[opendtv] Re: News: Analyst Predicts IPTV Takeover
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 10 Oct 2005 12:57:03 -0400
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
>At 5:54 PM -0400 10/9/05, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>
>
>>That the public Internet will be used to provide
>>content in different ways, e.g. as a next obvious step
>>to services like Netflix, is what I think these
>>analysts are trying to express.
>>
>>
>
>Correct Bert. The article clearly states that the long term threat is
>the direct delivery of TV content to consumers using the public
>Internet. It clearly states that the cable companies and telcos will
>become bandwidth providers, losing thier stranglehold on the content
>delivery market.
>
>
>
>>As an example of the confusion the article created, it
>>should have explained that the delivery of video
>>entertainment CONTENT via the public Internet is *just
>>as much a threat* to IPTV networks as it is to cable TV
>>networks. Your Verizon IPTV service is no less
>>vulnerable than is Comcast, to the (especially if free)
>>delivery of TV content over the public Internet.
>>
>>
>
>It DID state this.
>
>
>
>>The report predicts that unless cable, telco and satellite companies
>>adopt Internet-based video delivery models, "their value in the new
>>value chain will become limited to data transport services." But
>>potentially very profitable data transport services.
>>
>>
>
>
>
>>Broadband to the home enables all these services. But
>>these same broadband providers are those who are also
>>providing the walled garden environments for TV and
>>telephone service.
>>
>>
>
>Very good Bert!
>
>And the analyst who wrote this report clearly states that it is the
>walled garden services that are threatened. leaving cable and the
>telcos in the broadband business. The article does not get into
>details about the problems that this may present for DBS, which is at
>a severe disadvantage in the provisioning of broadband to the public.
>But DBS could move to a pull model, where subscribers would determine
>which content is sent via IP multicasts for local caching in their
>PVRs.
>
>Regards
>Craig
>
Yes but the DBS providers still have the rain fade and delay problems
which may not be significant for most content but is for some. Some was
enough in our case since we have migrated to cable from satellite
because of rain fade.
Stratolittes and 60 to 90 GHz redundant mesh networks backed by
intercity fiber are still my favorite long term bets. Both offer easy to
heal and very robust networks that would survive such things as terror
or weather related attacks better than the alternatives. If any part is
damaged or destroyed they can be replaced quickly. Stratollites will not
have the delay that satellites have and will have to power to punch
through weather while not being affected by it. Wireless fiber such as
60 to 80 GHz will be super redundant and again easily repairable.
Copper and satellites both go away for the most part. Satellite remains
a long distance event delivery system. More of a niche system IMO. Fiber
in cities has to compete with the ability of individuals to connect with
each other with inexpensive radios directly with a limited number of
fiber connections to the national network mostly intercity fiber which
there is a lot of still dark.
DBS is at most risk while cable and the Telcos can morph to the new
models either by buying up successful early entrepreneurial startups or
building their own.
Bob Miller
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