[opendtv] 4 reasons for 3-D TV, 7 more for why it's a long shot
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:19:15 -0500
Some innovations fill a real need, even if that need cannot immediately be
articulated by the average joe.
Stereo sound was successful. I think mostly that was because it sounds great,
compared to mono, while not demanding any annoying restrictions on the
audience. You don't need to wear earphones, you're not absolutely restricted to
a seating position (it still sounds fine even if you are not in an ideal
position for the 3D stereophonic effect). It filled a real need without
creating inconvenient side effects.
Similarly, improved defintion TV (HDTV mainly) and flat panel displays. Even if
the average joe didn't intrinsically grasp how awful analog TV quality was,
when the improvement showed up, he figured it out. And naturally, flat panel
displays would be a slam dunk, compared with the cumbersome, ungainly CRTs.
3D TV? Looks like you have to wear glasses, or be restricted to few seating
positions, and what does it look like if you don't take these steps? At 3D
movies, taking glasses off makes the image unwatchable. Is it the same for 3DTV?
Not to mention the queasiness.
I don't know. This may be one of those innovations for which there really is no
pent up demand. Even if people are willing to pay an extra $3 for the
occasional movie experience. 3DTV seems too much about boosting sales and not
enough about filling a need.
Bert
-----------------------------------------
4 reasons for 3-D TV, 7 more for why it's a long shot
Junko Yoshida
(10/28/2009 8:03 PM EDT)
URL: http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=221100166
YOKOHAMA, Japan - If a panel at a flat-panel display conference held here
Wednesday (Oct. 28) is any indication, the possibility of 3-D entertainment in
the home is a foregone conclusion, at least if you believe Japanese consumer
electronics giants such as Sony and Panasonic.
More accurately, 3-D is a matter of survival for these companies, whose
two-dimensional sales continue to decline.
At the conference here, FPD International 2009, top executives promoting
Blu-ray systems -- from Panasonic and Sony, respectively -- made clear that
they are ready for a 2010 launch of full HD 3-D-equipped Blu-ray players and
matching 3-D TV sets.
The new 3-D Blu-ray format, whose standardization is scheduled to finish at the
end of this year, will use two 1920 x 1080p full HD resolution frames, one for
the right eye and another for the left eye. 3-D disks will maintain backward
compatibility with 2-D Blu-ray players, so that new disks can be played back in
2-D on current Blu-ray hardware.
While there will be a single standard for 3-D Blu-ray disks and players, the
market is likely to see fragmented 3-D display technologies on new 3-D TV sets.
Broadcasters likely to opt for different 3-D technology
To further complicate matters, broadcasters who want to reach mass audiences
for the minimum investment in infrastructure, hope to offer 3-D programs in a
format different from the 120Hz, full-HD frame sequential method adopted by the
Blu-ray Disc Association, according to Ikuo Matsumoto, executive director at
Fujiwara-Rothchild, a 3-D market research firm based in Tokyo.
Some satellite operators and pay TV companies plan to use a so-called "half-HD"
format, which crams two pictures -- left eye and right eye -- in one frame.
There are various "half-HD" methods, because the information going to each eye
can be arranged in "line by line," "top and bottom," side by side" or "checker
sampling" configurations.
Speculation abounds in Japan over whether Blu-Ray promoters, who are also
leading large-screen TV manufacturers, are willing to offer multi-format 3-D TV
sets. But so far, they're all mum on their 3-D TV strategies.
However, Masayuki Kozuka, general manager of the storage devices business
strategy office at Panasonic Corp., hinted Wednesday that Panasonic 3-D TV will
be adapted to broadcast by allowing "side by side" signals. Such signals will
then convert to frame-sequential by using special circuitry inside TV sets, he
said.
Akira Shimazu, general manager of BD strategy at Sony Corp., agreed that Sony
has similar strategies.
It is not clear what other 3-D technologies will be incorporated into these
companies' 3-D sets, however. But one thing is clear: the adoption of Xpol
stereoscopic 3D technology is "unlikely," indicated Kozuka.
Xpol 3D, developed by Arisawa Manufacturing Co., is an optical device based on
a micro-polarizer. By bonding it to a flat-panel display, such as LCD, users
can view flicker-free 3D stereoscopic content simply by wearing cheaper
polarizer glasses, claimed the Japanese company.
Kozuka, however, complained that the Xpol filter on 3-D TV could limit viewing
angles for consumers.
Market researcher Matsumoto stressed that a multi-format 3-D TV is "ideal" for
broader 3-D market adoption, but integration of a host of new 3-D technologies
could result in a cost-prohibitive product, because of the variety of
intellectual property involved.
Why are they forcing 3-D so hard now?
Participants in Wednesday's panel stressed several key reasons why they must
seize the moment now to push 3-D into the home.
First, it's all about digital.
While acknowledging consumers' lukewarm reaction to the 3-D cinema experience
in the past, Panasonic's Kozuka made it clear that "all digital 3-D
technologies today make a world of difference from analog 3-D experiences we
used to know." He added that all-digital 3-D offers less crosstalk and
dramatically improves the sense of dimension.
Second, Hollywood studios' enthusiasm for 3-D is building at full speed right
now.
There will be at least 4,000 digital cinema theaters worldwide by the end of
this year. Hollywood has discovered that profitability per theater triples for
3-D movies, compared to 2-D.
A host of new 3-D flicks are now in production, including "A Christmas Carol"
by Robert Zemeckis and "Avatar" by James Cameron.
"We want to ride the momentum, not lose it," said Sony's Shimazu.
Third, Blu-ray by itself has done nothing for Hollywood studios' home video
business.
Home video business revenue has been on a slight downward curve over the last
few years, acknowledged Panasonic's Kozuka. In order to reverse this trend, "We
need to give consumers a good, visible reason to buy Blu-ray," he said. That,
in the eyes of Blu-ray promoters, is 3-D. "We've offered interactive Blu-ray
based on Java. We also connected Blu-ray to the Internet," said Kozuka. "But we
think 3-D is the biggest differentiator -- clear to everyone."
Forth, 3-D, if successful, will create whole new opportunities for a range of
product lines including both professional and consumer electronics devices.
Sony's Shimazu claimed that Sony is ready to go 3-D not only with its game
console PlayStation 3 but also its Vaio PCs. Naturally, new 3-D TV sets will
also play a key role in differentiating their hardware, he added.
Both Sony and Matsushita stand to gain by developing professional 3-D video
cameras and other 3-D related services for movie studios and TV production
houses.
While 3-D promoters remained optimistic, the Q&A session at the panel offered a
long list of reasons why 3-D is still a long shot, or could once again, prove a
fad that fizzles in the end.
First problem: subtitles on 3-D content.
How to deal with subtitles, or more importantly closed caption information
which is mandatory in the United States, on a 3-D TV remains an unresolved
issue. One can put a subtitle on a 3-D film, but when an image jumps off the
screen, the subtitle follows. "It all depends on depth of a screen for now, we
don't have a definitive solution," acknowledged Panasonic's Kozuka.
Second, sports and live events broadcast in 3-D.
No videographers and producers have enough experience with shooting live events
in 3-D.
In a live 3-D baseball game, for example, cameras would have to be relocated
from long-familiar 2-D vantage points in order to follow the flight of a 95-mph
fastball from pitcher to batter, and again from batter to wherever the ball
lands. In a football game, a long pass might be impossible to capture in a
single panning shot with one 3-D camera. But if a camera switch is necessary,
the whole play could be lost in transition.
Third, animation in 3-D is fine, but what about others?
So far, Hollywood studios have been able to demonstrate the effective use of
3-D in animation films. "But animation is after all depicting a fantasy world,"
said Reiji Asakura, an author and audio/video critic in Japan, who moderated
the panel.
The real test is in a regular film, shooting the real world. "Even a slight
discrepancy shown in 3-D will turn the audience off, because we all have a
real-life 3-D experience," he noted.
Fourth, what about those cockamamie glasses?
Whether using active shutter glasses or polarizer glasses, the question is:
"Will consumers be asked to wear them all the time?" asked one of the
attendees. The inconvenience factor would be substantial. "Most people today
watch TV while doing something else -- whether eating supper or reading a
newspaper," he pointed out.
Fifth, how much is it?
No vendors have disclosed how much a new 3-D Blu-ray player or a 3-D TV set
will cost -- yet. At a time when the global economy remains weak, it's unclear
who's ready to jump on the newest gadget, except perhaps for the gadget-happy
consumers of Japan.
Sixth, did you say "3-D PC?"
In different parts of the world, PCs continue to gain momentum as a primary
device for entertainment. Sony says it has a plan for 3-D Vaio PCs, but the
company offers no details on how to enable a PC with 3-D.
Seventh, is 3-D safe for your eyes?
The biggest question mark, and a potential deal breaker for 3-D, is -- no
kidding -- optical safety. There is not enough evidence to determine whether
watching 3-D intensely on a game console for hours is harmless. Vendors claim
they will be taking precautions and working on guidelines. But the safety
issue, if mishandled, could send 3-D back to the same drawing board where it
died in 1954.
All materials on this site Copyright (c) 2009 TechInsights, a Division of
United Business Media LLC. All rights reserved.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:
- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at
FreeLists.org
- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word
unsubscribe in the subject line.
Other related posts:
- » [opendtv] 4 reasons for 3-D TV, 7 more for why it's a long shot - Manfredi, Albert E