[opendtv] Re: Migration to virtual MVPDs
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 01:48:10 +0000
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> You are putting too much faith in trend lines that are far from clear.
http://www.wdrb.com/story/25704787/tdg-cord-cutting-proclivities-remain-unchanged-among-adult-broadband-users
"... TDG has released a number of recent reports that discuss how the shifting
TV landscape will evolve over the next 5-6 years, including 2020 Vision: Video
Viewing Forecasts by Age and Service. This unique report forecasts how daily
video sourcing will move from one defined exclusively by incumbent services to
a multi-source , multi-screen paradigm defined by the availability of new
content services and the widespread use of multiple viewing platforms. For more
information about TDG's primary research or syndicated reports on the future of
TV and video access and consumption, please contact sales@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."
It does say as of now, 15 percent of adults who subscribe to broadband are
likely to drop legacy MVPD subscriptions, and that this number has been
unchanged since 2011. But it still concludes as it does that the trend is
ongoing.
And one reason for that would be, once you've dropped your MVPD subscription,
you no longer belong to that original set, right? The effect is cumulative,
Craig. 15 percent likely to drop one year, some do, some don't. 15 percent
likely to drop next year, some do, some don't. Do you not see how this
accumulates?
> ESPN and HBO are neither deaf nor dumb.
That's right. HBO is already going direct to consumers TODAY, in Scandinavia. I
wonder what they're up to?
> http://www.techzone360.com/topics/techzone/articles/2014/03/19/373800-what-cord-cutting-ott-multichannel-service-complementary-good.htm
> Read the entire article Bert. You might learn something.
Come now. It doesn't say anything. It's just vague words. The cumulative
effect. Here, from late in 2013, you might learn something:
http://www.businessinsider.com/cord-cutters-and-the-death-of-tv-2013-11
https://www.ncta.com/industry-data
Look at the pay TV market share graphic.
http://www.cedmagazine.com/news/2013/08/its-a-trend-pay-tv-subscribers-penetration-both-declining
This says that one year ago, MVPD subscriptions were supposedly at 86 percent.
Now they are at 80-83 percent, depending whose figures you use. Does that sound
stable? Then it says at the end,
"5 percent of current multi-channel video subscribers did not subscribe at some
time in the past two years and just watched programs from the Internet instead."
Another repeating phenomenon. Craig, get real.
Bert
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