[opendtv] Re: News: Analyst Predicts IPTV Takeover
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 12 Oct 2005 08:47:41 -0400
At 4:36 PM -0400 10/11/05, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
> > And why would they [FOTA broadcasters] be immune?
>
>First, because they provide content for "free," which
>can be competition for those providing content over
>the Internet for free.
But broadcasters will only offer a tiny fraction of what will be
available, and their stuff will be filled with commercials, as this
is the basis for how they monetize distribution.
>
>Secondly, because they can provide "live" programming,
>like sports and news, that the public Internet stored
>content would not compete with directly.
I listen and sometimes watch live events via the Internet today,
especially when I cannot access them via broadcasters or cable. This
capability is only going to improve over time. Broadcasters have no
unique advantage in this space; when they pay millions for rights to
broadcast an event, they typically do not get the Internet rights.
Content owners understand that they will soon be able to go direct to
the consumer, and they are not likely to pad the pockets of middlemen.
>
>Third because they don't require subsription to one
>particular provider, much as content from any Internet
>site does not require dedicated subscription to one
>provider.
Closer to reality here. TV delivered via the Internet will have a
huge advantage over multi-channel and broadcast distribution. You are
correct, that people will not be required to pay a subscription fee
for stuff that they do not want. Broadcasters could compete here,
however, they have shown NO INTEREST in offering services like
Freeview - they are only interested in developing new revenue streams
from the people who are actually distributing their product. I can
"TIVO" broadcast programming now - the problem is that hardly any of
the stuff they offer is worth watching.
>Fourth, because they don't suffer the congestion
>problems one would expect if popular content is made
>available in the public Internet.
Those problems are transient. We have discussed MANY times how to get
around these bottlenecks. It's all a matter of scheduling and
efficient use of IP multicasts. Where broadcasters COULD become a
significant factor, is if they change their business models and focus
on multicasts of popular content, together with open access to
content providers who will pay them to deliver their bits.
You are still looking at the world through 1980's glasses.
Regards
Craig
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