Here’s some thoughts that I’ve had married with some comments and takes from
the dwindling number of contacts I have in the pro and college games….. as
usual, a few high profile names will be missed out of this, but I’ll update
things as and when players are picked and I’ll watch some tape and provide a
more focused review once it’s over.
This draft is a nightmare. Instead of a pool of 2,000-2,500 prospects to grade
and mine, some people tell me that teams have only had 600 players to scout
this year. The result of this is that it is a top heavy draft and that players
will be drafted from round 5 onwards who would in a normal year be free agents.
Teams with multiple early picks, teams stockpiling picks next year have an
advantage here because anything outside of the top 150 carries a great risk.
Teams would be wise to stockpile picks in the top half of this draft and trade
low picks either in moves to get up in the draft this year or for picks next
year. It’s a mess.
QB - You know the names and positives of the top prospects, so I won’t go
through them here. Each of them has a flaw though and all of them have
benefitted from the systems they played in. I don’t think Trevor Lawrence is in
that Andrew Luck / Elway class that scouts rave about historically, I think he
has issues throwing from the pocket when he’s pressured and will telegraph
throws at times. Zach Wilson doesn’t have a great frame, has an injury history
and again lacks pocket presence, I have concerns about him on several levels.
Trey Lance is inexperienced and has inconsistent mechanics, he’ll take time,
but I really like his potential, he is made for today’s NFL. Mac Jones lacks
mobility and arm strength and has a low ceiling, again the scheme allowed him
to throw to dynamic, wide open receivers and you wonder if he can get the ball
into tight windows. Justin Fields needs to work on his reads and cracks under
pressure sometimes, again, he too benefitted from a superior sporting cast. I
can’t figure this out. I know that of the five, some or all of them may bust
out. Again, the plan has to be to protect them, surround them with a supporting
cast and play them only when they are ready to play. Take some pressure off
them. To fail on these three points will doom these players.
Sleeper - Davis Mills, Stanford - I’m not sure he’s a sleeper anymore, he’s a
developmental pro style passer with injury question marks and will make poor
decisions at times, but there’s real talent here.
RB - This is an interesting group and teams picking them need to be careful as
each prospect has flaws. Najee Harris reminds me of another former Alabama RB
in Mark Ingram, he doesn’t strike me as a big play threat, but rather a big
power back who is patient and reliable in all three phases - the Matt Forte
comparison is also one I agree with and I loved Forte at Tulane. Teams must
understand what they have with him. Travis Etienne is athlete, a home run
hitter and the way he explodes and can cut at high speed is incredible and as a
receiver he is excellent too. Was he a product of their system, though? I
wonder if he is a Dalvin Cook type who can carry it 25-30 times a game, or an
Alvin Kamara type who doesn’t get the volume of carries between the tackles but
is a chunk player in the passing and running game. His pass protection is
lacking which may be a turn off for certain teams (and you know who I’m
referring to here….) I love Javonte Williams, he’s a smaller power back and
defenders have to really be sharp to get him on the ground, there are flaws, he
needs to make better decisions and his pass protection needs work, but he’ll be
good - someone compared him to a cross between Frank Gore and Josh Jacobs and I
like that. Outside of these three, Kenneth Gainwell has size concerns but I
like the versatility, Michael Carter is a short guy who punches above his
weight, I like him but he’s not a grinder between the tackles, neither is Trey
Sermon, but their outside skills are good. Keep an eye on Kylin Hill who is as
explosive as they get.
Sleeper - Pooka Williams Jr, Kansas - One of those players that someone in the
game tipped me off about and asked me to take a look, he is tiny and won’t be a
feature back, but he is as explosive as any runner in the draft and is a great
receiver too. He is made for the Matt Canada’s off this world…….
WR - Ja’Marr Chase strikes me as a phenomenal prospect with elements of Larry
Fitzgerald, Steve Smith and DeAndre Hopkins in his game. Like Fitz, he just
wants the ball when it’s in the air and will box out anyone to get to it. The
Alabama pairing of Smith and Waddle are unimpressive physically and that is a
concern, but have those sudden movements and explosive playmaking ability that
you get from the likes of Tyreek Hill and others. Kadaruis Toney is similar but
there are off the field concerns with him, I love Rashod Bateman’s route
running, a creative offensive co-ordinator will get a lot out of Elijah Moore
who has Antonio Brown comparisons, on the field at least. Terrace Marshall is a
deep threat who struggles some in traffic and Rondale Moore is going to be
great. Again, he’s small, and lacks polish, but he’s just a game changing
playmaker. Amari Rodgers is the son of Tee Martin. I have nothing other to add
to this, other than it makes me feel incredibly old.
Sleeper - D’Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan - Again, I’m not sure if he is a
classic sleeper because those who have seen him are raving about him, he’s
still learning the game but he has an awful lot too offer as a playmaker and
can really motor after the catch.
TE - I don’t look a Kyle Pitts as a traditional TE, but he’s a mismatch against
a defense wherever you line him
up. Great athlete who stretches the field and will block, excellent hands, he’s
going to be a Calvin Johnson type of threat on the field. Pat Freiermuth has
drawn Heath Miller comparisons, but he reminds me of a Gronk type because of
his size and lack of acceleration. Brevin Jordan needs to pay attention to
detail, but he has good potential and Tommy Tremble needs to get sharper but he
has talent too. Trey McKitty is the best pure blocker in this draft who can
catch. Hunter Long is a hit the seam, turn around and catch it guy.
Sleeper - Ben Mason, Michigan - A TE/FB/H-back, special teams type who will
stick because of his versatility.
T - Penei Sewell is still developing technically, but his physical skills,
balance and instincts for the position are flawless. He’ll be a Pro Bowler,
Rashawn Slater can play any position along the line and play it well, Christian
Darrisaw needs a mean streak, Teven Jenkins has some problems with speed, but
he’s powerful and athletic and dominates in the run game. Sam Cosmi and Liam
Eichenberg lack power but is technically sound, Cosmi frequently comes up in
conversations around the more overrated players in the draft. Walker Little has
major medical concerns but he has the ability and athleticism to start at left
tackle and I’d be happy with Dillon Radunz on my team either at tackle or guard
and James Hudson can play left tackle. too.
Sleeper - Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa - Classic developmental project, great
athlete.
Interior linemen - Alijah Vera-Tucker is a classic guard who should be a good
one for the next decade. Alex Leatherwood might be suited at guard in the long
term as might Jaylen Mayfield, but both can start at tackle too.Wyatt Davis is
solid too. At center, Landon Dickerson’s injury prone which raises alarms for
me but he’s very solid. Creed Humphrey is a safer option, Quinn Meinerz is
intriguing coming from a lower level of competition as he does, Josh Myers is
tough and smart without being too athletic.
Sleeper - Meinerz isn't a sleeper, but it should be interesting how he copes
with the rise in competition.
EDGE - The strength of the D-line is in the edge group, the DT group is awful.
Jaelen Phillips is the best 4-3 DE for me, great motor on him, Azeez Ojulari is
a classic 3-4 OLB/DE with the speed and bend around the edge, Zaven Collins
would have been the best pass rusher in the NFL if he played on the 1996
Steelers, quick and versatile, he can play inside or outside, there’s a
legitimate Urlacher comparsion there, so keep an eye on him. Kwity Paye might
deceive those looking for a pass rusher but he’s a great run stuffer, Jayson
Oweh’s speed is incredible but needs to play up to his numbers, if he does, he
will be one of the best players in this draft, Joe Tryon has the tools but
needs to put it all together, Greg Rousseau is boom or bust, Carlos Basham and
Rashad Weaver are versatile too.
Sleeper - William Bradley-King, Baylor - A high energy 3-4 type who can be
disruptive.
DT - Christian Barmore of Alabama is the best of a bad bunch, but is a
borderline first round pick. He’s raw and needs work but has a great motor.
Levi Onwuzurkie has good hands, Marlon Tuipulotu is stout. Milton Williams
needs to get stronger. Davion Nixon is a one gap scheme player, but is
disruptive. These are the only ones who look like they could go in the top 75
picks or so. Milton Williams is a workout warrior but isn’t a great player at
this point. Tyler Shelvin is the best NT in this draft, closely followed by
Alim McNeill.
Sleeper - Jaylen Twyman, Pitt - He got swamped at times last year, but he has
good pass rush moves that are worth a look late and should fit into a rotation
on the next level.
LB - Micah Parsons sat out last year, but was one of the most instinctive, ball
hawking LB’s I’ve seen in recent years, he’s the kind of player you build a
defense around. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is safety-sized and will make mistakes,
but his range and ability are top class. Jamin Davis is a run and hit LB who
needs to work on taking on blockers, Nick Bolton struggles in coverage and is
undersized, but is very productive, Chazz Surratt needs to work on his take on
ability too, but he’s a tackling machine and very intelligent, Pete Werner
needs some work, but is versatile and has great range, he did a lot on that
defense. Jabril Cox has split opinions, some think he is limited, others think
he has a lot of upside and can be coached up.
Sleeper - Dylan Moses, Alabama - Destined for greatness before a knee injury
made him a serious medical risk. If the knee checks out, he’s worth a shot in
the middle of the draft.
CB - An interesting group with a lot of split opinions about them, I like
Jaycee Horn, maybe he needs to play with a little more discipline, but he’s a
great man cover corner, Patrick Surtain II isn’t strong, but is very smooth,
Greg Newsome has durability concerns, but can start if healthy, Caleb Farley
has a big upside to go with injury concerns, Asante Samuel Jr is versatile,
Elijah Molden is undersized but capable.
Sleeper - Darren Hall, San Diego State - A tough, press corner and athletic.
needs work on technique.
S - Trevon Moehrig is athletic and productive and can tackle and cover which is
a rarity in the game today, he’s a really good player and a really safe
pick.Jevon Holland is solid and one of my favourite players in this draft is
Richie Grant, he has some minor things to tidy up, but he’s a disruptive force
who makes play after play on the ball, smart, intelligent and a leader, I loved
watching him in college. Hamsah Nasrildeen is a box enforcer too and Elijah
Molden is undersized, but has talent.
Sleeper - Damar Hamlin, Pitt - Solid all around.
K/P - Evan McPherson and Jose Borregales are draftable kickers, Max Duffy,
James Smith, Drue Chrisman and Pressley Harvin III are draftable punters, we
should start seeing them off the board from round 6 onwards.
Finally, a list of 10 players who caught my eye through the season and who
really intrigue me as to where they will be picked and the teams and schemes
they will wind up with, they would have been All-Dave team considerations back
in the day…..
Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State
Javonte Williams, RB North Carolina
Kylin Hill, RB Mississippi State
Rondale Moore, WR Purdue
Quinn Meinerz, C Wisconsin-Whitewater
Creed Humphrey, C Oklahoma
Rashad Weaver, DE Pittsburgh
Pete Werner, LB Ohio State
Asante Samuel Jr, CB Florida State
Richie Grant, S Central Florida
And, in an incredibly packed field this year, "the name of the draft" award
goes to DiCaprio Bootle, CB, Nebraska