I can't figure out the persistent hype about this stuff. It seems to me that
local broadcasters feel unable to get a meaningful presence on the Internet,
without this let's-pretend-it's-IP one-way broadcast channel. Not sure why that
should be.
If the TV networks won't allow local broadcasters to get on the Internet in a
useful way, and if the TV broadcasters can't create, on their own, with their
own Internet servers, other revenue streams unrelated to TV, then I frankly
can't see that ATSC 3.0 will make a difference. For example:
"However, NextGen TV corrects shortcomings local TV has as an advertising
platform relative to competitors, the forecast pointed out. Interactivity,
addressability, dynamic ad insertion, mobile, attribution and first-party data
support are all benefits NextGen TV offers that strengthen local TV."
But it's not ATSC 3.0 that solves these shortcomings. It is having the
broadcast networks, and potentially also the broadcast stations, on the actual
Internet. Which can be done any old time they please. The ATSC 3.0 broadcast
channel won't give interactivity, useful addressability, dynamic ad insertion.
At best, the broadcast stream can be better forced into some kind of
synchronism, with all the new Internet-dependent, bells and whistles. Or, just
stream over the Internet, and keep the one-way broadcast stream there for cord
cutters who don't want to stream. All of those features they keep touting are
available today, from TV networks, on the Internet.
"NextGen TV represents an historically significant thrust by local TV
broadcasters to establish themselves as an internet-native, mobile first,
advanced TV capable distribution platform," said Ducey.
I'd say instead, that historically significant thrust started happening, big
time, in 2006. Having IP overhead on the broadcast channel, as an option for
the also-available MPEG-2 TS overhead, does not make the one-way broadcast
channel "the Internet." And of course, mobility depends mostly on what the cell
companies will allow. Do we have, say, FM and HD radios built into smartphones?
No. But radio and TV stations can be received, using Internet streaming, with
mobile devices. Convince the cell companies to do otherwise. Hasn't worked so
far.
Bert
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https://www.tvtechnology.com/atsc3/nextgen-tv-could-fuel-50-local-tv-revenue-growth-over-10-years-says-bia
NextGen TV Could Fuel 50% Local TV Revenue Growth Over 10 Years, Says BIA
Even so, traditional advertising and retrans fees will remain significant
revenue sources.
Phil Kurz Jan 17, 2020
CHANTILLY, Va.-NextGen TV offers clear upsides for local TV stations, which
have the potential to grow revenue 50% over the next 10 years as they deploy
ATSC 3.0, says a new BIA forecast.
The outlook for 3.0, presented Jan. 16 at SMPTE Washington, D.C., Chapter's
NextGen TV Summit, finds that with advanced TV the compounded annual growth
rate for local broadcasters has the potential to reach 8%, compared to a 3.8%
CAGR baseline.
"While a number of questions remain, there are clear upside scenarios for local
TV groups investing in NextGen TV," said BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey.
"Consumer side revenue business models will take longer to scale, but business
and government business models can scale much faster."
BIA pointed out that the transition to NextGen TV for broadcasters is voluntary
and the rollout of ATSC 3.0 will be done on a market-by-market basis. Thus,
consumer-based business models will have a longer adoption curve.
However, NextGen TV corrects shortcomings local TV has as an advertising
platform relative to competitors, the forecast pointed out. Interactivity,
addressability, dynamic ad insertion, mobile, attribution and first-party data
support are all benefits NextGen TV offers that strengthen local TV.
BIA's Mark Fratrik (L) and Rick Ducey presented their findings at yesterday's
NextGen TV Summit sponsored by SMPTE.
While NextGen TV offers new revenue sources, commercials and retrans will
continue to be important revenue sources, said BIA Senior Vice President and
Chief Economist Mark Fratrik.
"Even with the new capabilities NextGen TV provides, traditional linear TV
advertising and retransmission will continue to account for the lion's share of
revenues throughout the 2020s," he said.
Still, NextGen TV will prove to be an important initiative. "NextGen TV
represents an historically significant thrust by local TV broadcasters to
establish themselves as an internet-native, mobile first, advanced TV capable
distribution platform," said Ducey.
To download the forecast visit the BIA Advisory Services website.
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