community. There is a lot of hype about what
will replace the smartphone. The reality is the next frontier is what we do
with the range of computing devices, not the form factor.
The Internet of things will be huge. I'm getting ready to buy a smart deadbolt
that senses my phone and allows me to open the lock with a touch. Smart vehicle
technologies are also growing rapidly. These markets will continue to drive
upgrades and growth for mobile devices, while the PC will remain in its
productivity niche.
Regards
Craig
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