[AR] Re: Re spacex falcon 9 landing
- From: "Findley, Jeff" <jeff.findley@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "'arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx'" <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 24 Dec 2015 14:42:12 +0000
On Wednesday, December 23, 2015 3:09 PM Derek Lyons wrote:
Quoted for truth. "Everyone" expected him to stick the first barge landing.
And the second. And the third.
Yet the times he didn't and their predictions were wrong have already gone
down the memory hole.
We’re skirting very close to “fanboy bashing”, which I’ve seen on enough
websites over the years. “The other side” has called Musk’s Falcon 9 a “hobby
rocket”, criticized the “low performance” of the Merlin engines, and said that
reuse would never happen (because smarter minds than his have not been able to
do it yet, so it must not be possible). So, all of those predictions have also
“gone down the memory hole”.
As Bill correctly points out, there's good reason for healthy skepticism.
(Not the least of which is the track
record of a very complicated and "sporty" landing sequence.)
While true, Musk also has a mind for the future. Let’s draw some parallels
with Tesla...
The first Tesla was an extremely impractical car, but you have to start
somewhere (Falcon 1). The second Tesla was a quite impressive car, but still
far too expensive for most people to afford at about $100k (Falcon 9 and Falcon
Heavy). Eventually, Musk plans on selling an “affordable” car, but it requires
building the biggest battery factory on the planet before he can even think
about starting production (LOX/methane fully reusable launch vehicle).
Say what you will about Musk, but he thinks big, and he thinks very long term.
Jeff
--
Jeffrey Findley
Product Eng
Siemens Industry Sector
Siemens Product Lifecycle Management Software Inc.
2000 Eastman Drive
Milford, OH 45150 United States
Tel. :+1 (513) 576-5606
Fax :+1 (513) 576-2840
jeff.findley@xxxxxxxxxxx <jeff.findley@xxxxxxxxxxx%20>
www.siemens.com/plm
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [
mailto:arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
Behalf Of Derek Lyons
Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2015 3:09 PM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AR] Re: Re spacex falcon 9 landing
On Dec 23, 2015 11:44 AM, "William Claybaugh"
<wclaybaugh2@xxxxxxxxx<
mailto:wclaybaugh2@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Take care; there is a difference between doubt and >professional caution: I'm
inclined to the view that >competent engineers, given good specs, will at
least >meet their goals. Thus it seems likely that Falcon 9 will >be easier
to refurbish than previous examples >of reusable hardware. But in addition to
being designed >for reuse it was also designed for very low cost as an
expendable. It is worth considering whether the total >cost of reuse is
going to be lower than the intentional-->and demonstrated--low cost of
expending. That is not >doubt, that is a subject matter expert thinking
carefully >bout the the details.
Just sayin'
Bill
Quoted for truth. "Everyone" expected him to stick the first barge landing.
And the second. And the third. Yet the times he didn't and their predictions
were wrong have already gone down the memory hole.
As Bill correctly points out, there's good reason for healthy skepticism. (Not
the least of which is the track record of a very complicated and "sporty"
landing sequence.)
D.
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