Presumably for now, people riding used rockets will get a discount over
those who (like NASA?) insist on shiny new ones. At some point, though,
people will realize that rockets with a demonstrated track record will
be preferable to those fresh from the factory, which might suffer from
an infant mortality problem as occurred in June. At which point, they'll
have to discount to people who ride for the first time. As I noted
yesterday, no paying customer rides an airplane on its first flight, and
I prefer knowing that a vehicle has many successful flights under its
belt.
We're entering a world in which we will be trading infant mortality over
wear/fatigue in terms of reliability (just as aviation has always been).
I think that people who worry about used rockets can't get their heads
around what should be the same philosophy that drives every other form
of transportation, because they've been warped by six decades of riding
munitions.
On 2015-12-23 12:26, Ben Brockert wrote:
http://spacenews.com/falcon-9s-second-stage-restart-was-just-as-important-as-sticking-the-landing/
"SES on Dec. 22 said all the information it had from the launch
reinforced its plans to launch SES-9 by late January aboard the
upgraded Falcon 9. SES, which has four other launches contracted with
SpaceX after SES-9, has stated it is willing to be the first
commercial customer to launch with a used Falcon 9 first stage.
"Even before the Orbcomm launch, SES officials had informed their
insurance underwriters that they were willing to be the inaugural
customer of the Falcon 9 upgrade even if it meant doing without a
launch insurance policy."
On Wed, Dec 23, 2015 at 3:14 PM, Stephen Van Sickle <sjv2006@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Wed, Dec 23, 2015 at 7:34 AM, James Bowery <jabowery@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I think it quite possible if not probable that Blue Origin will be the
first to launch a commercial satellite to _orbit_ on a reused first stage
and do so economically.
How do you figure that? Blue Origin isn't close to orbiting anything at all
at this point, whereas SpaceX does so routinely. Having now recovered
intact a first stage from an orbital launch, SpaceX could give it a try on
their very next launch, if it were a high enough priority for them to do so
out of their own pocket with a dummy payload. More likely they will take a
conservative approach and test the hell out of several recovered stages
until a paying customer comes along willing to use a recovered stage. But
even that could be less than a year.