[opendtv] Re: When_TV_Ads_Go_Subliminal?
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 18 May 2016 11:11:32 -0400
On May 17, 2016, at 10:58 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
Yet it looks like customers are coming back to linear TV with
traditional ads.
LOL. This is Craig letting his imagination run wild again, pretending that
his ideas are those expressed in the article. Your comment makes no sense at
all, in the context of this article. Pay attention to this all-important
quote, from the article, that got by you:
"Consumers have over the past several years been migrating away from linear
television, and we need to acknowledge that."
Linear TV is going fast, Craig, and this has been well established. The
article is not about linear TV. Ad-supported TV is not going away, and I've
made this point to Craig multiple times. TV over the Internet, just like the
very vast majority of content on the Internet, will most certainly continue
to be supported by ads. The model fits perfectly over the Internet medium.
One more comment about this Bert.
Clearly consumers are taking advantage of VOD rather than making appointments
to watch their favorite TV shows. This is little more than extension of the
earlier trend to record programs on a DVR for viewing when convenient. It is
especially helpful for those who do not have a DVR, or if they did not record
something then decide to watch. But in the end, this is little more that time
shifting - the viewer is still watching the programming from the live linear
channels. Dittos for Netflix and Amazon Prime; most of this content is just the
library programs that filled up all of those MVPD rerun channels that nobody
watches…
This article does a good job of analyzing the real story:
http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/after-streaming-kills-cable-where-will-content-come-148961
<
http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/after-streaming-kills-cable-where-will-content-come-148961>
After Streaming Kills Cable, Where Will the Content Come From?
To echo a familiar refrain, consumers are mad as hell and not about to take it
from cable companies anymore! Networks are dinosaurs who think the big asteroid
in the sky called Netflix
<applewebdata://9B4750CE-E4C9-4B5C-9082-EB079DB63CCC/news/technology/original-series-help-netflix-turn-tidy-profit-148836>
is their god, but it’s coming to kill them all! The next Walking Dead is
already on YouTube!
But here’s the reality: Netflix is not going to kill cable. Nor is Amazon Prime
<applewebdata://9B4750CE-E4C9-4B5C-9082-EB079DB63CCC/news/technology/amazon-picks-bibliophilic-social-platform-goodreads-148208>.
Nor is the mythical Apple TV. Because if they do, they will essentially be
sawing off the limb on which they have built their businesses: content funded
by the very cable model against which they offer an alluring alternative. And
wow, is it ever funded—programming is expensive, as you may have heard.
Cord cutting may be on the rise, but it’s nowhere near the level of an
existential threat to the cable industry, despite the hype. Nielsen’s
fourth-quarter cross-platform report counted more than 5 million “zero-TV”
households in 2012, up from just over 2 million as recently as 2007. Those are
small numbers given the 110 million TV household universe.
That said, cable operators (or MVPDs, for multichannel video programming
distributors) and the networks they carry are dragging each other kicking and
screaming toward the rich seam of multiplatform video distribution that Netflix
and Amazon are already mining as fast as they can. To be sure, there’s a new
economic model for content coming, but it’s big enough to allow all parties to
survive, perhaps even thrive.
Here’s how: The linear programmer’s dream for Netflix
<applewebdata://9B4750CE-E4C9-4B5C-9082-EB079DB63CCC/news/technology/netflix-snaps-wachowskis-sci-fi-series-148180>
and its ilk has always been that it becomes a back end—a kind of syndication
market for cable programming, which until now has simply vanished into the
ether after nominal DVD sales. That would enable programmers to keep their
precious dual-revenue stream model (advertising and subscriber fees) with this
third additive option, too.
If, as the doomsayers predict, consumers abandon cable en masse, the ecosystem
will become so damaged that high-profile programming becomes impossible to
fund. And no company with a stake in the entertainment business wants to
contemplate that kind of disaster.
A MUTUAL NEED
There are no ratings numbers for Netflix, but its relationship with cable is
definitely symbiotic. “New viewers are finding [our] shows on a digital
service, catching up on prior seasons and then tuning into AMC for new seasons
in greater numbers, many for the first time,” Josh Sapan, president and CEO of
AMC Networks, told investors last May after the net’s flagship shows The
Walking Dead <
http://ww.amctv.com/shows/the-walking-dead>and Mad Men
<
http://www.amctv.com/shows/mad-men> each saw huge ratings gains in the wake of
the decision to stream previous seasons on Netflix. Presumably, that means
Netflix viewers would be pretty upset if they couldn’t watch Walking Dead a
season late, too.
The feeling of mutual need is reciprocal. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings last week
tipped his hat to the industry on which his business is feeding. Though
Hastings calls the linear TV model “ripe for replacement” in an 11-page
manifesto, even he doesn’t think Netflix will be the only game in town. “TV
Everywhere will provide a smooth economic transition for existing networks,” he
predicts. “The same consumer who today finds it worthwhile to pay for a linear
TV package will likely pay for a ‘linear plus apps’ package.”
So there you have it Bert. Assured mutual survival.
How the bundled bits are delivered is just another chapter in the history of Tv
distribution. Obviously Netflix is doing well selling bundles of TV programs
without commercials via the Internet.
Extremely successful businesses like live linear TV do not die.
They evolve.
Regards
Craig
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