[opendtv] Re: Charter data use "rising rapidly" as cord cutters average 400GB a month
- From: "Craig Birkmaier" <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> (Redacted sender "brewmastercraig" for DMARC)
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 3 May 2019 08:50:10 -0400
Bert is now taking a cue from the mainstream media and feeding us some
revisionist history...
On May 2, 2019, at 9:00 PM, Manfredi (US), Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Monty Solomon posted:
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/05/charter-data-use-rising-rapidly-as-cord-cutters-average-400gb-a-month/
This sounds like scolding people who only use Internet streaming for TV,
because they require more Internet capacity than the luddites. How valid or
relevant is this idea? The main take-away:
No, it sounds like a reality check, although the average of 400 GB per month
seems very low for a home that switches cords and now streams the content they
used to subscribe to via the MVPD bundle.
I do not know of a single person who ONLY uses the Internet for streaming,
Before we switched cords we were using more than 100 GB per month, most of
which had nothing to do with streaming video. Since we switched cords, we are
now using more than 900 GB per month, and have exceeded our 1TB cap several
times.
(Parenthetically, not at all surprising that mobile usage is much lower. A
few years back, the hype was that much or most of TV was going to be viewed
on smartphones. Never sounded credible. And the above stat should also
suggest how much of the mobile 5G hype makes any sense?)
No Bert, that is revisionist history. There was NEVER any hype that everyone
would switch their viewing from the big screen in the family room to their
mobile screens. The hype was about VOD and the ability to binge watch TV shows
on the big screen at home. It was also understood that we were moving from a
world where we had to be hooked up to a physical cord (hybrid fiber/coax, FIOS
or OTA Antenna), to a world where we could access the content we pay for via
all of our screens, anywhere, anytime.
Bert and I argued about TV Everywhere for years, before VMVPD services enabled
consumers to switch cords and stream everything they watch, regardless of the
device.
It’s still difficult to make sense out of all the 5G hype. Clearly it will
provide improved throughput in urban areas, where existing spectrum resources
are stretched thin today. It is equally clear that 5G technologies are going to
be a big factor in allowing the wireless industry to compete with fixed
broadband to feed the big screen in the family room.
What is far less clear is whether 5G will be deployed with the density needed
to enable a highly hyped applications like autonomous vehicles. Perhaps in
urban markets, and maybe even the Interstate highways. Likewise, it is not
clear how 5G is going to enable the Internet of Things; it seems much more
likely that this will evolve along the lines of WiFi, with millions of 5G
devices in homes and businesses.
So, in spite of the ambiguity, comparing median with mean, the message is
that streaming-only customers use more Internet capacity than the average
Internet user, at Charter. Average 400 GB/mo for streamers-only, median in
excess of 200 GB/mo overall. However, not mentioned, these streamers-only
customers don't use any of the legacy MVPD bandwidth. In terms of the PONs
distributed throughout neighborhoods, this legacy TV bandwidth is likely the
vast majority of PON bandwith. Wait! I can already hear the knee-jerk
reactions:
Nothing ambiguous here. But the numbers suggest that many people are
significantly reducing their TV screen time when they CUT the cord, as opposed
to switching cords. Our experience is that data usage increased by 600-800 GB
per month when we switched to a VMVPD service. So the Charter data suggests
that less than half of the cord cutters are replicating their viewing habits
via the Internet. I don’t know what this means exactly; perhaps there is
increased usage of antennas to access broadcast content, or people may just be
watching less TV.
As for PON bandwidth Bert is living in the last century. Most Hybrid Fiber/Coax
networks are now 100% digital, with frequencies from 100 MHz to 500 MHz being
used for the traditional video channels in an MVPD bundle. It is important to
note that most of these system were deployed as 700 MHz systems at the end of
the 20th Century; most of these systems have been upgraded to 1GHz, using
Docsis 3.1. The additional throughput of these systems is what has enabled
Gigabit service to the home, and allowed the average usage to increase to 400
GB/month amoung Charter subscribers who have cut the cord.
Sure, much of the legacy TV service bandwidth is used by broadcast streams,
which won't demand a lot of two-way packet switching service through the ISP
network, nor edge server capacity. But what about the on-demand service used
by legacy MVPD subscribers? That does require edge servers and unicast
streams. Whatever scheme is used for that, it could instead go to supplement
the Internet capacity of the system. For several years now, the majority of
all TV watching is NOT linear/live. It is on demand. So my guess is, legacy
MVPD users are using up a substantial amount of system capacity which could
go to Internet use, including in-system DVR capacity. Use of home PVRs, last
I've seen reported, is on the decline.
It’s called Docsis Bert. And the cable guys have been using it for nearly two
decades to support their local/regional VOD services. I mention regional, as
many MVPDs use regional servers for VOD.
And Bert is wrong about the mix of live versus On Demand. Ericson published a
report in 2017 stating that we would reach the 50/50 point in 2020. Problem is
that with the availability of VMVPD services, streaming of linear programming
has increased dramatically; during the formative years of streaming almost
everything was VOD. Now it is quite common to watch linear and live programming
via a streaming service.
In short, what people SHOULD be wondering is, what fraction of Charter's
system capacity, overall, is still dedicated to legacy MVPD service?
My educated guess is 40% digital linear TV channels, 10% upstream data, 50%
downstream data.
The reality is, IP is becoming, or has already become, the preferred protocol
for all sorts of services. Should be no surprise that TV viewing is included.
It will make more sense, over time, to give Internet service top billing.
People are cutting the cord for various reasons, and those reasons are not
going away.
Most people are SWITCHING cords, not cutting them Bert. There are three major
takeaways here:
1. TV Entertainment/news, are no longer limited to physical cords including OTA
antennas. People are paying more than ever for their TV fixes, and they are
consuming what they pay for via multiple devices both in the home/office, and
when mobile.
2. While VOD and time shifted viewing have grown dramatically, live linear TV -
including premieres of popular shows like Game of Thrones - still produce very
large audiences for both subscription and ad supported services.
3. Consumers and entrepreneurs are now able to produce their own VOD
programming (podcasts), and live streams via services like Livestream and
Facebook’s livestream services.
In other words, the TV content landscape continues to evolve, as the underlying
distribution technology evolves.
Regards
Craig
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