[opendtv] Re: TV Technology: Netflix Passing U.S. Cable Visualized
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2017 21:35:44 -0400
What a heaping pile of crap!
So Netflix now has more U.S. subscriibers than 95% of cable subscriibers.
Never mind that the vast majority of those Netflix subscriibers ALSO subscriibe
to a MVPD service; if not cable, then a DBS or FTTH service.
This paragraph should be a case study for journalism students; I'll debunk each
sentence separately:
While cable-only represents around 50 percent of the U.S. pay-TV market as a
whole, it is by far the most popular way of getting pay-TV in the country.
How can something be the most popular when in reality it does not come close to
50% of the U.S. pay-TV market"
- Cable has just over half of the market for the bundles of live TV networks
offered by cable, DBS, FTTH, and the new VMVPD services. (>80 million total);
- Premium movie channels- HBO, Showtime, Starz - reach more than 70 million
homes;
- Hulu has more than 12 million paid subscribers;
- Amazon Prime has more than 66 million subscribers.
- There is a huge market for video downloads (sales and rentals) from iTunes,
Amazon and Google and MVPD PPV services.
- There is still a large market for sales of packaged media and rental of these
programs via services like RedBox.
Clearly cable IS NOT the most popular way of getting pay TV in the country.
For Netflix to surpass cable is a big step in becoming the top source of home
entertainment.
Netflix is a very popular service, but to say it is becoming the top source of
home entertainment is ABSURD! It is equally absurd to believe that any one pay
TV service is going to become the top source of entertainment, especially a
service that has a limited amount of original content and a ton of old library
content.
Netflix reached that goal mainly by growing its own subscriber base rather
than by cord-cutting.
Not sure what goal they reached (77 million subscribers or the top source of
home entertainment - hope its the former). At least they are honest that this
had little to do with cord cutting. Netflix grew rapidly as a pay TV service
that COMPLEMENTS the MVPD bundles that the vast majority of U.S. Homes still
subscribe to.
Major cable providers only lost 4 million subscribers since Q1 2012 – Netflix
added 27 million.
And the point is?
The only reasoned conclusion is that millions of U.S. homes decided to spend an
extra $8-9/mo for TV entertainment.
Then Bert piles on...
And all of this without "live channels," no less.
It would be rather absurd to add a second pay TV subscription that duplicates
the one you already subscribe to. Netflix is complementary to an MVPD bundle.
Or at least it was...
The reality is that MVPD bundles are now able to provide access to a very large
percentage of the library content available from Netflix. TV Everywhere
provides access to the libraries of most popular MVPD networks. The new VMVPD
services offer even larger libraries. Hulu has added live TV to their
traditional catch-up and library service.
The TV Tech article does not tell the real story about where Netflix is headed.
It is rapidly becoming another HBO or Showtime. The content congloms are
already limiting new deals with Netflix; they have no reason to keep Netflix
viable now that Netflix is competitive with them in original content and they
can go direct with their library content via services like Hulu
The graphic shows the steady rise in Netflix subscribers and the steady
decline in *total* subscribers, for cable systems covering 95% of US cable
subscribers. So, quite a significant figure, right?
Not really. See above.
The question then is, why would anyone expect legacy cable MVPDs to continue
to restrict themselves politely to just their existing neighborhoods?
LImitations on licensing and franchise territories.
Let the "other guy" be so polite. I'll create an OTT site available
nationwide, to compete with these unrestricted OTT services. That would be
the natural response.
If they can get the congloms to license them the content to distribute
everywhere, no problem.
But there may be a limit to how many competitors can compete for our business:
Cable MVPDs
DBS MVPDs
FTTH MVPDs
Sling TV
Sony Play Station Vue
DIrecTV Now
Hulu Live
Municipal broadband/TV systems
Regards
Craig
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