[opendtv] Analysis: Will HDTV Have a Tipping Point?
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 05:53:01 -0400
Will HDTV Have a Tipping Point?
Sports is driving new sales, but like many new technologies, the
growth of High-Definition TV will be slow but sure. By Phillip Swann
Washington, D.C. (July 15) -- In the early 1960s, NBC decided to
broadcast its hit western, Bonanza, in color. The show was so popular
that many Americans decided to finally dump their black and white
sets so they could watch Hoss and Little Joe in the new format. Many
TV historians believe NBC's decision was a "tipping point" in the
growth of color television.
Today, High-Definition TVs are in less than 10 million homes and
fewer than two million actually have the tuners required to receive
high-def signals. Some industry officials have expressed hope that a
single event such as a Super Bowl will once again persuade Americans
to adopt a new TV technology. Despite dropping prices and the launch
of new high-def networks, sales are not rising dramatically. The
Consumer Electronics Association reports that 3-4 million Digital TVs
may be sold in 2004, which is not bad but hardly indicative of a
cultural phenomenon.
However, based on my analysis of market conditions, consumer
attitudes and historical precedents, I do not believe that HDTV will
ever have a "tipping point" comparable to Bonanza's impact on color
TV. My analysis is that high-def will continue to grow, but at a slow
and steady pace. The technology will pick up steam in the next two
years thanks to those price drops and program additions (and its
incredible picture, of course.) But it's unlikely that more than 20
million homes will be watching HDTV by the year 2007. Future years
will see more steady growth, but nothing that could be called
meteoric.
Why do I say this? Why wouldn't HDTV have its own tipping point?
http://tvpredictions.com/hdtvtipping071504.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:
- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at
FreeLists.org
- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word
unsubscribe in the subject line.
Other related posts:
- » [opendtv] Analysis: Will HDTV Have a Tipping Point?