[opendtv] Re: Competition
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 9 Aug 2015 08:21:43 -0400
On Aug 8, 2015, at 7:03 PM, Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Imagine a universe in which we were still constrained to just one-way
broadcast. How would you browse the web, Craig? You'd have to wait forever
for your particular page or pages to come around on some carousel. Imagine
you are just one of, say 100,000 people subscribing to that broadcast
network, in your market. What a crazy way to get information out, right? It's
far more efficient, and you can get a whole lot more information out, if you
store it one time, on many many distributed servers, for anyone to retrieve
at any time.
How absurd.
That world never existed Bert. You are trying to force fit everything into one
box to make an absurd point.
Before TV broadcasting, and radio for that matter, we had media. I spoke you
could call the town crier on the public square a broadcast medium, but with the
printing press we moved into a random access medium with books, newspapers and
eventually magazines. We had theaters where people could go to view a movie of
their choice.
And for the past three decades we have had MANY choices when it comes to
accessing entertainment other than broadcasting. The only significant change
with Internet streaming is convenience - we can access huge libraries of TV and
movie content without having to drive to a store or RedBox kiosk.
What any of this has to do with the future viability of streaming programming,
pre-produced or live, escapes me. Programming linear channels is a business
model. Yes it has competition, but that does not mean that it will simply
disappear. If anything it it now much easier to stream live content.
What makes you think this has to be different for TV content? It does not.
Because people who create content know they can make money from this content in
multiple ways. Why would the stop programming linear networks when this is the
way most TV is consumed and most of the money is made? I'm not saying that
this will always be the case - at some point on demand access to TV content
will likely attract a larger audience than the linear networks. But that does
not mean the linear networks will disappear.
Once again you are trying to force fit your vision of the future into a box.
That's not the way things work.
But to extrapolate that shift into one where EVERYTHING is accessed on
demand
is absurd
The only thing "absurd" is your legacy thinking. For some reason, you can't
wrap your head around the fact that there is nothing unique about TV content.
You cannot seem to appreciate the similarities with most of what's already
ion the web.
This is not legacy thinking Bert. It is a business model that works, with a
huge oligopoly behind it that will use every available means to distribute its
content. And that industry will continue to use linear networks to distribute
and promote that content.
And as far as what's on the web, who cares. People are attempting to do all
kinds of things with web sites - some work and are very successful. Some don't.
You made the absurd claim that IP can guarantee some sort of QoS, implying
that MPEG-2 TS broadcast can't.
That was not the point I was making Bert. Both can guarantee QOS in the proper
environment. I can take a MPEG-TS stream and packetize it to move it across the
web; but I may lose packets or have congestion delays. If I dedicate a channel
on a cable or DBS system to a linear stream I can guarantee the bandwidth to
deliver those bits, whether the transport is MPEG TS or IP packets.
The point I was trying to make is that the portion of a proprietary network
that is dedicated to a linear streaming MVPD service is not the Internet, and
it is not subject to net neutrality rules. Thus existing facilities based MVPDs
can continue to offer these linear streams with QOS guarantees even if they
move to IP transport. But the portion of the proprietary network dedicated to
broadband service cannot offer the same guarantees; the MVPD can not advantage
streams from some services over others like they can in their proprietary
bandwidth.
You made an absurd claim that IP allowed VOD, implying that MPEG-TS can't.
Before making these nonsensical claims, you need to inform yourself.
I made no such claim.
And why did you feel the need to make that "important point," when I have
made that same point time and time again?
When?
You seem to believe that only the Internet will exist in the future, and it
will be regulated in accordance with whatever the FCC decided net neutrality
means.
Once again, since these things seem to require constant repetition, use of IP
allows a lot more flexibility than having that one single gatekeeper at the
MVPD head-end. IP creates a two-way network. Multiple sources of TV (or
other) content now compete, over the network, as long as the broadband pipe
is strictly neutral.
So? Multiple sources for TV content have been competing for more than three
decades. All we have eliminated is the need to leave our home to go buy or rent
the bits. And the ability to buy or rent programs via the Internet existed long
before OTT services came into existence - it was just painfully slowly download
content with a dial up modem or the early broadband networks.
Of course you CAN use IP and still remain a local monopoly of content. So
what? IP allows you to get beyond that old model, and people have come to
embrace it.
As they embraced VHS, DVD, and laserdiscs...
This means that luddites in the TV business will not survive, Craig. You keep
trying to press this notion that the old way must persist. Do you still use
the stagecoach, Craig? Are you going to utter a banality, like stagecoach
service will coexist with cars, in the future?
That is your opinion. Your analogy has no basis in reality. The Internet may
well replace proprietary networks at some point in the future. But it is just
as capable of supporting linear networks offered in MVPD bundles as it is SVOD
bundles, or pay per view. All will continue to exist.
So, just more legacy thinking, Craig. There are any number of businesses that
use the automatic deduction model, to spare the customer from having to
manually pay those monthly bills. The idea that the single cable bill is any
kind of advantage anymore is just, you know, legacy thinking. Besides which,
there could very easily be OTT sites that do offer that one-stop shopping,
for people who want something other than the few choices their MVPD offers.
You missed it as usual. You did not address the benefits of bundling multiple
services, marketing and other aspects of what real businesses do.
A glimmer of hope of understanding from Craig? Time *is telling*. Once again,
even the old MVPD stalwart ESPN has eliminated geographic restrictions.
Yup. They did that on June 17, 1994 when DirecTV started offering a national
DBS service.
So has HBO. And plenty of others either have or are about to, like the other
movie channels.
They have not eliminated the geographic services. They have ADDED a national
service accessible via the Internet. The vast majority of their customers still
use the linear streaming service AND the TVE apps that allow on demand access
to their content.
No, Craig. What you should have said is, EVEN IN THE ABSENCE of such a
(VMVPD) rule, Dish was perfectly capable of getting the rights to deliver
ESPN and other previously walled-in content, WITHOUT geographic restrictions,
and WITHOUT needing to pay these channels the same welfare checks they get on
the legacy model.
Not true.
Dish has delivered this content without geographic restrictions since March of
1996. And they are paying the channels in the Sling bundle the same welfare
checks (possibly more) as they do with the Dish DBS bundles.
And without having to whine about some new FCC designation "VMVPD."
Again, time will tell. I strongly suspect that the reason Sling is not offering
the broadcast networks is that they are waiting to see what the FCC requires.
The rumors that Apple is negotiating to carry all local broadcast affiliates is
rather telling. I expect that the same protections broadcasters now enjoy with
cable, Fios and DBS services will be extended to the Internet.
Regards
Craig
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