[opendtv] Re: 20050926 Mark's Monday Memo
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2005 12:47:59 -0400
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> Two problems here. A sizable and growing percentage
> of this 15% do not watch TV on a regular basis. And
> a sizable percentage will move to cable or DBS when
> NTSC goes off the air.
Craig, prove it. I'm saying it is very illogical to
make these claims without proof, and the best you can
do is repeat the unsupported claims. I don't buy it.
> The logic is simple and clear. As I mentioned above,
> a portion of this group is out-of-play because they
> are simply saying NO to TV, or severely restricting
> the amount of TV that they allow family members to
> watch.
And what percentage is that?
> Another portion already has cable or DBS and only
> uses off-air TV infrequently for a 2nd or third set.
No. The 15 percent are households with OTA TV only,
not households that use both OTA and a subscription
service.
> By the way Bert, the percentage of off-air viewers
> have not been a constant. They have been declining
> steadily for two decades.
Well, I've been reading about 15 percent for at least
the past 6 years. Sure, if you go back to the early
1980s, the percent of OTA users was higher. Cable
hadn't been fully deployed yet. What matters is now,
with DBS and cable available to virtually anyone who
wants it. And the level has stabilized for the past
several years, by all reports I've read.
> If you REALLY want OTA to become a competitive
> factor, all that is necessary is to eliminate must
> carry and retransmission consent.
That's a different discussion. In any event, the
broadcasters and congloms benefit from cable and DBS
coverage as much as those subscription services
benefit. Without the content, those services would
have to roll their own, which would increase their
costs. You're always going to see tension there, but
the fact of the matter is, each needs the other.
Without going off in a zillion different tangents, I
was simply saying that the market for ATSC STBs would
be huge in the US, if NTSC were turned off, relative
to this market in countries which have shown a viable
DTT model.
As to "going back to antennas," aside from the fact
that indoor antennas will work better with the new
receivers than they did with NTSC, your negative
estimate about people's willingness is misplaced.
I'm sure cable companies would have loved for that
to be true, when DBS came to be. But it wasn't.
People are apparently perfectly happy to erect their
own antenna or hire someone to do so. Given a good
reason.
Bert
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