At 1:37 PM -0400 6/30/04, Manfredi, Albert E wrote: >Craig Birkmaier wrote: > >> According to the following report, it is DVD, NOT >> HDTV that is driving the adoption of new digital >> television displays in most areas of the world... > >I think you seriously misinterpreted what the article >is saying. As in: > >"High-definition television (HDTV) - a subset of >the overall DTV market - will eventually have a >dramatic impact on consumer education and >adoption of digital TV in certain parts of the >world." What misinterpretation? Note the use of the term "eventually." The reality is that even here in the U.S., TODAY, DVD is a stronger driver of purchases of HD capable displays than HD receivers and/or program services. I agree that HD will be a strong driver in the future as it becomes more pervasive, ESPECIALLY in non-entertainment applications of digital media. I do not agree that HD entertainment is going to cause any significant shift in the mass market for TV displays in the next few years. Perhaps in a decade we may see HD become commonplace. For the rest of this decade it is going to remain a market niche, closely coupled with home theater systems. > >And > >"At this point, HDTV content delivery, and therefore >set adoption, is essentially limited to Australia, >Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the United States for >the foreseeable future. Digital TV in other parts of >the world will continue to be driven by advances in >flat-panel displays and the red-hot DVD market, ..." Yup. In the countries listed above there is some HD content available. Korea may be the most advanced in terms of peo0ple buying HD capable displays and actually watching HD programming. In Austrailia there is VERY LITTLE HD content available today, as is the case in Japan. Canada is mostly getting its HD content from the U.S. In all of these countries, DVD is the dominant driver of sales of HD capable displays today. > >Bottom line is that only in those parts of the world >where HDTV is unavailable will DVD *alone* drive the >adoption of so-called digital TV, according to this >article. Nobody said anything about "alone." The dominant driver in my purchase of an HD capable display was the desire for a "watchable" big screen image. The integration of a deinterlacer for SDTV was the dominant driver of my purchase. DVD was second. HD is now on the horizon, but still mostly unimportant to my family. Ther are other drivers as well. Perhaps the most significant is the appeal of flat or very thin cabinets that take up less space in the room. For others, it is the ability to display the progressive scan output of a PC, which can act as a DVR, source of content (tuners and libraries of images and music), and a portal to IP based services. HD is just one of many factors that are causing people to buy HD capable displays. >So when you say "in most areas of the world," it's >only true because "most areas" won't see HDTV for >some time! We even disagree here. Because of the success of HD as a niche service in the U.S. and a few other countries, and especially because a significant amount of premium content is now being made available in HD, it is likely that HD services will be available in virtually all developed countries in the next 2-3 years. The most likely form of distribution for this content will be satellite. Cable will also be a factor in some areas. And HD-DVD is just around the corner, IF the major content providers elect to support the new standard. The reality is the same around the world. HD is now, and will become an important driver of premium television services in the near future. This should not be confused with the continuing mass market for SDTV. As Mark Schubin pointed out in this week's memo: >- NPD Intelect, which measures sales to consumers (except Wal-Mart, >catalogs, and Internet) reported 404,660 CRT-based projection TVs in >the first quarter and 56,623 microdisplay-based (DLP and different >forms of LCD) projection TVs. LCD 27-inch and up exceeded plasma. >But CRT still has a roughly 11 times more units sold than non-CRT: The mass market is not going HD anytime soon. Regards Craig ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.