[opendtv] Re: TV Technology: Research Finds Live TV Viewing Shrinks In North America
- From: "Craig Birkmaier" <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> (Redacted sender "brewmastercraig" for DMARC)
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 27 Nov 2018 07:56:07 -0500
On Nov 26, 2018, at 9:10 PM, Manfredi (US), Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Hardly surprising that live TV viewing is declining at a steady clip, right?
And frankly, even the 42% figure seems *way* bloated. In truth, at least half
of that is being recorded on old-fashioned in-home PVR type of devices, for
time shifting. Past figures have shown that more than half of "live TV" is
actually watched time-shifted. A couple of years ago, 53% of "live TV" was
not watched live at all.
I seriously doubt that half of live TV viewing is recorded on PVRs today. If
you read the article, you will learn a few useful facts.
First, much of live TV is event driven. Much of this is sports, but there are
still large audiences for first run network shows as well, and those obnoxious
awards shows.
Second, the article avoids discussing what happens every years in the fourth
calendar quarter:
In early 2012, live broadcast TV accounted for 60% of video consumed on
televisions; however, as of the end of last year that figure had dropped to
44% and by the end of the third quarter this year it had fallen to 42%,
according to the research firm.
Live viewing always increases significantly during the 4th quarter due to
college and NFL football. It is quite possible that the totals for 2018 may
increase above 44% rather than declining to 42%
And then there is this:
"While OTT SVOD has significantly changed viewing patterns among consumers,
live video is far from dead. We still see massive spikes in viewership for
live events. However, an increasing amount of live viewership is on
connected devices," said Brett Sappington, Senior Director of Research,
Parks Associates.
The ability to access both VMVPD and TV Everywhere content on connected devices
is allowing many people to watch live TV when they are away from the TV in the
family room. I do this all the time now on both my phone and iPad. I often
“listen” to news and live sports in my new truck, since the bits for for my
DirecTV Now service are zero rated.
So bottom line, live TV is finding its natural place in a much more competitive
media world. That being said, both live and live plus 7 ratings for shows on
the broadcast networks continue to decline. This is not because of OTT services
per se; it is a reflection of the quality of the broadcast content that is
being offered versus the many new sources of programming that are available.
ANd it is a reflection of the obnoxious ad loads on broadcast TV programming.
I have cut back significantly on watching live sports - especially football -
because the constant ad breaks are disrupting both the game and the viewing
experience.
My take is, the figure of "live" usage keeps falling, because habits have
their own momentum. People are used to using an in-home PVR, so they continue
to do so, even years after there are better ways of doing this. Eventually,
something will make them try the newer technologies, and that's when they'll
question their need for an MVPD at all. The process can take a long time.
I now have a cloud DVR as part of the DirecTV Now service. I don’t use it much,
largely because I don’t watch most of the programming available on the VMVPD
service, and many of the programs I do like are available on demand.
What Bert continues to ignore is that a very large percentage of the homes that
are “cutting the cord,” are just switching from a facilities based MVPD service
to an OTT VMVPD service. The article has an interesting observation:
According to the white paper, by 2022 the number of pay TV subscribers in
North America will drop to 103 million. By way of comparison, Eastern Europe
will have 99 million pay TV subscribers, and Western Europe will have about
130 million.
It is not clear what this white paper includes as pay TV subscribers. Obviously
MVPD and VMVPD services. It may include homes that do not subscribe to an MVPD
service but do pay for Netflix or another service. This article from August
gives us some real numbers on (V)MVPD subscribers:
https://www.rbr.com/despite-vmvpd-subscriber-surge-overall-pay-tv-numbers-down/
Strategy Analytics’ analysis of pay TV subscriber numbers shows vMVPDs with
868,000 net adds in the second quarter of 2018, bringing the total number of
vMVPD subscribers to 6.73 million, up 119% year-over-year.
Despite this, overall pay TV subscribers (cable, satellite, IPTV, vMVPD) fell
to 93.78 million, breaking a string of two consecutive quarters of growth.
So one must question what the white paper is saying when it claims there will
be 103 Pay TV subscribers in 2022.
Which continues to make me wonder why (a) this "live" nonsense is being hyped
up as a requirement for so-called vMVPDs, like it's such a big deal, and (b)
the continued confused hype about the ATSC 3.0 broadcast standard. You don't
need a broadcast infrastructure (cable, DBS, or OTA) to distribute live
content, especially when actual live viewing is only sporadic hours, here and
there.
Which continues to make me wonder why Bert cannot comprehend that there will
always be an audience for Live TV programming, if only for news, sports and
events. And there will always be a live audience for very popular shows - its a
social thing...
As for ATSC 3.0, the hype is far more significant than the reality. I have yet
to hear a single broadcast network announce support for the standard. But there
are many companies who hope desperately that they can get the public to upgrade
again; and there are a few global markets that never went digital that could
leapfrog DVB and ATSC 1.0.
And then the defensive comments about "live TV," which never fail to appear:
...
So, as implied by this comment, even if "live" content, in a few events, is
still important, that still doesn't mean that the "live" content is being
consumed on devices that use broadcast, be it OTA or legacy MVPDs. OTT sites
can distribute "live" content too, no problem at all.
DUH. Have you seen all the commercials for Hulu Live Bert?
From the Hulu website:
HULU WITH LIVE TV
More Than Just Live TV
Watch your favorite live sports, news, entertainment, and more. Plus, get
unlimited access to the entire Hulu streaming library – all for only
$39.99/month.
And there is no contract - you can unsubscribe any time.
Which addresses another interesting statistic from the white paper:
The Parks Associates research also found the cancellation rate of OTT video
service to be holding steady at 18 %, and that more than 85% of millennials
subscribe to at least one OTT video service.
It is now easy to subscribe to a service for a short period to see specific
programs or events, then unsubscribe. For example, CBS All Access sees a spike
in subscribers during March Madness.
We've been here before. If actual live viewership is a small fraction of TV
viewership, at what point does it stop making sense to continue making a big
deal about the "live-only" infrastructures? Why do broadcasters seem to think
the broadcast transmission is so all-important?
Because it is the basis for their oligopoly and their ability to generate a
massive second revenue stream from MVPD and VMVPD services. And then there are
the political ramifications of “the mass media.” The total ad spend for the
recent elections set another record for a midterm election - $5.8 billion. And
broadcasters got the lion’s share of these ads.
It's true that OTA TV (radio too) requires much less distributed
infrastructure than the Internet needs, or for that matter, cable TV. So it's
nice to have that fall-back, when emergency situations arise. But strictly
for that emergency role, just how many stations do we really need, in a given
market? Two? Three?
One. It is typically the local talk radio station, as they have the
infrastructure in place to deal with these emergencies...
TV is good for the run up to a disaster, but when the power goes out...
The time has come to recover the broadcast spectrum, and shut down the FCC.
Regards
Craig
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