[opendtv] Re: White paper from CEA
- From: John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx, opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 29 Oct 2005 02:14:28 -0400 (EDT)
really?
You haven't noticed that Europe is a largely mature market, with few new
players and just one significant manufacturer? I will concede that Australia
is an interesting case, but it's really simple -- if you're unhappy with your
returns in Europe, to make the simple modifications necessary to deal with
Australia's channelization.
Largely what we're dealing with here is the fact that there are few U.S.
manufacturers of this type of equipment, and that's been going on since GTE's
Sylvania got out of the picture tube business in 1968. If not before.
Sony lost it's nerve to introduce snazzy products when their betamax dreams
finaly ended in 1993. The market's last really signifcant advance was
Trinitron, and other makers innovated only in their marketing. And lies.
And Bob, part of the reason that the chickens are even more scared is the ill
informed "engineering analyses" of non-engineers. The only thing you really
have to offer is f,u and d. That just gives the scared more to be scared about.
Also, I note that the United States has pretty serious antitrust/restraint of
trade enforcement wthin it's shores, and one doesn't need to read too far into
the business pages to encounter Japanese and Korean companies with brutal
business practices who engage, usually off-shore, to control U.S. markets
through cartels. RAM prices, motherboards, plasma displays, solvents used to
make chips and other areas are good examples of just the more recent
allegations of bad deeds in the consumer electronics field. These types of
cases are widely suspected, but t's hard to bring antitrust cases due to time,
manpower and expense involved by the cops, let alone that you need to have an
insider to even puncture the cartels. I suspect that there are more cases of
collusion affecting the U.S. market than have been alleger.
If you had the cohones and wherewithal instead of just the voice, you would
have already started -- if not completed -- the studies on ofdm into ntsc and
ofdm into NTSC interference. The last time I checked, the nearest neighbors to
the North (2800 mile border, not including Alaskas) and South (1849 mile
border) are occupied by countries that support both of these communications
protocols. Any idea to go to ofdm would have to create the same or less
interference as is caused today against these foreign operations.
Then, you can start to dea with the myriad domestic interference issues. And,
the issues are not just broadcasting into broadcasting issues. As Mark Schubin
has pointed out in his memo concerning Dallas, and there was one case in San
Diego where patient-monitoring equipment received interference from DTV
transmitters ny channels removed from the frequencies used by the patient
monitoring equipment. And, in least at the San Diego case, in which the
hosptial eventually conceded that they were ultimately at fault, the monitoring
equipment was used exclusively in the intensive care unit, making it a matter
of life and death.
To say that stations just have to decrease their power makes the whole matter a
non-starter. So that just compounds the problem: without basic interference
studies, the whole matter is a non-starter.
ATSC would not be interested in sponsoring such studies, and the failure of
those many ofdm/dvb-t advocates among the weeds at CEA just begs the question:
if they are so favorably disposed towards dvb just why havent they completed
the studies that they know will be needed?
Their words -- and yours -- are belied by their -- and your -- actions and
inactions. I'f I've written this type of message on this list once, I've done
it a dozen times.
The current situation, in my mind, just enables you to not enter -- and thereby
not fail - in the marketplace.
If Australia is such a good market, why aren't you there? If things are going
so swimmingly in Europe and Singapore, why aren't you in those markets?
If DVB-T is such a great idea in the U.S., why is the Qualcomm MediaFlo system
not selling like gangbusters? Why are the still in demo mode?
Do you think it might have something to do with the fact that the content
distributors and makers in the U.S. are -- wisely or not -- somewhere between
happy to complacent with 8vsb?
Not happy with the content providers? Create your own and learn a few lessons.
People flock to interesting, new and unique programming content. It's safe to
say that many to most of the program offerings on terrestrial, satellite and
cable these days aren't new, are far from interesting and well below unique.
So, there's an angle or two here to play.
However, there are still the big dogs and the porch sitters. If the CE folks
aren't playing well in the market, they're still on the porch. Sounds like a
good opportunity for the right person with the right idea.
I see the U.S. as being the most competitive media marketplace in the world
since Silvio Berlusconi started buying up Italian pornsters to create his first
network.
I see the non-computer CE marketplace being about as competitive as that for
breakfast cereal. Beyond oats, corn and wheat, just what are the differences
between the products?
You tend to provide deeply negative assessments of the overall TV gear
marketplace, in between spouts of euphoria about the prototypes of various CE
manufacturers who mght just be playing with you.
Do what the NAB and MSTV are attempting, but do it one better. Define the
actual receiver characteristics you need, down to multipath rejection,
selectivity and sensitivity and the like, and issue a RFP. You play them;
don't let them play you.
Or, design and stich together your own system from the ic of others and become
a fabless fab.
To me, switching modulation just won't do much. Craig's boogeymen will still
dominate the content marketplace.
More than a decade ago, George Gilder predicted that terrestrial would largely
be used by phone companies within 20 years, and TV would be delivered
exclusively by cable and satellite. I doubted the prediction then, but it gets
harder and harder each year to make the case.
Broadcasting is dying. Long live broadcasting. But, it's just not as special
these days as it was when I was a child. That will change, or the first
sentence in this paragraph will prevail and the second sentence will be a joke.
John Willkie, who currently has too much time on his hands, and is wondering
what happened to that Wal-Mart posting of his from yesterday. A resend is
pending.
-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Oct 29, 2005 6:15 AM
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [opendtv] Re: White paper from CEA
Dale Kelly wrote:
>Bert wrote:
>* If I were
>
>
>>a conspiracy theorist, I'd guess the reason they aren't
>>making it to store shelves quickly is that CE vendors
>>make more money by building only proprietary boxes for
>>individual service providers. And the service providers
>>prefer it that way as well.
>>
>>
>
>As you likely recall, that's been my opinion for a number of years. I simply
>remove the term "theory"; CE member actions over the past four to five years
>presage this outcome.
>However, it might be instructive to learn what retail ATSC product is
>available in Korea. Does anyone know?
>
>* I don't know why these boxes
>
>
>>haven't been on store shelves for the past two years,
>>but I know it has nothing to do with RF modulation
>>schemes.
>>
>>
>
>Five years ago I believe that it could have made a difference.
>
>Dale
>
>
It would make a MAJOR difference right now, today, if we switched to
DVB-T IMO. First of all you would have fifty manufacturers chomping on
the bit to make all kinds of receivers for the US market.
Bob Miller
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
>Behalf Of Manfredi, Albert E
>Sent: Friday, October 28, 2005 1:27 PM
>To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: [opendtv] Re: White paper from CEA
>
>Bob Miller wrote:
>
>
>
>>Bert says, "When reasonably priced and good recording
>>devices with integrated ATSC receivers become
>>available,"
>>
>>When? Why not now?
>>
>>
>
>Don't ask me, I ain't the CE guy.
>
>I am baffled by the implication, yours and others, that
>somehow DVB-T would change this state of affairs.
>
>ATSC is perfectly capable of being applied to such
>recording devices, at prices that are competitive with
>DVB-T. The question of why such products are finding it
>so difficult to get to store shelves.
>
>
>
>>With the tuner mandate/agreement, you'd think such
>>products would be a slam dunk, wouldn't you? If I were
>>a conspiracy theorist, I'd guess the reason they aren't
>>making it to store shelves quickly is that CE vendors
>>make more money by building only proprietary boxes for
>>individual service providers. And the service providers
>>prefer it that way as well.
>>
>>
>
>And that the American consumer is willing to be led
>around by the nose by umbillical service providers more
>than their Euro and Aussie counterparts are.
>
>What do you want me to say? I don't know why these boxes
>haven't been on store shelves for the past two years,
>but I know it has nothing to do with RF modulation
>schemes.
>
>Bert
>
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