[opendtv] Re: Apple TV Ensures TV's Future Is Not Just Apps, For One Really Obvious Reason - Forbes

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Tue, 03 Nov 2015 09:43:42 -0500

On Nov 2, 2015, at 9:26 PM, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:


Viewing the old way, what used to be the only way, i.e. viewing linear
streams, is clearly in decline, and I'm hardly the only one saying this. It
already accounts for less than half of TV watching.

I do not dispute that linear TV is in decline, and that that decline is likely
to continue. We can find stats and argue about how much TV is viewed live, but
the fact remains that when live and DVR time shifted linear are combined the
number is around 70%.

That being said, I dropped our DVR service because we do not use it much, and
the sporting events we have been recording are now available on demand from
Watch ESPN.

So yes, I agree that on demand is going to continue to grow, while the 500
linear channel universe is likely to shrink to less than 100 channels; possibly
less than 50. But linear will not go away - it will evolve. And as we see with
CBS, linear will be used to aid in the discovery of shows that will be sold
behind pay walls. The first episode of the new Star Trek will be broadcast on
CBS to help drive the Trekkies to All Access.

Usage of the linear stream for time-shift recording, which also used to be
the only game in town if you didn't want to watch by appointment, is clearly
being replaced by newer schemes too, including in-system VOD or Internet
streaming. I have no idea why Craig feels compelled to dispute these facts.

I did not dispute these facts. I merely recounted the statistics from a recent
survey I posted to the list. As you can see in the previous paragraph, I agree
that the need for a DVR is also in decline - I just dumped ours.

Why are you fighting this, is what I don't understand.

I'm not fighting the actual trends that are happening. I am disagreeing with
your assertions that linear TV will disappear entirely.

Once the new technology has developed enough to duplicate what the older,
less flexible technology was doing, and also provides lots of new features
that the old technology could not provide, OF COURSE the old technology will
be used less and less. This happens time and time again. Having to support
the linear streams eats into system capacity for distributing content the new
way, Craig. That's why the one goes into decline as the other takes over. Why
are you fighting this?

Obviously the cabled MVPDs have plenty of capacity to deliver both linear TV
and broadband. If the number of linear channels starts to shrink they will be
able to recover that spectrum for broadband as well. And most cable systems are
still using a huge chunk of their spectrum for analog channels. They do not
have a spectrum problem. Perhaps the big change in cable for next year will be
to recover the analog spectrum and offer an improved range of on demand
programming.

The DBS systems face a different challenge. DirecTV has already joined up with
AT&T. Dish has spectrum to offer broadband, but it would not surprise me to see
them merge with someone that wants to offer broadband, perhaps Verizon, Sprint,
or Google.

As many times as I've repeated this, Craig, you are still not getting it. Go
back and find a single quote where I claim that all TV content will be on
demand only.

It's not worth the effort, although it would not take long to find at least a
dozen posts where you make this assertion. Even Dan Grimes called you on this
one. Perhaps your position is evolving in the face of reality.

What an absurd argument. Anyone can "know about the show first," and they can
go to a site and watch it on demand. Just because you "know about the show
first" does not mean you MUST use a PVR for time-shift viewing. I do this
*all the time*, Craig. Find out about a new show, find it online.

The point was not absurd Bert. The viewer made a conscious decision to record a
show they know about. No doubt a huge percentage of OTT viewing is shows that
the viewer knew about and chose to view on demand. I've even conceded the point
that the need for a DVR is declining, as people shift to on demand.

But discovery is a major issue. How do you search for something you know
nothing about? The new Apple TV is using Siri to help with search, but she
can't help much with discovery. I read an excellent article about this
yesterday.

Things quickly get bogged down in the current debate about online privacy.
Google tracks just about everything you do and sells this info to advertisers.
They are in a good position to use this data to make recommendations for a
Google TV search/discovery service. Netflix already makes recommendations based
on the data they collect about your viewing habits. Apple is much more
protective of your privacy, which limits their ability to make recommendations,
but they do offer many opt in features at the OS level.

The reason for this drawn out discussion is that linear TV is all about
discovery, and content promotion. This is not going to change.

No, Craig. I'm talking about HBO Now, ShowTime, ESPN. Content, even if for
pay, is moving outside the single-gatekeeper garden walls. But again, I
cannot fathom why you feel the urge to not see the trends.

First I misspoke. Some content like HBO, Showtime and ESPN will remain behind
the pay walls. The only thing that is changing is the nature of the pay walls.

The fact that some services can stand alone versus needing to be part of a paid
MVPD bundle says more about the nature of their content. HBO and Showtime have
always been premium MVPD tiers, that can now be sold as OTT services. ESPN has
always been an anchor for the MVPD extended bundles, and everything they are
doing suggests that this will not change, even as bundles built around ESPN
evolve and move to the Internet.


Most episodic TV shows wind up FOTA or FOTI eventually, after syndication
through paid services like Netflix and Amazon Prime.

Regards
Craig

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