[opendtv] News: Strike Could Result In 9% Ratings Drop
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 14 Nov 2007 09:25:07 -0500
http://publications.mediapost.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Articles.san&s=70958&Nid=36376&p=428449
Strike Could Result In 9% Ratings Drop
by Wayne Friedman, Wednesday, Nov 14, 2007 7:30 AM ET
SHOULD THE WRITERS' STRIKE CONTINUE for the rest of the season,
estimates are that it could sink network prime-time ratings by 9%.
Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis for
media agency Magna Global USA, says prime-time ratings among
advertisers' key 18-49 viewers could drop by 9% from January to May.
Live program ratings are already down 10% this season versus a year
ago.
The good news for advertisers is that viewer declines will start out
slowly--from a 5% decline in January and February to 8% in March. But
after that, viewer erosion will accelerate.
Sternberg says April could see a 12% hit; May, a 13% drop. It is
during these months that networks typically air more original
programming as they build toward season and series finales.
Part of the equation is the level of reruns already in networks'
scheduling plans. Sternberg says repeat episodes have grown steadily
since the last writers' strike in 1988, which lasted 22 weeks and
cost the industry $500 million.
For instance, in 1988 in the big non-sweep months where repeats occur
--December, January, and March--networks ran an average of 14% of its
prime-time schedule with reruns. In the last three seasons--2004 to
2005, 2005 to 2006, and 2006 to 2007--that percentage more than
doubled to 36% of their schedules. Sternberg notes that February 2007
hit an all-time high: 35% of network prime-time schedules in reruns.
With fewer TV alternatives in 1988, ratings sank 9%. What helps this
time around, he notes, is that viewers are accustomed to many reality
shows (which can be staffed by non-union writers) and more reruns.
The ratings drop may even be less for some networks, he
says--especially if more nights of big-rated original reality shows
are added to the schedule, such as Fox's "American Idol" or ABC's
"Dancing with the Stars."
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