[opendtv] Re: How to Watch the Oscars Online, and Why You Probably Can't

From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 1 Mar 2015 08:27:39 -0500
On Feb 28, 2015, at 7:28 PM, Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxxx> 
wrote:
> 
> As usual, Craig's distinctions that make no difference. You yourself recently 
> posted the article about Comcast TVE offering more content than others, 
> Craig. Tell me again how TVE is not modeled after a monopoly pipe. Tell me my 
> you should be prevented from dropping Cox and subscribing to Comcast TVE, 
> and/or any other OTT offering.

Yup. I am not saying I should be prevented from subscribing to the Comcast 
Xfinity TV Go app. That is between Comcast and the content owners that are 
licensing the content that Comcast hosts as part of the Xfinity service. 

The article I posted caused part of this misguided discussion, calling Xfinity 
TV Go a TV Everywhere service. It is a separate VOD service hosted by Comcast; 
not the TVE sites I access via my Cox subscription. But your point is valid. 
Why should I not be allowed to subscribe to Comcast Xfinity TV Go?

The answer is franchise agreements and licensing agreements. It is worth noting 
that Comcast plays on both sides of the fence as they own NBC, and license NBC 
content to Comcast and other MVPD systems.

But this does raise some questions about the physical infrastructure to support 
TV Everywhere, and how this could be impacted by the new FCC Net Neutrality 
regulations. Let's skip forward a few years to the point in time where the 
facilities based linear streaming infrastructure of the local monopoly pipes is 
no longer needed. To the point where the entire cable, or fiber is used 
exclusively for ISP service, and all TV content is delivered as IP packets via 
the Internet.

Can Bert and I at least agree that this will happen, sometime in the next 
decade or two? Probably sooner rather than later.

I subscribe to Netflix. 

Where are the servers that host the bits I consume? 

And how do these bits get to my local Cox head end, where they are routed to my 
home over the last mile operated by Cox.

We know that Netflix hosts the bits somewhere, and at one time they used CDN's 
like Akamai, then open transit services like Cogent to connect to ISPs like 
Comcast. We know that Comcast was trying to impose access fees on the CDNs and 
open transit services because of the high volumes of Netflix traffic, which 
were very asymmetrical compared to other Internet traffic covered by peering 
agreements.

How do we know all this? From this article drawn from the Netflix submission to 
the FCC in the net neutrality proceeding.

The inside story of how Netflix came to pay Comcast for internet traffic – 
Quartz

http://qz.com/256586/the-inside-story-of-how-netflix-came-to-pay-comcast-for-internet-traffic/

This article also tells us how Netflix was transitioning the infrastructure to 
reach subscribers, by deploying its own CDN network, and deploying edge 
servers. The full details of The new Infrastructure being used by Netflix can 
be found here:

https://openconnect.itp.netflix.com/deliveryOptions/index.html

These pages answer my questions above.

For small ISPs that have peak Netflix traffic loads below 5Gbps, they recommend 
connection to one of the Netflix peering sites identified in the documents at 
the site above. For ISPs with peak loads above 5Gbps they recommend the ISP 
become an edge provider, installing a Netflix Open Connect Appliance - an edge 
server that Netflix updates during off peak traffic hours.

This Ars Technica article provides another look at what Netflix is doing.

http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2014/05/netflixs-many-pronged-plan-to-eliminate-video-playback-problems/

So how does this relate to Bert's question about buying TV Everywhere service 
from Comcast.

The simple answer is that Comcast would need to locate an edge server at my Cox 
head end if the traffic overwhelmed a peering interconnection service.

So Bert, as much as you love to talk about being able to buy stuff from Amazon, 
or Comcast, or any fill in the blank service that is connected to the Internet, 
there is still a very strong geographic component of the interconnections 
required, as as we move to video over IP, local edge servers are going to be 
critical to avoid congestion and degradation of service. 

Unfortunately, the FCC has just injected itself into this thorny mess. We will 
now have a government regulator in the middle of all of these interconnection 
issues, rather than relying on the competitive marketplace to work them out. It 
was the competitive marketplace that built the commercial Internet we all use, 
and with few exceptions it worked without government intervention. 

Forbearance just means the FCC had no immediate plans to regulate and tax all 
of this. History tells us that once they get their nose under the tent it won't 
take long for the government to regulate and tax it.

> Or, do you really not get that anyone can buy merchandise from Amazon, Craig? 
> Why should TV content be any different, when it's online?

Does Amazon ship everything from one central warehouse Bert?

Obviously no. They are building a regional distribution center here in Florida 
at this very moment.

Online TV content may originate from one or a few server farms, but it will 
ultimately travel over interconnection pipe to local edge servers at our ISPs. 
So buying my TVE service from Comcast becomes an oxymoron - a geographically 
limited facilities based MVPD service that would need to deploy servers at 
other geographically based competitors to sell me a reliable internet based 
service.
> 
> Yes, IN THE PAST, TV content was too voluminous, compared to ISP net 
> capacity, to be credibly transmitted over the Internet to households. Now 
> that is no longer the case. That excuse doesn't work much anymore.

Sounds good until you look under the hood at how this works. We end one set of 
geographic constraints, only to replace them with another set of geographic 
constraints. Do once again I will ask:

When will YOU be able to buy IPS service from Comcast or Cox?
> 
> 
>> Why someone would subscribe to multiple MVPD services is a meaningless issue.
> 
> Craig seems to cherish making me belabor the obvious. The point is, Craig, 
> that no one prevents you from doing business with any other web-based 
> business, right? You are not FORCED to deal with Amazon, if you want to buy a 
> book, but no one is preventing it. Get it?

No.

The government stepped in to protect Amazon's e-book monopoly. Rather than 
going after the monopolist, they brought an Anti Trust case against Apple, 
because they tried to use a perfectly legal contractual relationship to 
challenge the monopolist. Hopefully the appeals courts will undo this absurd 
decision, but there are no guarantees here. And now that the FCC is trying to 
get into the business of regulating how the Internet works, and what it will 
cost in terms of new taxes and cost shifting, I am very concerned that the 
government will pick more "winners and losers."

>> Sling TV is aimed at cord cutters and cord never's, primarily the 
>> Millennials. 
>> And it offers many networks that appeal to Millennials, not just sports.
> 
> As of now, Sling TV offers a total of 12 channels, right?

Nope! With the recent announcement I posted the number is now above 15, and the 
service is not complete yet.

> The monthly fee is $20. ESPN asks for more than $6 from other MVPDs, when 
> it's in a bundle that creates a huge amount of fake demand for ESPN (please 
> don't force me to belabor this obvious point too). So you can expect ESPN to 
> be asking for quite a bit more than $6 from Sling TV.

No. They are part of a bundle of channels from Disney, and the subscriber fees 
cannot be much higher than what Disney charges other MVPD services, given the 
$20 price point for the Sling bundle. 
> 
> I'd say, Sling TV is definitely geared to sports fans, and I'm not the only 
> one saying this. It was also mentioned in one of the articles posted when 
> Sling was first announced.
You can say whatever you want Bert. If you really believe this, then the 
Millennials must be pretty stupid. Instead of paying big buck for a fat MVPD 
bundle that sends money to ESPN, even if you don't want ESPN, you can spend $20 
for a slim bundle, and send $14 to other networks you don't watch.

You really are a piece of work...
> 
> Hey Craig, how many LTE transmitters and towers are needed, to cover a TV 
> market of 40 mile radius, with almost the same spectral efficiency as ATSC? 
> The answer is just one number. No need for many words.

OK Mr. science, what is the number? And please ALSO tell us what market this is 
for and what the boundary conditions are, as every market presents both in 
market geographic challenges AND multiple market-into-market interference 
challenges.


Regards
Craig 
 
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[opendtv] Re: How to Watch the Oscars Online, and Why You Probably Can't

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