[AR] Re: SpaceX F9 Launch/Update -- Live Link
- From: Ben Brockert <wikkit@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: "arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 23 Dec 2015 13:58:51 -0500
On Wed, Dec 23, 2015 at 10:34 AM, James Bowery <jabowery@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Moreover, they can work out the reuse/refurbishment bugs at a lower cost per
flight, which means their industrial learning curve will be better.
They've done four or so suborbital flights and spent around a billion
dollars. SpaceX made four orbital flight attempts for less than half
that. BO is too opaque to make any realistic arguments about their
marginal flight test cost.
I think
it quite possible if not probable that Blue Origin will be the first to
launch a commercial satellite to _orbit_ on a reused first stage and do so
economically.
That's just crazy. SpaceX's fifth orbital launch site is further along
than Blue's first. The amount of infrastructure they need to get in
place, in addition to having to develop an entire vehicle and get it
through infant mortality, puts them far behind SpaceX who has a used
first stage sitting on a pad right now. I have friends who work at
Blue, and I'd love to see them be really successful really quickly,
but the flame ducts remain unicorn-free.
I'll counter your prediction and say that SpaceX will launch the first
of the perpetually delayed Falcon Heavy before Blue Origin reaches
200km, let alone orbit.
Ben
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