Well, it *is* 100% likely to land. How crispy it'll be afterwards is
the question.
Seriously, the landing part of this flight is a low-cost fast-turnaround
incremental-development engineering test, not a NASA-style
we've-spent-billions-simulating-everything-endlessly-and-we've-fooled-ourselves-we-have-four-nines-the-first-time
operation.
Put another way, this is still part of the process where they learn to
get enough reliability for eventual profitable recoveries. I'd expect
max allowable winds for landing are part of what they still need more
flight test data on.
That said, yeah, it'll definitely be an interesting test.
On 12/21/2015 8:58 AM, Ian Woollard wrote:
Yeah, why would it be 10% more likely to land?
At this point, shouldn't it be ~100% likely to land? Are they saying it
takes it from 90% to 99%?
Or, if those aren't the kind of numbers they're looking at, how are they
ever going to get 10 landings in a row?
Should be an interesting test.
On 20 December 2015 at 22:15, Henry Vanderbilt
<hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
And Elon Musk's twitter feed now shows this:
"Just reviewed mission params w SpaceX team. Monte Carlo runs show
tmrw night has a 10% higher chance of a good landing. Punting 24 hrs."
Hmm. Winds? FWIW, the Canaveral weather includes a "beach hazard
bulletin" warning of rough surf and strong offshore winds this evening.
On 12/20/2015 11:30 AM, (Redacted sender monsieurboo for DMARC) wrote:
And the SpaceX link for live video of the action is quite simply
their
current home page:
http://www.spacex.com/
Cheers,
Mark L.
Subject: [AR] Re: F9 Launch/Update Thread
From: Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>
Date: Sat, 19 Dec 2015 09:51:19 -0700
SpaceX worked through the issues and got their static fire test done
late Friday. They currently hope to launch in a brief window at
8:29 pm
eastern Sunday. (Next window would be Tuesday.) Best wishes to their
operations crew for a successful flight in time for all to be
home for
Christmas.
--
-Ian Woollard
Sent from my Turing machine