[opendtv] Re: Analysis: Google-like technologies could revolutionize TV, other media
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 2 May 2004 18:58:33 -0400
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> Now imagine a digital broadcast system that is able to deliver
> customized & personalized advertising messages to specific
> neighborhoods (zoning), specific demographic targets, even specific
> IP addresses.
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http://news.com.com/2009-1025-5201803.html?part=3Ddtx&tag=3Dntop
[ ... ]
Industry research tends to support that prediction. An estimated 75
percent of national advertisers plan to cut spending on TV
commercials by at least 20 percent in the next five years, when
advertisers believe that ad-skipping devices like TiVo will be
widespread, according to Forrester Research.
[ ... ]
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Ads targetted to IP addresses already exist. The public tends to
reject these much more intensely than the more benign ads you
get on TV, on public buses, or on billboards. Devices like proxy
servers, firewalls, and the more recent spam filters are aimed
*specifically* at this type of ad, and Congress too wants to get
in on the act.
It's astonishing to me that any ad research would conclude that
in the future, that's where all the ad money will go. I would
instead predict that this form of ad distribution will quickly
peak and drop off, as defenses against it improve.
Telephone ads were the prime example of backlash against
targetted ads. People object to being interrupted or annoyed
more intrusively as opposed to less intrusively, as this sort
of targetted ad tends to do. Last time I heard the figures, at
least half of US households had subscribed to the do-not-call
list. And that was a short time after the list was enabled.
On the other hand, replacing TV ads with a new technique for
distributing *TV ads* could well work out, but that money
would still go to TV businesses. One such technique is product
placement right in the program. But inserting ads more
intelligently in programs might work too. Of course, the
more surgically targetted, the less a broadcast infrastructure
is economically viable. I think this is *even* true for those
"great ideas" like filling up people's PVRs with ads trickled
in over long periods of time. All you're doing is compensating
for an inefficient (for this targetted ad purpose) distribution
protocol by camping out on people's private property -- i.e.
their disk space. I would bet good money that defenses against
this will soon appear, if they don't already exist.
Bert
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