https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZvXiubWsAIhz48.jpg:large
On Sun, Apr 1, 2018 at 7:26 PM, Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
wrote:
Yup, the Chinese are saying it did reenter at 0015 UTC over the South
Pacific, here:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/01/china-tiangong-1-to-re-enter
-atmosphere-over-south-atlantic-on-monday.html
Where'd you see the info?
Henry
On 4/1/2018 6:20 PM, John DeMar wrote:
Re-entered 0016 UTC Apr 2 over South Pacific.
On Sun, Apr 1, 2018 at 6:34 PM, Henry Vanderbilt <
hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Meanwhile, unless anyone has a sighting report from South America,
the next indication whether it's still in orbit should come from
Ascension Island radar in a little bit.
Henry
On 4/1/2018 5:20 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
I’m extremely skeptical that there are any facts known to
Stratcom that are not know to the team at Aerospace; differing
floating point errors is amusingly possible.
Bill
On Sun, Apr 1, 2018 at 6:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt
<hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>> wrote:
When I saw that I asked myself, what does Stratcom know
that Aerospace
doesn't - or vice-versa. Better data on the vehicle
structure, on
detailed atmospheric conditions, or both, would be one guess.
FWIW, it was on a short list of different-sourced
predictions, and those
two had by far the smallest stated uncertainties. And a
30-minute
disagreement. With Stratcom's differing in the direction
Aerospace's
has been evolving as the end gets closer, which could mean
something.
Or it could just mean they're running the same data into
the same code
but with different floating-point packages.
Twenty minutes till Aerospace's midpoint, fifty till
Stratcom's.
And as always with sims, of course, the real-world system
being
simulated will to some unknown degree do what it darn well
pleases.
Henry
On 4/1/2018 4:53 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
> Stratcom has a capability independent from circle A?
The very
point of
> Aerospace was to do this work so warfighters could
focus....
>
> Bill
>
> On Sun, Apr 1, 2018 at 3:31 PM Henry Vanderbilt
> <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>> wrote:
>
> Argue with Aerospace Corp, not me.
>
> FWIW earlier I saw mention of a Stratcom prediction
showing it a
> half-hour later than Aerospace. That'd put the
center of the
window
> over Africa/the Middle east, FWIW.
>
> If we're still taking guesses for the pool, I'll go
for a bit
over a
> half-orbit late, bringing it down right across China.
>
> Henry
>
> On 4/1/2018 1:38 PM, Monroe L. King Jr. wrote:
> > Naa I still say they are 4 hours off projected from
Henry's post.
> Unless
> > the space weather changes, that puts it very
close to tomorrow
> our time.
> >
> > Gonna be fun to see when and where. Any other
predictions
based on
> > empirical data? Or a guess? Just for fun!
> >
> > Monroe
> >
> >> -------- Original Message --------
> >> Subject: [AR] Re: Tiangong Reentry Window
Narrowing
> >> From: John DeMar <jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx ;<mailto:jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx>>
<mailto:jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx ;<mailto:jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx ;<mailto:jsdemar@xxxxxxxxx>>>>
> >> Date: Sun, April 01, 2018 1:18 pm
> >> To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> <mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> <mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>
> >>
> >>
> >> No fooling, it's coming in today. Refresh this
page:
> >>
http://www.aerospace.org/CORDSuploads/TiangongStoryboard.png
<http://www.aerospace.org/CORDSuploads/TiangongStoryboard.png>
> >>
> >> -John DeMar
> >> https://www.linkedin.com/in/jsdemar/
<https://www.linkedin.com/in/jsdemar/>
> >>
> >>
> >> On Sun, Apr 1, 2018 at 2:08 PM, Monroe L. King
Jr. <
> >> monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
<mailto:monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;<mailto:monroe@teamprometheus.
org>
<mailto:monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:monroe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>> wrote:
> >>
> >>> I say it overshoots by 8-12 hours maybe more.
> >>>
> >>> Monroe
> >>>
> >>>> -------- Original Message --------
> >>>> Subject: [AR] Tiangong Reentry Window Narrowing
> >>>> From: Henry Vanderbilt
<hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>
> >>>> Date: Sun, April 01, 2018 8:34 am
> >>>> To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> <mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ;<mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> According to
> >>>>
>
http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-
1-reentry/
<http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong
-1-reentry/>
> >>>> as of a few minutes ago the reentry window for
the
defunct Chinese
> >>>> station has narrowed to +- 2.5 hours either
side of ten
after
> midnight
> >>>> UTC tonight.
> >>>>
> >>>> That's 2:40 pm to 7:40 pm this
afternoon/evening, MST
(or PDT)
> (UTC-7).
> >>>>
> >>>> The general trend over the past couple of days
has been for
> the window
> >>>> to slide later, FWIW.
> >>>>
> >>>> Looking at the ground track, the current
projected
middle of
> the window
> >>>> is way out over the Pacific. Alas for free
local
fireworks,
> the overall
> >>>> window comes nowhere near North America.
Southern South
> America, much
> >>>> of Africa, Central and East Asia, yes. As for
you Aussies,
> absent a
> >>>> major late change, no Skylab-Tiangong twofer.
Oh well!
> >>>>
> >>>> I notice that a bit less than one orbit after
current
projected
> >>>> mid-window, it'll be going right over the
middle of China,
> which could
> >>>> make for a spectacular show for the people who
paid for it.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> Henry
> >>>
> >>>
> >
> >
>
