[opendtv] Electronic Design: The end of TV as we know it
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 14 Aug 2013 20:08:10 +0000
Another article that ignores the obvious. Once again, making it sound like the
only Internet sources for TV content are this handful of pay-OTT sites.
Also, after discussing the differences between the CEA and the Gfk surveys of
US OTA usage, which are striking differences indeed, it dismisses the
importance by saying, "Regardless of who is right, the OTA percentage is
shrinking."
Now, I know that most trade scribes are probably English majors, but is it so
difficult to get these things right? Way up at the top, it says, "If you are a
broadband TV subscriber like about 85% of the U.S. population you get your TV
via a bundled group of TV channels from a cable or satellite company." Surely,
surely, this supposedly shrinking OTA percentage might not be shrinking after
all? Simple addition here. What is 85 + 19.3? And/or, how does that long term
15 percent compare to 19.3 percent?
The CEA is very close to where I work. Maybe I should go ask them why they have
been working so hard, and for so long, to try to hasten the demise of OTA TV.
What would they gain from it?
Bert
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http://electronicdesign.com/blog/end-tv-we-know-it?NL=ED-03&Issue=ED-03_20130814_ED-03_58&YM_RID=albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx&YM_MID=1416485&sfvc4enews=42
Communiqué
The end of TV as we know it.
Aug. 5, 2013 by Lou Frenzel in Communiqué
Commentary on the status of TV
How do you watch TV? By that I mean what is the source of the TV programming
you watch? If you are a broadband TV subscriber like about 85% of the U.S.
population you get your TV via a bundled group of TV channels from a cable or
satellite company. That divides up as roughly 52% cable and 33% satellite.
(These numbers change daily and are only approximate but they do show the
trend.) And by the way, you pay dearly for that service. That is where I get
most of my TV and the cable/satellite companies have most of us locked in. But
that is changing. The basic trend, although gradual, is that more viewers are
dropping cable TV for Internet-based TV.
Another interesting statistic from the Consumer Electronics Association is that
only 7% of U.S households get their TV over the air (OTA) by an antenna
directly from a local TV broadcast station. That percentage of OTA viewers
keeps declining each year. A Nielsen study in 2012 indicated 9% OTA down from
16% in 2003. The rabbit ear business has got to be in real trouble. That is
also bad news for the broadcast networks who receive payment from the cable
companies to carry the broadcast channels. The recent CBS-Time Warner (TW)
dispute has CBS asking more than TW wants to pay so TW drops the channel. This
hurts all parties including the consumer.
Incidentally, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) disputes the 7%
OTA figure. Their own survey by some group called Gfk says the OTA crowd is
really 19.3% of households. Big difference. Wonder which one is correct?
Regardless of who is right, the OTA percentage is shrinking. No wonder the FCC
wants to capture back some of that prime broadcast TV spectrum for cell phone
and other wireless use at an auction next year. And it should be no surprise
that the white space (unused TV channels) wireless broadband movement is
growing.
Despite these OTA figures a company called Aereo recently started a service to
stream OTA local signals to any device over the Internet. Aereo picks up the
signals and sends them to your cell phone or tablet via Wi-Fi and the Internet.
You buy DVR space on their servers so can store and watch programs later.
Their service now covers only the major cities but more are on the way. You
can get the usual ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, PBS and a few others. And it is a lot
cheaper than cable. What happens to Aereo as broadcasts fade away even more?
According to the figures above, the percentage of Internet TV must be about 8%.
But that is not correct as another survey says that about 28% of TV households
get Internet TV. That means many are using both cable/satellite and the
Internet. The survey indicates about 4% Internet-only homes.
The big winner in all this is the over the top (OTT) TV movement. That means
Internet TV sources like NetFlix, Hulu, YouTube and others. So many of you are
using accessories like TiVo, Apple TV and Roku to get OTT TV on the big screen.
I have a Roku box that streams TV from my Wi-Fi network to my HDTV set. It
works great. It is a pleasure to be able to select a movie or TV show I want
when I want to watch it.
The younger population (ages 18-24) is big on Internet TV watching. Nielsen
says that most U.S. households watch 34 hours of TV per week on average only
about an hour (3%) of which is OTT. That is nearly 5 hours a day. What else
in your life other than sleep or work takes up that much time? No wonder TV
drives our thoughts, opinions and viewpoints. Heavy. Anyway the 18 to 24 year
olds only average 23 hours of TV a week but a greater percentage of it (10%) is
from the Internet. The OTT percentage is increasing.
Another interesting phenomenon is YouTube. This Google property gets millions
of views per day and even millions per views of some episodes. I have heard
that the popular viral Korean Gangman dance video got well over a billion views
so far. While most of the YouTube video is short personal stuff (babies,
kittens, and stupid stuff) some of it is commercial. Many new music groups have
achieved their success by launching songs on YouTube bypassing the commercial
music business. Overall YouTube video is widely consumed. And more and more
of it is via smartphone or tablet. YouTube is so successful they recently
started to divide the business into channels and to begin developing more
formal programming. But anyone can still post videos any time. A really
unexpected TV success.
Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and others are trying to find a way to monetize video
for their businesses. Google's latest attempt to build on their video success
is the announcement of the Chromecast. The Chromecast is a device that looks
like a USB drive and plugs into an HDMI port on your TV. It then links up to
your Wi-Fi network so that it can stream video from your smartphone or tablet
to the big screen. The apps are compatible with both Android and Apple OSs.
It only handles NetFlix and YouTube now but look for more sources in the near
future. The device only costs $35 so should be pretty popular. It too will
probably affect how we watch TV.
The trends seem very clear. Less cable and satellite TV and the virtual
disappearance of OTA TV. Internet TV is the new winner. The cable companies
may morph into Internet-only service providers and try to control (boost)
broadband connection rates to offset the loss of cable subscribers. Maybe that
is the reason Google is trying to roll out its fiber services over the U.S.
Now if only the movie and TV production companies will turn loose of their
shows for wider Internet distribution, this trend will increase faster.
I only wish we could get better quality material. In my opinion, most TV
content is pure crud, insipid and worthless. Yet I guess it is entertaining
and I guess that is what TV is for. We entertain ourselves nearly 5 hours a
day with this drivel. Why aren't we all out being more productive at something
else? Have you tried reading or conversation lately? Are we really that lazy?
I am sure the purveyors of video are happy that we are?
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