[opendtv] Re: Estimate of MVPD subscriptions

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Fri, 7 Aug 2015 00:58:55 +0000

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

One common theme in the recent quarterly results from the MVPDs is
that overall profits were up, despite some hits from sub losses on
the TV side and declining ad revenues. The major reason for the
profit increases was the ADDITION of broadband subs.

So it is disingenuous to pretend otherwise, Craig. What is in demand, and no
one doubts this, is broadband Internet access.

Me thinks these guys are going to survive this technology shift...

Again, no one doubts this. But not the walled-in, facilities-dependent TV
broadcast service.

That's because we will never get to 50% Bert. Consumers are going
to continue to subscribe to bundles of linear networks,

I doubt "linear," at least for most content, but once again, you are being
disingenuous. People will continue to subscribe to "bundles," because they
subscribe to new services like Netflix. So, sure. What is in decline is viewing
of linear TV programs, aka by appointment, and the number of subscribers to the
facilities-dependent bundles, aka traditional MVPD service. Cord cutting refers
to cutting all TV MPEG-2 TS broadcast and in-system, facilities-dependent, VOD
TV content service. Not the broadband service. Same with cord shaving. It
refers to shaving down the use of those old-school MVPD bundles, NOT bundles
from OTT sites.

I know this is obvious to everyone, Craig. But I'm being precise because you
have a way of changing the meaning of words, just so you can go on arguing some
lost cause.

The underlying technology for cable/Fios will shift slowly from
dedicated video bandwidth to generic IP bandwidth,

Unwalled, if that's what you mean by "generic." Not facilities-dependent. TV
content sites operating of neutral Internet pipes. Absolutely. Glad you are
coming around at last. Any "bundles" of content being analogous to "bundles"
peddled by any number of OTT sites, for many years now.

Just like, "let me know when 4:3 TV sets fall to 50% of TVs." Who cares,
Craig? Just about all TV productions are now 16:9, because the trend was
too obvious for anyone to miss.

Apple and oranges. The same companies that drove the cost of a NTSC TV
down until the only profits came from royalties,

You went off on a tangent and missed the point. When a trend is ongoing, the
industry has to accommodate it proactively. The trend to 16:9 sets was
something that only you, Craig, disputed for the longest time. The fact that TV
productions were going to embrace 16:9 whole-hog was obvious. It did not take
lots of statistical analysis, nor did it take anyone keeping count until "50%,"
before virtually nothing TV was being produced in 4:3 anymore.

The displays have generally become wider, with 16:9 the most common
for TV screens,

And for modern computer screens and smartphones too. Aren't iPhone 5 & 6 also
16:9? In fact, many computer monitors use exactly the same pixel count as HDTV.
The legacy iPads are the holdouts for 4:3.

Bert



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