I'm skeptical. Claiming that Verizon is a wireless carrier, when in fact
Verizon is both wireless and cabled, seems a stretch. Any fixed 5G service,
from Verizon or AT&T, or Google Fiber 2.0, does not make them wireless carriers
at all. It's just a small adjustment to the fixed wired service formula.
But that's an aside, I think. The main point here is, don’t expect a lot of
competition for broadband service in the future. Expect consolidation. Which I
think is credible, much more credible than uninformed banalities about
"enormous" competition right around the corner. Which is why we need net
neutrality guarantees.
Bert
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http://www.multichannel.com/news/cable-tv-conventions/analyst-wireless-clash-titans-cable-wins/418124
Finance
Analyst: In Wireless ‘Clash of the Titans,’ Cable Wins
Says economic gain for cable wireless outshines fixed wireless broadband
prospects
2/13/2018 1:14 PM Eastern
By: Mike Farrell
SAN ANTONIO, Texas -- New Street Research managing partner Jonathan Chaplin
said the cable business is going to look vastly different in the next five
years.
“In five years you’re going to go think about this industry very differently,”
Chaplin said at the NCTC Winter Educational Conference here Monday. “Today the
wireless and cable industries have completely separate networks. In five years,
those networks will be as one. The industries are going to converge as well.”
Chaplin calls the coming wireless battle a Clash of the Titans, pitting large
cable operators like Comcast and Charter against wireless behemoths like AT&T
and Verizon Communications.
Both industries are putting their competitive toes in each other’s business,
with Comcast and Charter Communications striking Mobile Virtual Network
Operator (MVNO) agreements with Verizon Communications. Altice USA struck a
similar deal with Sprint late last year and Cox Communications is expected to
have a similar offering, most likely with Sprint at some point, Chaplin said.
MVNO agreements help make the economics of wireless better for cable operators,
Chaplin said. He estimated that with their current MVNOs, Comcast and Charter
can offer wireless service at the same cost as the No. 3 operator in the
country, T-Mobile. As more and more voice traffic moves over IP and WiFi, those
costs drop to the level of the No. 1 and No. 2 providers, Verizon and AT&T.
Lower costs mean a greater opportunity to offer disruptive pricing. And the
advent of 5G will further lower those costs, as well as reducing dependence on
MVNOs.
Chaplin estimated the wireless business is about twice the size of the cable
business and that in the ensuing battle for customers, cable will win, gaining
nearly $30 billion in wireless revenue, mostly at the expense of existing
carriers. Those carriers will likely gain about $5 billion in broadband
revenue, which will be offset by the wireless declines.
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