unsubscribe
On Wednesday, May 18, 2016 11:11 AM, Craig Birkmaier
<brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On May 17, 2016, at 10:58 PM, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
Yet it looks like customers are coming back to linear TV with
traditional ads.
LOL. This is Craig letting his imagination run wild again, pretending that his
ideas are those expressed in the article. Your comment makes no sense at all,
in the context of this article. Pay attention to this all-important quote, from
the article, that got by you:
"Consumers have over the past several years been migrating away from linear
television, and we need to acknowledge that."
Linear TV is going fast, Craig, and this has been well established. The article
is not about linear TV. Ad-supported TV is not going away, and I've made this
point to Craig multiple times. TV over the Internet, just like the very vast
majority of content on the Internet, will most certainly continue to be
supported by ads. The model fits perfectly over the Internet medium.
One more comment about this Bert.
Clearly consumers are taking advantage of VOD rather than making appointments
to watch their favorite TV shows. This is little more than extension of the
earlier trend to record programs on a DVR for viewing when convenient. It is
especially helpful for those who do not have a DVR, or if they did not record
something then decide to watch. But in the end, this is little more that time
shifting - the viewer is still watching the programming from the live linear
channels. Dittos for Netflix and Amazon Prime; most of this content is just the
library programs that filled up all of those MVPD rerun channels that nobody
watches…
This article does a good job of analyzing the real story:
http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/after-streaming-kills-cable-where-will-content-come-148961
After Streaming Kills Cable, Where Will the Content Come From?
To echo a familiar refrain, consumers are mad as hell and not about to take it
from cable companies anymore! Networks are dinosaurs who think the big asteroid
in the sky called Netflix is their god, but it’s coming to kill them all! The
next Walking Dead is already on YouTube!But here’s the reality: Netflix is not
going to kill cable. Nor is Amazon Prime. Nor is the mythical Apple TV. Because
if they do, they will essentially be sawing off the limb on which they have
built their businesses: content funded by the very cable model against which
they offer an alluring alternative. And wow, is it ever funded—programming is
expensive, as you may have heard.Cord cutting may be on the rise, but it’s
nowhere near the level of an existential threat to the cable industry, despite
the hype. Nielsen’s fourth-quarter cross-platform report counted more than 5
million “zero-TV” households in 2012, up from just over 2 million as recently
as 2007. Those are small numbers given the 110 million TV household
universe.That said, cable operators (or MVPDs, for multichannel video
programming distributors) and the networks they carry are dragging each other
kicking and screaming toward the rich seam of multiplatform video distribution
that Netflix and Amazon are already mining as fast as they can. To be sure,
there’s a new economic model for content coming, but it’s big enough to allow
all parties to survive, perhaps even thrive.Here’s how: The linear programmer’s
dream for Netflix and its ilk has always been that it becomes a back end—a kind
of syndication market for cable programming, which until now has simply
vanished into the ether after nominal DVD sales. That would enable programmers
to keep their precious dual-revenue stream model (advertising and subscriber
fees) with this third additive option, too.If, as the doomsayers predict,
consumers abandon cable en masse, the ecosystem will become so damaged that
high-profile programming becomes impossible to fund. And no company with a
stake in the entertainment business wants to contemplate that kind of
disaster.A MUTUAL NEEDThere are no ratings numbers for Netflix, but its
relationship with cable is definitely symbiotic. “New viewers are finding [our]
shows on a digital service, catching up on prior seasons and then tuning into
AMC for new seasons in greater numbers, many for the first time,” Josh Sapan,
president and CEO of AMC Networks, told investors last May after the net’s
flagship shows The Walking Dead and Mad Men each saw huge ratings gains in the
wake of the decision to stream previous seasons on Netflix. Presumably, that
means Netflix viewers would be pretty upset if they couldn’t watch Walking Dead
a season late, too.The feeling of mutual need is reciprocal. Netflix CEO Reed
Hastings last week tipped his hat to the industry on which his business is
feeding. Though Hastings calls the linear TV model “ripe for replacement” in an
11-page manifesto, even he doesn’t think Netflix will be the only game in town.
“TV Everywhere will provide a smooth economic transition for existing
networks,” he predicts. “The same consumer who today finds it worthwhile to pay
for a linear TV package will likely pay for a ‘linear plus apps’ package.”
So there you have it Bert. Assured mutual survival.
How the bundled bits are delivered is just another chapter in the history of Tv
distribution. Obviously Netflix is doing well selling bundles of TV programs
without commercials via the Internet.
Extremely successful businesses like live linear TV do not die.
They evolve.
RegardsCraig