I’m extremely skeptical that there are any facts known to Stratcom that are
not know to the team at Aerospace; differing floating point errors is
amusingly possible.
Bill
On Sun, Apr 1, 2018 at 6:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
When I saw that I asked myself, what does Stratcom know that Aerospace
doesn't - or vice-versa. Better data on the vehicle structure, on
detailed atmospheric conditions, or both, would be one guess.
FWIW, it was on a short list of different-sourced predictions, and those
two had by far the smallest stated uncertainties. And a 30-minute
disagreement. With Stratcom's differing in the direction Aerospace's
has been evolving as the end gets closer, which could mean something.
Or it could just mean they're running the same data into the same code
but with different floating-point packages.
Twenty minutes till Aerospace's midpoint, fifty till Stratcom's.
And as always with sims, of course, the real-world system being
simulated will to some unknown degree do what it darn well pleases.
Henry
On 4/1/2018 4:53 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
Stratcom has a capability independent from circle A? The very point ofwrote:
Aerospace was to do this work so warfighters could focus....
Bill
On Sun, Apr 1, 2018 at 3:31 PM Henry Vanderbilt
<hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Argue with Aerospace Corp, not me.
FWIW earlier I saw mention of a Stratcom prediction showing it a
half-hour later than Aerospace. That'd put the center of the window
over Africa/the Middle east, FWIW.
If we're still taking guesses for the pool, I'll go for a bit over a
half-orbit late, bringing it down right across China.
Henry
On 4/1/2018 1:38 PM, Monroe L. King Jr. wrote:
> Naa I still say they are 4 hours off projected from Henry's post.
Unless
> the space weather changes, that puts it very close to tomorrow
our time.
>
> Gonna be fun to see when and where. Any other predictions based on
> empirical data? Or a guess? Just for fun!
>
> Monroe
>
>> -------- Original Message --------
>> Subject: [AR] Re: Tiangong Reentry Window Narrowing
>> From: John DeMar <jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx>>
>> Date: Sun, April 01, 2018 1:18 pm
>> To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>
>>
>> No fooling, it's coming in today. Refresh this page:
>> http://www.aerospace.org/CORDSuploads/TiangongStoryboard.png
>>
>> -John DeMar
>> https://www.linkedin.com/in/jsdemar/
>>
>>
>> On Sun, Apr 1, 2018 at 2:08 PM, Monroe L. King Jr. <
>> monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
>>http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/
>>> I say it overshoots by 8-12 hours maybe more.
>>>
>>> Monroe
>>>
>>>> -------- Original Message --------
>>>> Subject: [AR] Tiangong Reentry Window Narrowing
>>>> From: Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
>>>> Date: Sun, April 01, 2018 8:34 am
>>>> To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> According to
>>>>
>>>> as of a few minutes ago the reentry window for the defunctChinese
>>>> station has narrowed to +- 2.5 hours either side of ten after
midnight
>>>> UTC tonight.
>>>>
>>>> That's 2:40 pm to 7:40 pm this afternoon/evening, MST (or PDT)
(UTC-7).
>>>>
>>>> The general trend over the past couple of days has been for
the window
>>>> to slide later, FWIW.
>>>>
>>>> Looking at the ground track, the current projected middle of
the window
>>>> is way out over the Pacific. Alas for free local fireworks,
the overall
>>>> window comes nowhere near North America. Southern South
America, much
>>>> of Africa, Central and East Asia, yes. As for you Aussies,
absent a
>>>> major late change, no Skylab-Tiangong twofer. Oh well!
>>>>
>>>> I notice that a bit less than one orbit after current projected
>>>> mid-window, it'll be going right over the middle of China,
which could
>>>> make for a spectacular show for the people who paid for it.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Henry
>>>
>>>
>
>
