Hi
I think one of VO's problems was it suddenly "appeared" with huge amounts of
available cash. They didn't grow. Compare them to Rocket Lab. RL started
small and grew into success. Peter Beck build high power rockets out of
composites. After high school, he worked in a composites shop. I visited RL
in 2019 and was amazed at the small team that was making great strides. RL's
rockets are made out of, you guessed it, composites. The design teams of the
small orbital launch companies I visited are in the range of 10 to 20 people.
VO was big and inefficient.
Whenever there is a shake out of an industry, the autopsies of the failed
companies are revealing about both the market and the companies. I'm looking
forward to someone writing the history of the launch industry boom & bust. VO
will have a chapter.
Rick Wills
Huber Heights, Ohio
-----Original Message-----
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> On Behalf Of
Ben Brockert
Sent: Monday, 3 April, 2023 9:57 AM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AR] Re: The end of Virgin Orbit
Some VO people I've talked to said that when he and the Boeing entourage came
in they went hard on traditional "failure is not an option", and that the first
orbital attempt had to work. That refocus significantly delayed the first
flight, which then delayed learning from actual flight test data, and the first
flight didn't succeed anyway, as is nearly standard for first flights.
It would be fantastic if there was one person there who wrote a modern "Soul of
a New Machine". It's relatively rare to be there for the entire arc of a
company from scrappy startup to venture funded to public to going under, and
rocket development stories are always interesting to read. There are a few
books written about the industry so far, but they're mostly from outside
perspectives. (I'm waiting to see if any of the dumb shit I've said is in
Ashlee Vance's new book, coming out shortly.)
On Mon, Apr 3, 2023 at 5:43 AM Troy Prideaux <troy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Thanks Chuck. Certainly not a flattering portrait of company CEO Dan Hart.
Troy
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> On
Behalf Of crogers168 ("crogers168")
Sent: Monday, April 3, 2023 12:46 PM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AR] Re: The end of Virgin Orbit
To All:
I thought this was a good article on What Went Wrong with Virgin Orbit on the
CNBC web site.
Virgin Orbit: What went wrong with Richard Branson's company
(cnbc.com)
A few excerpts:
"Given the company’s burn rate near $50 million a quarter, Virgin Orbit was
targeting profitability once it got beyond a launch rate, or cadence, of a
dozen missions per year."
A dozen launches a year for a continuing launch business was at least a good
place to start. They were nowhere near that. See the next quote.
"While Virgin Orbit had aimed to launch seven missions last year, that number
was steadily guided down quarter after quarter, closing out 2022 with just
two completed lunches – the same as the year before."
Another excerpt:
"Branson, Virgin Orbit’s largest stakeholder, was unwilling to fund the
company further, as CNBC previously reported. Instead, he began hedging
against his 75% equity stake through a series of debt rounds. That debt gives
the flashy British billionaire first priority of Virgin Orbit assets in the
event of the now-impending bankruptcy."
"first priority on assets in event of the now-impending bankruptcy". This
supports the "Branson gets the assets" theory, whatever it will be worth to
get them. As other have noted, I don't think the assets will be useful
without the associated personnel.
Charles E. (Chuck) Rogers